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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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25 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

My wife and I went to Cartagena in Feb last year...right before the shit hit the fan.  Beautiful country....great people/culture/food.  We loved it so much we discusses another trip there this winter.  Obviously that idea got put on the back burner quick.  Not gonna happen anytime in the near future but no doubt we will go back at some point.

You definitely gotta go back. Been way too many times to count. I think I might qualify for Colombia citizenship. 

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Somewhere to consider....

Aomori City
 
Well, you can build plenty of them in Aomori City in Japan, which is the snowiest city in the world. Aomori City receives a whopping 26 feet of snowfall on an average every year.

 

He would be miserable. He loves the chase. You can’t chase something if it happens everyday. 

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Somewhere to consider....

Aomori City
 
Well, you can build plenty of them in Aomori City in Japan, which is the snowiest city in the world. Aomori City receives a whopping 26 feet of snowfall on an average every year.

 

I had to Google Aomori city. The pics from that place are outrageous:

Aomori, Japan: Life in one of the world's snowiest cities - Album on Imgur

World's 3 Snowiest Cities All in Japan! | All About Japan

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He would be miserable. He loves the chase. You can’t chase something if it happens everyday. 

80% of my love of snow has become
Digital unfortunately. I used to enjoy it more when I was a kid and no models or radars. Usually I’m miserable during the event because it feels like it’s ending or it’s never as good as the model
Hype or its not snowing as hard as i want. I do love heavy snow falling though. Prob top 5 favorite thing of my life. There is also a huge sense of loss when it’s over. I hate seeing the sun out and snow plows and dripping crap. Snow says are always stressful for me. But nothing like a great model run 3 days out. But it’s torture knowing the next run won’t be as good

This is not a good hobby for me


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10 minutes ago, Ji said:


80% of my love of snow has become
Digital unfortunately. I used to enjoy it more when I was a kid and no models or radars. Usually I’m miserable during the event because it feels like it’s ending or it’s never as good as the model
Hype or its not snowing as hard as i want. I do love heavy snow falling though. Prob top 5 favorite thing of my life. There is also a huge sense of loss when it’s over. I hate seeing the sun out and snow plows and dripping crap. Snow says are always stressful for me. But nothing like a great model run 3 days out. But it’s torture knowing the next run won’t be as good

This is not a good hobby for me


.

Interesting I wonder what mattieg thinks

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:


80% of my love of snow has become
Digital unfortunately. I used to enjoy it more when I was a kid and no models or radars. Usually I’m miserable during the event because it feels like it’s ending or it’s never as good as the model
Hype or its not snowing as hard as i want. I do love heavy snow falling though. Prob top 5 favorite thing of my life. There is also a huge sense of loss when it’s over. I hate seeing the sun out and snow plows and dripping crap. Snow says are always stressful for me. But nothing like a great model run 3 days out. But it’s torture knowing the next run won’t be as good

This is not a good hobby for me


.

This is what cocaine feels like.

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26 minutes ago, Ji said:


80% of my love of snow has become
Digital unfortunately. I used to enjoy it more when I was a kid and no models or radars. Usually I’m miserable during the event because it feels like it’s ending or it’s never as good as the model
Hype or its not snowing as hard as i want. I do love heavy snow falling though. Prob top 5 favorite thing of my life. There is also a huge sense of loss when it’s over. I hate seeing the sun out and snow plows and dripping crap. Snow says are always stressful for me. But nothing like a great model run 3 days out. But it’s torture knowing the next run won’t be as good

This is not a good hobby for me


.

The Sixth Winter, by Gribbin and Orgill might be a good for you. It’s about 40 years old, dated, but still interesting from that tines perspective. As always ....

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Just now, CAPE said:

Look at the evolution at 500 mb. It's wonky af. Short answer is it all comes together too late/too far north for us.

Yep, too warm and too late. But, the general message could be as the long range turns to medium range the trend to colder wins out.

Also,  this may block could manifest itself with areas North of us cashing in first and then a general movement South mid month with a more Mid Atlantic type flavor finally going to a suppressed deep South hit.  EPS shows several opportunities near mid month, with active tracking near or after the  8 th.         

 

image.png.981fb2adbbab2225d0e2e886fd300743.png

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11 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Anyone want to tell me why the 18z GFS is not snow next Friday. Go ahead JI. Lol. For real. Seems like a great track. 540 thickness plenty south of DC. What am I missing? 

Because it’s the gfs I guess. Those thicknesses, 850’s solidly below freezing, surface temps near freezing, early January ... no way it rains. I’m looking where I live of course.

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Look at the evolution at 500 mb. It's wonky af. Short answer is it all comes together too late/too far north for us.
eta- I meant to reply to [mention=3211]Scraff[/mention] lol

No matter what track the gfs shows...it’s not snow lol


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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Because it’s the gfs I guess. Those thicknesses, 850’s solidly below freezing, surface temps near freezing, early January ... no way it rains. I’m looking where I live of course.

I’m with you. I think that might eventually turn into a legit threat. GFS just playing catch up perhaps to the changing teleconnections?

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Because it’s the gfs I guess. Those thicknesses, 850’s solidly below freezing, surface temps near freezing, early January ... no way it rains. I’m looking where I live of course.

Temps are marginal. We know that. It can still work. The problem is h5, h85, and the surface don't congeal in time for our latitude.

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