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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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Euro has official wind reversal much sooner than the GFS. GLOSea supports the Euro. Faster official SSWE would mean effects time line moved up.

 
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GEFS & CFSv2 have 64 vertical levels, while ECMWF's ensemble has 91 and more of those are in the stratosphere (38 above 100 hPa vs. 24 in CFS). So, I anticipate ECMWF is on the right lines, as models with greater vertical resolution perform better (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JD030920) [2/2]
 
 
The ensemble-means of ECMWF extended, GEFS 35-day & CFSv2 all produce a major SSW during January - but they are really predicting different events, since while ECMWF reverses ~Jan 5, GEFS (Jan 12) & CFS (Jan 22) reverse much later! Which will be correct? [1/2]
 
 
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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Judah thinks there might be some winter in N America by MLK day. Maybe by Feb for the east coast? :weenie:

 

We are now punting all of January???

I know our winters are generally backloaded, but even second half teams don't want to go into the locker room down without any points on the board.

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

We are now punting all of January???

I know our winters are generally backloaded, but even second half teams don't want to go into the locker room down without any points on the board.

Don't worry, we scored on our first drive, and while we've stagnated since, I'm sure that the halftime pep talk will spring us right back into action for the second half. 

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11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

We are now punting all of January???

I know our winters are generally backloaded, but even second half teams don't want to go into the locker room down without any points on the board.

lol depends on which one of the SPV doctors you want to believe. They all say something a little different. 

Just looking at the forecasted 50 and 500 mb height/temp anomaly alignment I would say we are coupled and primed for long term blocking. Just give me that massive west-based block at the end of the Euro run and hope the Pacific calms down a bit. I will leave the rest of the esoteric SPV voodoo stuff to the geeks to figure out.

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@CAPE @osfan24 I don’t think we’re kicking all of Jan. The SSW has actually already commenced. The wind reversal looks to happen around the 4th (I but the euro here, its adamant about it and it’s been far superior with the strat over the years) and the progression we’re seeing on ensembles matches analogs. Weeks 1-2 after a SSW look ehh but the cold anomalies really kick in week 3 and go ape week 4-5. That lines up with the look on ensembles mid month and gets us into good shape by the last week of January. On a side note Cohen and some others have said this most closely resembles the 2018 SSW. That happened mid February and the flip for us happened after that storm the first couple days of March. From then on it was a favorable pattern into April. If this SSW happens the first week of January that same timeline puts the favorable windows from about Jan 20-March 1. I don’t mind that. Give me that same 2018 pattern but centered on prime climo v March/April and let’s roll!

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE @osfan24 I don’t think we’re kicking all of Jan. The SSW has actually already commenced. The wind reversal looks to happen around the 4th (I but the euro here, its adamant about it and it’s been far superior with the strat over the years) and the progression we’re seeing on ensembles matches analogs. Weeks 1-2 after a SSW look ehh but the cold anomalies really kick in week 3 and go ape week 4-5. That lines up with the look on ensembles mid month and gets us into good shape by the last week of January. On a side note Cohen and some others have said this most closely resembles the 2018 SSW. That happened mid February and the flip for us happened after that storm the first couple days of March. From then on it was a favorable pattern into April. If this SSW happens the first week of January that same timeline puts the favorable windows from about Jan 20-March 1. I don’t mind that. Give me that same 2018 pattern but centered on prime climo v March/April and let’s roll!

Yeah I think Cohen is going with the most conservative possible outcome. I just posted it for fun. Given what we are seeing on the LR means now with the blocking, it seems like we should be legitimately in the game around mid month or so. Could always luck into something before that too.

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Just now, cbmclean said:

I almost feel that the thread was too positive this afternoon.  Time for the 0Z runs to ruin it.

How so?  Most of what I saw was epic blocking and positive temp departure discussion. It might get better after we punt most of January.  We are on the threshold of hell.  How can it get any worse at 0z? 

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14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

How so?  Most of what I saw was epic blocking and positive temp departure discussion. It might get better after we punt most of January.  We are on the threshold of hell.  How can it get any worse at 0z? 

The blocking could disappear leaving only the positive anomalies.

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8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m of the mind it doesn’t need to improve if we get a west based block. Actually is the N PAC trough vacates and we get a ridge there that’s a worse look with a -NAO. 

How is a west based NAO block going to help if our source is warm “relatively”, and the PAC doesn’t improve which is necessary to shut off the flow of maritime air cross the continent. No cross polar flow and a crappy PAC... I’m not sure I agree the PAC doesn’t need to improve for our chances to improve. Maybe I missed your point

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7 hours ago, CAPE said:

That is the general look that I was touting last night with the Euro weeklies and this morning on the extended GEFS. I get your point about ridge placement sensitivity, but we are playing with fire almost all the time anyway. As long as that trough isn't a monster sitting over GoA, it think we will be in pretty good shape, and a ridge might get us a little more cold to work with.

 

7 hours ago, Ji said:

The surface don't care

7bbe46a35e4d40c2362166d72b22d7fc.jpg

Guys and girls, we can get the 500mb to look good all day long... but the surface temps are going to destroy our frozen. Watch: PSU will be saying two weeks from now “the pattern progress the way we wanted it but we couldn’t overcome the AN temp anomalies and our source region”. Something like: “perfect track, bad temps”. I get that that the AK low may retro and we pop a PNA and get our west based block. But we have NO COLD AIR! At least by the time it reaches us from its Luke-cold source region. We need that blocking to disappear and build cold, then recycle 3-4 weeks from low and and enjoy a 2-3 week period of winter. Not being a downer, hope I’m wrong but the AN surface temps are going to be a real issue here folks

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Just now, PivotPoint said:

 

Guys and girls, we can get the 500mb to look good all day long... but the surface temps are going to destroy our frozen. Watch: PSU will be saying two weeks from now “the pattern progress the way we wanted it but we couldn’t overcome the AN temp anomalies and our source region”. Something like: “perfect track, bad temps”. I get that that the AK low may retro and we pop a PNA and get our west based block. But we have NO COLD AIR! At least by the time it reaches us from its Luke-cold source region. We need that blocking to disappear and build cold, then recycle 3-4 weeks from low and and enjoy a 2-3 week period of winter. Not being a downer, hope I’m wrong but the AN surface temps are going to be a real issue here folks

If you want to play voodoo outcomes, lets say the SSWE officially triggers on the 5 th of Jan, ( per the Euro )  the cold would not become evident in the East until near January 25 th to Feb 1 st. 

The map above is only January 8th.

Also, keep in mind if the Urals High re-builds we will continue to get +EAMT events.  

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