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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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3 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

GFS track is perfect, right? Don't these things always shift north? LOL.

Yes.. usually after they get snow in the south then it gets pulled NW and gets the folks up north! DC Snow Hole! :D

I think we know this timeframe has potential - do we capitalize? Does anyone? We just have to wait and see how the actual outcome evolves! But waiting is the hardest part!

 

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3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Yes.. usually after they get snow in the south then it gets pulled NW and gets the folks up north! DC Snow Hole! :D

I think we know this timeframe has potential - do we capitalize? Does anyone? We just have to wait and see how the actual outcome evolves! But waiting is the hardest part!

 

I'm just glad we have something to track.

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Just now, Wonderdog said:

Today, it's a rainstorm. ;). Get off the ledge! That's what you taught me. 

I’m good.  Just thinking Ji would see it and cliff dive.  Truth is things look better than they have since I can remember.  I may get use out of those off road tires that I didn’t need other than they look cool

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It would be pretty remarkable if this solution holds for 6 days. My guess is it ends up more south, north, east or west but not right where it is now. I've learned this from reading experts like Jays Wintry Mix and JayH on twitter and Ji on here. Those three dudes know their stuff

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1 hour ago, WhiteoutMD said:

Not showing at the surface but with that pass  the precip would be more north and west I would imagine  I like it at this point  

You should definitely ignore precip output on operationals past 100 hours. Frankly even inside that you’re better off applying common sense physics. Once in range meso’s can help pin down details on the banding.

That said the op GFS is a sloppy phase and that’s part of why the ragged unhealthy precip at our latitude. You also won’t get as big a WAA shield to the north when there isn’t as much cold. You need cold to force the warm air to lift. Not enough depth of cold and the warm air just moves the cold and you don’t get the same fgen and VVs.  That’s another reason for the spring storm type precip representation. 

Now the para GFS fits your description. It phases at our latitude clean. It captures and pulls the surface low and tucks it in just off Ocean City.  That run is doing the typical not expansive enough CCB representation thing. That Para run would adjust to an area wide MECS if it actually verified like that. 

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