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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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10 minutes ago, yoda said:

I think as others have said in this thread that if that h5 piece is further north or doesn't exist then this will come further north... though if there is enough cold air for it is another question.  Haven't done a deep dive into 2mT or 850 temps on the 12z UKMET 

Every time we need a sw in the ns to go south or stay south, they go north without fail. Watch this one go to Jacksonville, straight from Quebec lol

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13 minutes ago, yoda said:

I think as others have said in this thread that if that h5 piece is further north or doesn't exist then this will come further north... though if there is enough cold air for it is another question.  Haven't done a deep dive into 2mT or 850 temps on the 12z UKMET 

I think it all depends on that piece 

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This is a tricky little setup. This little piece that’s killing us doesn’t even exist on land yet and then it gets kicked south by the pinwheel over Labrador that won’t form until Wednesday and it forms from the energy that created yesterday’s rain. Really interesting but I would think really hard to nail down from this far out. It wouldn’t take much for the scenario I just described to not happen at all.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps with a bump north . No surprise...following the op.

No way especially if I lived in DC and south would I look past The weekend system. I much rather need a north trend with 100 hours to go then a south trend .....1000 times over .

Just saw the Navgem . Wow...its wayyyyy north lol

Over the past 5 years or so I’ve observed often guidance shifts south with east coast storms in the 3-7 day range before shifting north again slightly the final 72 hours. But the north shift isn’t this huge hundreds of miles one like in the 90s and 2000s.   We want this to get a little closer then it currently is by the 72 hour threshold to have a legit chance. Still time. 
 

Navgem is interesting but it’s way off the consensus on a few things. It’s weaker with the 50/50 and washes that northern SW out completely so there is no pinwheel effect holding the 50/50 in and it escapes in time allowing the storm to climb the coast.  It’s also a lot weaker with the southern cutoff and has higher heights all across the east too which is why it’s a warmer solution. 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

GFS is weaker with the s/w + Quebec kicker so precip doesn’t get north of the NC/VA border.  It’s basically rain for the SE except in the NC mountains.

ensembles always seem to give hope....

before the OP Crushes them even worse than the prior run

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

GFS is weaker with the s/w + Quebec kicker so precip doesn’t get north of the NC/VA border.  It’s basically rain for the SE except in the NC mountains.

i bet the ukmet will be the most south solution during the 00z suite

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

And how did that work out for you? I am really beginning to believe you are just here for the digital snow and not the real thing.

ive already made that pretty clear several times....digital snow excites more than the real thing with the exception of Heavy snow falling

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