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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

i have seen 45 straight images posted in this thread...not one shows any digital snow

Lol...yeah Ill bite and be a weenie with you. I think its usually pretty bad when the models dont even show digital fantasy snow. i have a feeling we'll just keep chasing this dream pattern being talked about but of course I have nothing to back that up, other than several years straight of dismal snow winters IMB

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14 minutes ago, Ji said:

i have seen 45 straight images posted in this thread...not one shows any digital snow

I did see mention of biting and weenie so check that off the list....actually I believe the op output will start to reflect the block, if its real, and we'll see the digital effects.  but I am with you I saw the 6z at 288 and thought another cutter...I thought suppression would be more evident....we shall see

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14 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

So what's your bar for this potential pattern mine is 13" total for the rest of the winter at IAD?

id do 13 inches at the minumum. 20-30 would be what we should accept based on the hype. I mean all we do is talk about -AO/-NAO and this is setting up as an extreme during the heart of witner

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:

id do 13 inches at the minumum. 20-30 would be what we should accept based on the hype. I mean all we do is talk about -AO/-NAO and this is setting up as an extreme during the heart of witner

Mattie agrees with your assessment 

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34 minutes ago, Ji said:

id do 13 inches at the minumum. 20-30 would be what we should accept based on the hype. I mean all we do is talk about -AO/-NAO and this is setting up as an extreme during the heart of witner

But we are still within a rather hostile pac background state and a healthy Nina to boot so maybe we need to be realistic. For me I feel like getting a good result “for a Nina” should be the goal.  At least one nice region wide warning level storm and to beat median snowfall. That’s pretty rare for a Nina.  History says when we get blocking in a Nina we get some snow and avoid a total dud winter but only 1996 had big results by non Nina standards. But 1996 is out there as “possible” but setting the bar at a 1/100 year type outcome for a Nina is kinda setting yourself up to be disappointed Imo. But you do disappointed well...it’s your defining characteristic so I guess roll with it! 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Pretty sure this temp profile will work fine

A9324422-C6E9-4F95-9B8A-5E611ED9E62F.thumb.png.992ea3314db567728b7ac7cd2385dd9a.png

Have you checked out the super long-range Arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillation they seem to approach  neutral after being very deeply negative .

 

Doyou agree with this assessment , again I am only looking at one model what do you think?

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

Have you checked out the super long-range Arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillation they seem to approach  neutral after being very deeply negative .

 

Doyou agree with this assessment , again I am only looking at one model what do you think?

Why exactly are you choosing now to talk about the pattern relaxing or breaking down?

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji we gonna do our normal “thing” again where the first week of a blocking regime you whine constantly about “what good is a block when it’s still not snowing” and I say wait we typically do better on the backside of blocking regimes not the front.  Just asking. I’m ready. 

Lol.Wash.Rinse.Repeat.

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

Have you checked out the super long-range Arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillation they seem to approach  neutral after being very deeply negative .

 

Doyou agree with this assessment , again I am only looking at one model what do you think?

Their ability to predict the high latitudes that far out is very low. The reason I had confidence in the blocking coming now is it made sense wrt progression of features I could already see and had faith in not in fantasy land ranges.  It’s normal for blocking to wax and wane and sometimes a relax is when our best chances come. We don’t want a full break down but I’m not worrying about that yet. Guidance has spooked us many times breaking down blocking at long range only to have it simply be a relax or in some cases not even a relax. History strongly suggests when we see blocking of this magnitude develop it lingers quite a while. I would ride that for now. 

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@frd we will see what tonight’s EPS weekly says but the last run and the extended GEFS runs this week linger blocking straight through into February.  My biggest fear isn’t the high latitudes it’s the pacific. But not the fear others have. I’m actually more worried if the N PAC vortex pattern breaks down we resume a more canonical Nina look. This here from the GEFS extended would be problematic.
6A5CC065-C545-414F-8157-CE20428107F7.thumb.png.48b6b1785d654e4080bca30ac42c74bb.png

We would be fighting a SE ridge in that look. We want that N PAC trough to stick around to direct that ridging into the west coast more and keep it from popping out there in the central PAC. 
 

