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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They didn’t really start to spit out crazy looks for that until like 100-120 hrs out. And there was a lot less complexity to that synoptic setup. 

i mean while it was a bust it wasnt a complete bust. The fact that it stayed all frozen was a big win for me

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52 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Agreed, but never doubt backups playing for next years contract lol. I wish we would start Sudfield. I got my 76ers anyway.

ralph I’m surprised the ensembles don’t interest you... this is earlier run but that’s a good signal 

484F8FA6-5BA9-4DDC-A86F-6A222575AC4A.png

Why would you wanna start sudfield?

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54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

3-5” deal verbatim. Lots of room there for a bigger outcome IMO. Euro nearly phases the shortwaves but then just kind of shears it out. A little odd. Glad something still showed that storm window after the rest of the 12z suite mostly made a list out of me.

If that SW diving through Montana is ANYWHERE else that’s a bigger event. Closer and it likely phases in. Further and it doesn’t dampen and kick it. Get that anywhere but there (wave spacing wise) and that was a bigger deal. But the longwave pattern on the euro from day 5-10 is beautiful 

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5 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

and 12/26/2010.. which featured big snow to our south and northeast

Why does everyone always point this storm out? Am I the only one up here now that experienced that storm while remembering @Ji saying he wanted to kick a puppy he was so mad. I got 17” a couple miles south of Norfolk in that storm.

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z EPS sets up decent western ridge and maintains the stout -NAO. Cross polar flow tries to show up around Jan 16th. This is a signal that has existed for the past 24 hours:

Not sure I could draw up a better long wave pattern for big snow storms for us.

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7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Why does everyone always point this storm out? Am I the only one up here now that experienced that storm while remembering @Ji saying he wanted to kick a puppy he was so mad. I got 17” a couple miles south of Norfolk in that storm.

it was the worst tracking experience of my live.. worse than March 2013. You have to remember it was Christmas and up until 12/24 Baltimore was forecast to get 6-10 inches.  

It turned out to be snow tv for me... 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I can’t see this as a HECS setup so I was pretty shocked by that analog list. GEFS still quite a bit of spread and mostly south. 

I can kind of get why those analogs show up.  If you just look at the longwave pattern its almost identical to all those HECS storms.  Even the euro has a H5 track pretty similar to some of those big storms.  But there are details within the pattern that put a cap on the potential of this.  The main limiting factor is the lack of true cold.  Most of those storms had a much more favorable antecedent airmass.  Without that not only does it create precip type problems...it also means we won't see such an expansive or intense WAA precip shield to the north of the system and it could inhibit the intensity of the system because of less baroclinicity.  There are also more SW's flying around that could run interference here then in most of those cases.  All that said though I do think this might have more upside then typically could be assumed from the current surface look on guidance.  Often things "trend" towards what that guidance suggests the pattern produced historically.  But those factors probably cap this at a lower level event then those.  

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40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure I could draw up a better long wave pattern for big snow storms for us.

It's a beaut Clark

The western ridge is really going ape.  It's slightly west of ideal but with that kind of blocking I would prefer west then east.  Let thigs "try" to cut with that blocking...if we can inject cold (and with that look we should) I will take my chances with that v possible suppressed OTS solutions we can see if the western ridge is too far east.  

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's a beaut Clark

The western ridge is really going ape.  It's slightly west of ideal but with that kind of blocking I would prefer west then east.  Let thigs "try" to cut with that blocking...if we can inject cold (and with that look we should) I will take my chances with that v possible suppressed OTS solutions we can see if the western ridge is too far east.  

I think you'd see s/w ridges move east behind troughs.  And those ridges would get into the canonical position over Boise.  It's a fabulous look.  

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's a beaut Clark

The western ridge is really going ape.  It's slightly west of ideal but with that kind of blocking I would prefer west then east.  Let thigs "try" to cut with that blocking...if we can inject cold (and with that look we should) I will take my chances with that v possible suppressed OTS solutions we can see if the western ridge is too far east.  

So i'm curious would you have been able to write that up WITHOUT the slightly west of ideal part? Asking for Ji

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Nothing could possibly go wrong with this. The 5 year HECS wait is about to be over. The southeast folks are very angsty 

We are gonna miss the late week deal to the south, and the next week storm will rain here, while NW of fall line folks get snow. Book it. B)

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