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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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1 hour ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman

Interesting.....

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Have you seen these tropical forcing charts referenced by the other day? Moves into Phase 7-8-1-2 type forcing from mid-Jan on
 
 
Image

I saw that. I remember talking to Ant in 2015 when the mjo plots looked hostile but we were in an icebox pattern.  Those auto generated plots can be misleading when there are conflicting wave signals. You have to look at the chi charts and convection and ascertain where the dominant tropical forcing will be. He thinks regardless of the Mjo plots the dominant forcing will be in the Pacific then IO in late January. Those are cold signals. 

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty classic look. Might help if there was a bit more spacing- that next wave is right on the heels.

1610096400-uDDFT2UDS9M.png

Also maybe a bit too much of a good thing to our NE.

Was thinking the same thing when I was mulling over guidance. That sucker will give us some serious wind for the Panhandle. Have the blocking a bit weaker to the north and someone could get lucky across VA. Smokey mountains would get popped pretty good on that presentation. 

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