ETA:  it’s way far out and not worth really worrying about yet. Just saying if we fail that’s my most likely reason. 
 

EETA: that look isn’t the worst. It’s not a shutout look. But it’s a look that mutes our chances to cash in a but. Storms might try to amplify west...or we could see a typical Nina miller B pattern with that look that makes it harder to cash in here. Still there a better look then we had all last year just pointing out what my bigger fear then the blocking is. 

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd we will see what tonight’s EPS weekly says but the last run and the extended GEFS runs this week linger blocking straight through into February.  My biggest fear isn’t the high latitudes it’s the pacific. But not the fear others have. I’m actually more worried if the N PAC vortex pattern breaks down we resume a more canonical Nina look. This here from the GEFS extended would be problematic.
6A5CC065-C545-414F-8157-CE20428107F7.thumb.png.48b6b1785d654e4080bca30ac42c74bb.png

We would be fighting a SE ridge in that look. We want that N PAC trough to stick around to direct that ridging into the west coast more and keep it from popping out there in the central PAC. 
 

ETA:  it’s way far out and not worth really worrying about yet. Just saying if we fail that’s my most likely reason. 
 

EETA: that look isn’t the worst. It’s not a shutout look. But it’s a look that mutes our chances to cash in a but. Storms might try to amplify west...or we could see a typical Nina miller B pattern with that look that makes it harder to cash in here. Still there a better look then we had all last year just pointing out what my bigger fear then the blocking is. 

we just can't have nice things

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FWIW the para GFS last few runs looks much more like the euro and CMC in the long range with systems tracking south of us. Snow is still a long shot until after the 15 or so due to lack of cold but it’s interesting the para gfs has aligned with the euro in the long range a lot more often and has been killing the GFS on synoptic features in the medium to long range imo.  It even picked up on this Sunday system before the euro. It did run too cold but it was the closest to reality of all the globals and that’s not the first time this cold season.   This upgrade looks pretty significant. 

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One last point wrt this pattern and expectations. The fact that guidance doesn’t show some big blizzard RIGHT NOW isn’t a reason to worry. At this stage in the development of our recent severe blocks nothing was showing up either. Go back to a few days before the blocks formed in Feb 2018, Jan 2016, Dec 2010, Dec 2009...nothing was showing up on the radar then either.  It wasn’t for at least another week after the block developed before we were tracking a discreet threat.  But 2/4 ended up EPIC and the other 2 we did at least get several snows and at least 1 warning event from.   So while this “could” fail history says we probably get at least some snow from a pattern like this and there is a very good chance it’s a lot of snow...by our standards...but we have to be patient. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

FWIW the para GFS last few runs looks much more like the euro and CMC in the long range with systems tracking south of us. Snow is still a long shot until after the 15 or so due to lack of cold but it’s interesting the para gfs has aligned with the euro in the long range a lot more often and has been killing the GFS on synoptic features in the medium to long range imo.  It even picked up on this Sunday system before the euro. It did run too cold but it was the closest to reality of all the globals and that’s not the first time this cold season.   This upgrade looks pretty significant. 

Yeah mid month seems about right, but if we keep seeing the great looks on the ensembles by the 10th, that could move forward a bit. It would be more of a thread the needle deal with still marginal cold around.

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16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah mid month seems about right, but if we keep seeing the great looks on the ensembles by the 10th, that could move forward a bit. It would be more of a thread the needle deal with still marginal cold around.

I think we get teased in the Jan 7-15 time period. Maybe something does work out then. It wouldn’t shock me. The difference between “great” winters or periods of winters and “fine” are usually whether we luck our way into some marginal events. 
 

By many numeric indices (AO, etc) we’re going to underperform this December. For the folks north of the Fall Line, it’s going to be a “fine” December. But could have been better. We’ll see what January offers. 

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