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Dec 29-Jan 2 potential storm event


Brian D
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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

A miss west or east is on the table, but I think I'm a little more concerned about a deeper/western track (yes it goes against the trends that we have often seen in recent years).  Ridging is pretty robust in the east and this type of upper level look with such a robust southern wave scares me.  Would be nice if the system behind it could act as a bit of a kicker to limit how far west our system comes.

Of course this assumes that the upper level pattern actually ends up looking like this.

500hv.conus.thumb.png.a95c0d1ca1b825f9d596d4e0e55f5de0.png

I'm honestly surprised how east the secondary low goes with how the upper levels look. You would think this could trend west given how wrapped up it gets

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

A miss west or east is on the table, but I think I'm a little more concerned about a deeper/western track (yes it goes against the trends that we have often seen in recent years).  Ridging is pretty robust in the east and this type of upper level look with such a robust southern wave scares me.  Would be nice if the system behind it could act as a bit of a kicker to limit how far west our system comes.

Of course this assumes that the upper level pattern actually ends up looking like this.

 

Same, rainer is the risk 

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Way too much commentary for an 84 hour NAM, but the end of the run has a weak sauce 1009 mb low in Iowa.

Transition zone is present with lingering cold air at the surface thanks to the surface high in place earlier on.  In theory, a weaker surface low would mean less of a pressure gradient, thus weaker sfc winds, thus slower warming at the surface compared to having a stronger low, but the counter to that is that it's still southerly/southeasterly flow out ahead of the surface low and many areas don't have any snowcover to try to slow down the temperature rise.

sfcwind_mslp.us_mw.thumb.png.2d3215c86849eeb37bcaa3edf824b997.png

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.thumb.png.37931b717eeb4aa8c65165ba07b41656.png

sfct.us_mw.thumb.png.13b3e37356dbae33903bdb8c6286a8c9.png

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2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I don't wanna get bitten in the ass for saying this, but I think if we can find a happy middle ground between GFS and CMC, we'll have our first real storm of the year here in N IL.

 

Problem is that im not sure if 1 solution will happen without the other.  

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My own modelling is showing low pressure moving E to NE with it over the C Lakes by New Years Eve, and New Years Day, (in my holiday forecast thread) I show high pressure over the upper Midwest with low pressure over the E Lakes, which I posted 2 months ago. I had thought it could be a clipper sinking in over the plains, back then, moving east, but looks like a CO low set up. A secondary low moving up from the south over the east lakes wasn't on my radar for the 1st, but sneaky things do happen :)

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10 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Problem is that im not sure if 1 solution will happen without the other.  

I'm talking strictly about the secondary lows. Honestly, even I with my boundless optimism realize that chances are we won't manage much from low #1 -if anything- but as long as low #2 steals the show, that's okay with me :)

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25 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I'm talking strictly about the secondary lows. Honestly, even I with my boundless optimism realize that chances are we won't manage much from low #1 -if anything- but as long as low #2 steals the show, that's okay with me :)

Looks like weather.com is on board with this 

"New Storm System to Arrive Sunday Starting in Southwest - Videos from The Weather Channel | weather.com" https://weather.com/storms/winter/video/new-storm-system-arrives-late-sunday-in-the-southwest

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3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Looks like weather.com is on board with this 

"New Storm System to Arrive Sunday Starting in Southwest - Videos from The Weather Channel | weather.com" https://weather.com/storms/winter/video/new-storm-system-arrives-late-sunday-in-the-southwest

Yeah. I don't want to jump the gun, but I guess what it comes down to now is weather we might get some snow, or the whopping that the GFS shows to our east (and the GEM to our west). The GEFS has some strong members but lots of meh ones too. Of course, I'll take anything but let's be real here... We're in it to win it.

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I am guessing that at least 90% of the time when a surface low comes out of the GOM into Louisiana in winter, you don't have to worry about it raining in Chicago because the track is gonna tend to have a significant enough easterly component to keep it far enough south.

But then there's the other percentage of time, when the track is basically due north into the Quad Cities.

floop-gfs_para-2020122618.prateptype_cat.conus.gif.56d688701c8190ebc52df117190d3093.gif

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