Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
 Share

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Icon has a totally different evolution then Euro. More GFS like. System for the 8th is all northern stream and runs to our north but then it has a wave right on its heels. 

Gfs has better separation. That northern branch piece isn’t interfering this run

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

This is a cool animation and notice the subtle negative getting closer to the East coast . Everything thing is retrograding.  

One could speculate if going forward in time beyond this range the negative may become focused even further SW.  

Would like to see the Pac to improve further. 

As psu posted the official reversal near Jan 5th, then if you go by HM's post a few days ago, the coldest air  would be near day 20 and beyond, that would be near Jan 25 th. 

There is not as consensus at the present time from the folks I follow as to the eventual location9s) that impacts the brunt of the SSWE event .  

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh186_trend.gif

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@CAPE cmc illustrated what I mean by needing a clean transfer and tightly would (synced up closed mid level circulation). It has a perfect upper level and surface track to get at least some snow into the cities but it doesn’t really phase up well or quickly in the mid levels. It’s too diffuse.  Add just a bit of amplitude though and that might work.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/30/2020 at 1:28 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Just looked at the record...dang, what the heck happened that March? 21" inches at BWI? Lol

yeah, the second half of that winter was very active.  the first half of that winter was basically snowless everywhere.  we had a severely negative ao/nao the entire winter though.  i'm guessing the first half of the winter must have been a lot of suppression.  eventually the dam broke and we cashed in.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The CMC is much colder overall throughout the run than the GFS. One thing I never considered when I saw the blocking being advertised a couple of weeks ago is how much the really cold air is trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. 

We’re going to have to make this work with domestic cold for a while.  We’ve done it before in blocking.  But it does add a level of difficulty. 
ETA: the gfs has been REALLY struggling lately with not just synoptic but major longwave features. It’s had some runs of quality in the past but lately it’s been lost. Until I see signs it’s got it’s act together and can handle this pattern I’m giving it even less weight then normal. GFS has a lot less stratosphere resolution then the euro. I don’t know about the CMC. But the gfs was way off on the strat warm, delaying it by a week. I wonder if given what’s going on now that component is really hurting it. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Sure did.  Nice bump with western ridging as well .

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-0064000.png

That ridging is a bit Far East...remember we have 2 problems here. Temps but also suppression.  We need the suppression given the marginal temps but that’s a pretty stout block:50/50 combo.  Too much of a good thing and the wave gets squashed to our southeast. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, psuhoffman said:

That ridging is a bit Far East...remember we have 2 problems here. Temps but also suppression.  We need the suppression given the marginal temps but that’s a pretty stout block:50/50 combo.  Too much of a good thing and the wave gets squashed to our southeast. 

It is, but I’ve also noticed there’s been more spacing between the wave and the western ridging. That PAC trough pulling back also pulls the ridging west. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But it does add a level of difficulty. 
ETA: the gfs has been REALLY struggling lately with not just synoptic but major longwave features. It’s had some runs of quality in the past but lately it’s been lost. Until I see signs it’s got it’s act together and can handle this pattern I’m giving it even less weight then normal. GFS has a lot less stratosphere resolution then the euro

Excellent points. 

The GFS versus the GEFS is a complete opposite. I would really focus on the Euro and its ensembles to lead the way.  Too complex it appears for the GFS Op.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The CMC is much colder overall throughout the run than the GFS. One thing I never considered when I saw the blocking being advertised a couple of weeks ago is how much the really cold air is trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. 

Not as much of an issue up North,  but from say Wilmington, DE. and points South and Southwest we really do need some colder air poised in our source regions. The cold nearby is marginal at best. As psu stated,  it adds another element to consider ( and may I add worry about ) when the 500 pattern screams snowstorm, but in reality it is only rain or snow to rain.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Already noticable changes on the Euro at 90 . NS energy diving much further south through Illinois and Indiana trying to phase . Definitely lower heights then 0z setting up beyond hr 100 to the ne . Hopefully not too much confluence 

The confluence looks a lot further SW this run. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It is, but I’ve also noticed there’s been more spacing between the wave and the western ridging. That PAC trough pulling back also pulls the ridging west. 

Yes...if that trend continues and we get a bit more space that wave can amplify. Normally more amplified isn’t good with a marginal airmass because it will often mean it pumps heights in front and further north solution.  But in this setup if we also see a continued improvement wrt the 50/50 in front we could get both more amplified but still a south solution. That’s the combo we need. With such a crap airmass were walking a tightrope even though it’s a really good setup at h5. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF locked and unpinned this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...