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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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This weekend deal seems highly dependent upon that piece of energy in the ns that rotates around just at the right time. As far as I can tell that comes from the gulf of Alaska region originally. It isn’t a stretch to think that could end differently in reality as opposed to what is modeled.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This weekend deal seems highly dependent upon that piece of energy in the ns that rotates around just at the right time. As far as I can tell that comes from the gulf of Alaska region originally. It isn’t a stretch to think that could end differently in reality as opposed to what is modeled.

I agree. There was enough of a shift between the 0z and 6z Euro to make a small difference, and it doesn't show up as well but can be seen on the mean. Unless it ends up being weaker/lifting out quicker,  we need that shortwave further west/southwest to partially phase sooner. That will tug the low further NW. That is what the good runs of the Para were doing btw.

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Just my 2c but I think our best bet would be for the NS energy to trend weaker or just go away.  The 50/50 placement/shape hasn't really changed and I dont see how we could ever get that NS piece to drop far enough west.  Its gonna rotate around the 50/50 and that feature is being modeled pretty consistently across most guidance. 

I am sure there are other minor features that could change the final motion of that NS piece but due to my amateur eye nothing is sticking out to me.  

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6 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Just my 2c but I think our best bet would be for the NS energy to trend weaker or just go away.  The 50/50 placement/shape hasn't really changed and I dont see how we could ever get that NS piece to drop far enough west.  Its gonna rotate around the 50/50 and that feature is being modeled pretty consistently across most guidance. 

I am sure there are other minor features that could change the final motion of that NS piece but due to my amateur eye nothing is sticking out to me.  

I agree. In order to get that piece to phase quicker I would think it would have to be a more potent piece to begin with and it doesn’t look to be that. It’s also noteworthy that this piece is currently modeled nowhere closer to what it was just a couple of days ago.

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That vort you guys talking about actually originates from the same shortwave that the main ULL does. It breaks off once it hits the Pac coast. Then it eventually  crosses Canada and is forced south by the 50/50. Our shortwave will be onshore by 18z today so hopefully the 18z runs look good

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I agree. In order to get that piece to phase quicker I would think it would have to be a more potent piece to begin with and it doesn’t look to be that. It’s also noteworthy that this piece is currently modeled nowhere closer to what it was just a couple of days ago.

What's amazing is that piece is pretty weak and insignificant when it enters the west coast but it still plows right through the block and re-emerges to meet up with the 50/50.  I guess another possible trend would be that the blocking over Hudson Bay shreds/weakens it. 

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2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

What's amazing is that piece is pretty weak and insignificant when it enters the west coast but it still plows right through the block and re-emerges to meet up with the 50/50.  I guess another possible trend would be that the blocking over Hudson Bay shreds/weakens it. 

Wondering if at some point during the next eight weeks we get an event that was poorly modeled because the disturbance came from the Northern Jet and a data sparse region, some metal talked about that early in the season,  just wondering if that might actually be the case down the road.

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4 minutes ago, frd said:

Wondering if at some point during the next eight weeks we get an event that was poorly modeled because the disturbance came from the Northern Jet and a data sparse region, some metal talked about that early in the season,  just wondering if that might actually be the case down the road.

I also wonder if the scattershot of sw's calms down a bit once we see the west coast ridging start to pop.  Like PSU said...certainly not a long track pattern.   

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7 minutes ago, frd said:

Wondering if at some point during the next eight weeks we get an event that was poorly modeled because the disturbance came from the Northern Jet and a data sparse region, some metal talked about that early in the season,  just wondering if that might actually be the case down the road.

It is my understanding that they continually add more data receptors in those sparse regions and are continually making improvements. Not saying the sparse data region think isn't valid....but I think the days of using that as a forecasting crutch are likely behind us. 

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It is my understanding that they continually add more data receptors in those sparse regions and are continually making improvements. Not saying the sparse data region think isn't valid....but I think the days of using that as a forecasting crutch are likely behind us. 

The improvement of satellite derived data has helped a lot. Of course, having a balloon or other sounding is the gold standard - but modern weather satellites can sample those "data sparse" regions pretty well at this point. I would agree that the days of using that as an explanation are mostly behind us. Add in aircraft data and you've got a nice data suite available for the models even without having balloon launches everywhere. 

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5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The improvement of satellite derived data has helped a lot. Of course, having a balloon or other sounding is the gold standard - but modern weather satellites can sample those "data sparse" regions pretty well at this point. I would agree that the days of using that as an explanation are mostly behind us. Add in aircraft data and you've got a nice data suite available for the models even without having balloon launches everywhere. 

But how much airplane data is there these days?

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3 minutes ago, Ajb said:

But how much airplane data is there these days?

Plenty. 

https://www.flightradar24.com/42.95,-108.11/4

We are way up from the lows during the period earlier in 2020 when flights grinded to a halt. Even with less traveling, the airlines are required to maintain minimum levels of service in many cases. Sure, there's probably cancelations and such - but airplanes are still flying every day. 

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@Ralph Wiggum - I think your comment also applies to the people who refer to 6z and 18z as "off runs" and then use that basis to throw them out if they don't show what the weenies like. Plenty of new data is assimilated into the models on off hours. Sure - not the 12z and 00z balloons....but it's not like it's "stale" data. But...weenies gonna weenie. 

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14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Plenty. 

https://www.flightradar24.com/42.95,-108.11/4

We are way up from the lows during the period earlier in 2020 when flights grinded to a halt. Even with less traveling, the airlines are required to maintain minimum levels of service in many cases. Sure, there's probably cancelations and such - but airplanes are still flying every day. 

That is a very cool site....thanks for sharing. Sitting outside tracking overhead flights and seeing their destination on the site. Often pondered at times where certain flights were headed. 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is confirming in the week 2 period that the SPV and coldest temperatures will shift over to Eurasia with the SSW. So we just need to work on getting it cold enough for snow with the right storm track. Maybe there could be some Arctic air by later in the month if heights build enough north of Alaska.

 

Yeah but with a good enough Pacific and blocking, we shouldn't have too much of a problem getting cold air to drain from Eurasia to the eastern U.S.

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23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That is a very cool site....thanks for sharing. Sitting outside tracking overhead flights and seeing their destination on the site. Often pondered at times where certain flights were headed. 

I know this is OT - but I'll quickly add that they have a mobile app that even has a "augmented reality" feature where you can point your phone camera around and it'll show you the flights on your screen that are visible in your line-of-sight. You won't see military flights on there for the most part, but commercial, Project Loon balloons, and recreational aircraft all show up. It's been helpful when I hear a helicopter fly low over and I'm trying to figure out who it is. 

If nothing else, goes to show you that even when air travel is "slow" there's still a crap ton of planes flying around up there.

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20 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Yeah but with a good enough Pacific and blocking, we shouldn't have too much of a problem getting cold air to drain from Eurasia to the eastern U.S.

Yep, we don't need some kind of polar air mass to get snow in the heart of climo winter here....in fact of the PV was sitting over southern Canada, it'd probably be suppression or cold/dry.  09/10 wasn't a super cold winter but we timed things well with the blocking and ridging.  If that mid-month EPS looks come to fruition, we'll be fine.  

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