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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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@griteater in the SE forum on why Euro moved off NC coast and didn't give us a hit this run (he explained it well so I borrowed it to post in here)

1 minute ago, griteater said:

It looks similar to GFS v16 at 500mb, just not as strong.  Spoke revolving around the 50/50 low drops due south into NY/VT, and that collapses the amplitude of the height field off the Mid-Atlantic coast, so the wave just slides east off NC.  Who knows which model is correct, but the west to east slider like GFS v16 and Euro are what many in NC east of the Mtns and Foothills would want, and the more amped CMC/UKMet is what the Mtns/N Foothills/into VA would want.

29D8Pjt.gif

 

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As of now this is looking like a true southern slider. Outside of extreme lower S MD over to Salisbury, those never work out for the rest of us. We need that low to at least turn the corner a bit  and gain some latitude as it is exiting the coast. Whether that can occur or not largely depends on what happens with the energy rotating down in eastern Canada under the block. It doesn't appear like it will be able to get out in front/out of the way in time, but maybe it trends a bit further west and partially phases sooner.

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14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

As of now this is looking like a true southern slider. Outside of extreme lower S MD over to Salisbury, those never work out for the rest of us. We need that low to at least turn the corner a bit  and gain some latitude as it is exiting the coast. Whether that can occur or not largely depends on what happens with the energy rotating down in eastern Canada under the block. It doesn't appear like it will be able to get out in front/out of the way in time, but maybe it trends a bit further west and partially phases sooner.

Of course things trend shitty overnight. First we had a gazillion rainstorms now we have suppression. We can't win shit

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5 hours ago, yoda said:

4-8" storm on the Euro for most on the 12th... except for those west of the i81 corridor

After the 11/12 th the period near the 16 th has my interest. As you pointed out previously, the GEFS looks great and the Pac further improves. Analog guidance backs up the threat periods.  I am ready for some snow !  

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13 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Best pattern since '96.  

Feet and feet of blocking.  We're all gonna be exhausted from shoveling all that pattern by April.

This post would prob make more sense in April. It’s only January 4th and the “best pattern since 96’” is still at least a week away. Other than 2009, there has almost always been a dearth of snow prior to January in the DC metro (at least in the past thirty years I’ve lived here).

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10 minutes ago, frd said:

@CAPE. Can you post the 6z GEFS snow mean, I am hearing it went up, possibly in a significant manner.  

I dont want to steal WB WIll's thunder. It looks the usual climo-ish meh.

EPS is a little better, esp for central/western NC and VA. Pretty strong indication of the southern slider.

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Here is 6z euro. Look at how that little lobe almost becomes an extension of the 50/50 and squashes the flow east. Right now euro and gfs consistent with showing that, but Ukie and cmc don’t really have that feature. Since a phase doesn’t seem likely root for that feature to be as for north or non existent as possible.

1D041D73-6B78-48A1-BC94-4B093A7EC0EF.png

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I dont want to steal WB WIll's thunder. It looks the usual climo-ish meh.

EPS is a little better, esp for central/western NC and VA. Pretty strong indication of the southern slider.

Thanks,  time to let the pattern evolve, but It does look Meh.....

However, I refuse to go to the dark side. Still waiting on the 6 inch mean for our area.   

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after all the posts of 500 mb driving factors lining up to give us a chance of snow, there is mostly 1 or 2 factors that don't and we end up with little or nothing. That is the story of winter in the MA. And that doesn't count the storms we get that aren't forecast correctly, like the blizzard of 66 the for 5 days, wasn't going to affect us

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