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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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Man what an ugly overnight of analysis. It's easy to blame Ji but it all started with PSUs post of Ian's tweet it went downhill right after that led by the master himself. Pathetic...I'm moving in with mitchnick, Bob Chill and anyone else who left the board :hurrbear:

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7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Man what an ugly overnight of analysis. It's easy to blame Ji but it all started with PSUs post of Ian's tweet it went downhill right after that led by the master himself. Pathetic...I'm moving in with mitchnick, Bob Chill and anyone else who left the board :hurrbear:

LR op run meltdowns are the best.

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Can anyone post the over night AO ensemble run from the Euro.  

Would like to compare it against the CPC data. It appears that forecast drops the AO to - 4 SD near the 7 th of Jan. and after that the forecast members wash out, generally rising,  but with no clear consensus.  

 

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26 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

April

I wouldn't bet on that.. 

 

I've long thought that this is how GW plays out. Initially there's a golden period of snowstorms as the warming oceans provide the energy but there's still enough cold on the playing field.  We've seen that the past 10-20yrs around here and especially up into NE.  Then as the background state continues to warm you start to lose the snow and end up with rain. This will be the case for a decade or so until the next phase as subtropical conditions continue to move north and winter as we know and love it ceases to exist. 

 

I wish we'd just get to that point already so we didn't have to put up with all this cold rain anymore.  

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Just now, IronTy said:

I wouldn't bet on that.. 

 

I've long thought that this is how GW plays out. Initially there's a golden period of snowstorms as the warming oceans provide the energy but there's still enough cold on the playing field.  We've seen that the past 10-20yrs around here and especially up into NE.  Then as the background state continues to warm you start to lose the snow and end up with rain. This will be the case for a decade or so until the next phase as subtropical conditions continue to move north and winter as we know and love it ceases to exist. 

 

I wish we'd just get to that point already so we didn't have to put up with all this cold rain anymore.  

Well I'll be moving to Florida soon so I will never have to worry about snow again

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9 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Can anyone post the over night AO ensemble run from the Euro.  

Would like to compare it against the CPC data. It appears that forecast drops the AO to - 4 SD near the 7 th of Jan. and after that the forecast members wash out, generally rising,  but with no clear consensus.  

 

EPS mean has it very close to -4 around the 8th-9th, then it gradually rises back to -2 and it starts to slightly decline at the end of the run.

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11 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Well I'll be moving to Florida soon so I will never have to worry about snow again

In some odd way that might be a relief.   You don’t worry much about what’s not possible.  I know I will never get a heavy freezing spray warning...and the truth is I hardly think about it

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17 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Well I'll be moving to Florida soon so I will never have to worry about snow again

I wouldn't mind living in S Florida.  Lots of cool wildlife and unique habitat.  

Myself, living right up on the coast of the western shore in Calvert County even over the past 15yrs I've witnessed large changes due to sea level rise.  We have a lot of lowland swampy forest dominated by red maples.  Over time the brackish water floods the ground water and you have huge tree die offs because they can't handle the salty conditions.  Eventually I assume cypress will take over these areas but probably not on a time frame I will live to see. 

 

Even in the low portions of the forest on my property are changing.  I have a natural spring that feeds a stream that used to only flow in winter and barely any water at that. Over the past 10yrs the stream is now year-round and flows more like a small river in winter.  Erosion has lowered the streambed by 2-3ft just in the past five years, sort of like a mini grand canyon.  Soon I expect the red maples will start to die off and it will become open swamp. 

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33 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I wouldn't bet on that.. 

 

I've long thought that this is how GW plays out. Initially there's a golden period of snowstorms as the warming oceans provide the energy but there's still enough cold on the playing field.  We've seen that the past 10-20yrs around here and especially up into NE.  Then as the background state continues to warm you start to lose the snow and end up with rain. This will be the case for a decade or so until the next phase as subtropical conditions continue to move north and winter as we know and love it ceases to exist. 

 

I wish we'd just get to that point already so we didn't have to put up with all this cold rain anymore.  

I know there is a lot of frustration in southern Maryland over not seeing snow recently. Obviously, the earth is warming... however, pretty sure we don’t transition into a “subtropical climate” in the next ten years. Also not sure we saw a “golden age of snowstorms”... just been the same situation as always... we tend to go on hot streaks and of course... cold streaks.

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7 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I wouldn't mind living in S Florida.  Lots of cool wildlife and unique habitat.  

Myself, living right up on the coast of the western shore in Calvert County even over the past 15yrs I've witnessed large changes due to sea level rise.  We have a lot of lowland swampy forest dominated by red maples.  Over time the brackish water floods the ground water and you have huge tree die offs because they can't handle the salty conditions.  Eventually I assume cypress will take over these areas but probably not on a time frame I will live to see. 

 

Even in the low portions of the forest on my property are changing.  I have a natural spring that feeds a stream that used to only flow in winter and barely any water at that. Over the past 10yrs the stream is now year-round and flows more like a small river in winter.  Erosion has lowered the streambed by 2-3ft just in the past five years, sort of like a mini grand canyon.  Soon I expect the red maples will start to die off and it will become open swamp. 

Graphs, statistics, complex narratives cannot convey/underline the changes as you have, in such a descriptive understandable manner.  I pray  other members will do the same. Thank You. As always .....

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10 minutes ago, rclab said:

Graphs, statistics, complex narratives cannot convey/underline the changes as you have, in such a descriptive understandable manner.  I pray  other members will do the same. Thank You. As always .....

Wtf is going on here. I'm trying to lurk in peace and you fokes are killing me here lol

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23 minutes ago, chris21 said:

I know there is a lot of frustration in southern Maryland over not seeing snow recently. Obviously, the earth is warming... however, pretty sure we don’t transition into a “subtropical climate” in the next ten years. Also not sure we saw a “golden age of snowstorms”... just been the same situation as always... we tend to go on hot streaks and of course... cold streaks.

Yes I doubt as well it will be subtopics in 10yrs, I don't pretend to know the exact dates, but to me the general trend is pretty clear.  

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@CAPE

 

Sipping my coffee and enjoying my new monitor which shows these forecasts. 

 

What is your latest feelings ?  Seems the GEFS looks very nice ! And appears to get colder in time .

 

This is the window which some favor for a SECS Day 6 to 16 .

 

 

 

image.png.bf990c279bbf72ea5016f5b241d61b01.png

 

 

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28 minutes ago, chris21 said:

I know there is a lot of frustration in southern Maryland over not seeing snow recently. Obviously, the earth is warming... however, pretty sure we don’t transition into a “subtropical climate” in the next ten years. Also not sure we saw a “golden age of snowstorms”... just been the same situation as always... we tend to go on hot streaks and of course... cold streaks.

I got 90” of rain in 2018, which I just assumed was a once-in-a-lifetime outlier with some assistance from El Nino. But then I got nearly 80” last year from a La Nina. I’m not a climatologist but something isn’t right. The number of rainy days isn’t really increasing but the rain events are just carrying more moisture every time now here.

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