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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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@WxUSAF tonight’s op gfs I think is more indicative of what the ensembles are “seeing” then the bootleg heights issue.  From 300-340 there is a full Rex block centered near the southern tip of Baffin with a 50/50 trapped doing loops under it. If anything that should be too much blocking. And yet it rains to Montreal during that period. There is no cold. The flow is blocked. The systems shear out. 
 

However...that is the first major longwave trough after the block retrogrades.  Imo, like you said, if the blocking persists I think each subsequent wave will likely have a bit more cold to work with. The euro weekly ensembles, however, never quite get to that critical tipping point where there is enough depth of cold to keep storms from either waiting and cutting or shearing out.  I agree that’s unlikely. But the gfs shows that it’s a “real” block...and still warm. 

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF tonight’s op gfs I think is more indicative of what the ensembles are “seeing” then the bootleg heights issue.  From 300-340 there is a full Rex block centered near the southern tip of Baffin with a 50/50 trapped doing loops under it. If anything that should be too much blocking. And yet it rains to Montreal during that period. There is no cold. The flow is blocked. The systems shear out. 
 

However...that is the first major longwave trough after the block retrogrades.  Imo, like you said, if the blocking persists I think each subsequent wave will likely have a bit more cold to work with. The euro weekly ensembles, however, never quite get to that critical tipping point where there is enough depth of cold to keep storms from either waiting and cutting or shearing out.  I agree that’s unlikely. But the gfs shows that it’s a “real” block...and still warm. 

You have mentioned that you don't feel as if super cold cross-polar flow is in the cards this year.  What is your feeling about the feasibility of simply getting the Pacific to be mediocre enough to not overpower perfect NAO blocking?

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Mild Conditions May Prevail Across Much of U.S. for First Three Months of 2021

The Weather Channel - December 16, 2020

Temperatures across much of the United States will be milder than average for the remainder of winter and into the start of spring, according to the latest outlook issued by The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

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4 hours ago, cbmclean said:

You have mentioned that you don't feel as if super cold cross-polar flow is in the cards this year.  What is your feeling about the feasibility of simply getting the Pacific to be mediocre enough to not overpower perfect NAO blocking?

The LR ensembles are suggesting some improvement in the EPAC, with the trough weakening some/retrograding, and a developing EPO ridge. That would provide a mechanism to redirect the flow, and inject some colder air. This seems to be the way things are evolving, but it will likely take some time. I can see some folks getting impatient because there will likely be a favorable west-based block for a time, without necessarily seeing more favorable outcomes. The evolution of the SWE probably increases the uncertainty on ultimate longwave pattern evolution, and how much colder we get going forward. It appears that the -AO/NAO will have persistence, so that's one big box checked on the list for winter weather in this region.

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6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Anything before January 20th in our region will be gravy....after that I remain hopeful

January of which year? 2022?

I've never seen guidance track so many ull and surface lows to our South and yield rain to SE Canada during prime climo with such a distinct west-based NAO in my 30 years of tracking. New Englanders must be jumping from bridges. At least we are used to regularly failing down this way.

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

January of which year? 2022?

I've never seen guidance track so many ull and surface lows to our South and yield rain to SE Canada during prime climo with such a distinct west-based NAO in my 30 years of tracking. New Englanders must be jumping from bridges. At least we are used to regularly failing down this way.

They're complaining pretty hard up there, lots of words like bootleg etc. Who knows....I guess we will see...it's almost Spring anyway

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Just now, BristowWx said:

We'll get something wintry with that GEFS look.  Won't likely be cold smoke but we don't see that much anyway.  couple of 1-3 or 2-4 inch slop fest events would do nicely.  

I would trade that look with a much more favorable Pac and less blocking for what the models are advertising over the next 10 days or so.

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8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Extended GEFS has the look we need to flush the Pac puke and inject legit cold into our source region. Hopefully we get there, but it will take some time.

eta- h5 is actually much improved out west by mid Jan, but still relatively mild in the lower levels at that time.

Looking at 500 certainly makes you think that NA gets the benefits of the SSWE. And speculation would suggest the cold air continues to gather and deepen past this time frame.  

Also,  some off the climo charts possibilities exist down the road, with the incredible low pressure storm system in the North Pac and a possible world breaking high pressure reading yesterday.    

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I would trade that look with a much more favorable Pac and less blocking for what the models are advertising over the next 10 days or so.

Nice to see some panels that do not show a ridge in the 50/50 region.  Interesting that weeklies show heights lowering in that area around the same timeframe....wk 2/3.  

GEFS starting the second week in Jan...repetitive 50/50 lows and a more traditional -NAO look.  Really hope we dont have to kick this can! 

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25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I would trade that look with a much more favorable Pac and less blocking for what the models are advertising over the next 10 days or so.

So we've moved on from the -NAO and are now cheering for a +PNA / better PAC instead? If it means getting the key ingredient (cold air) down to our region, then sign me up....I think. But you know once we get that look we are going cold and dry.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So we've moved on from the -NAO and are now cheering for a +PNA / better PAC instead? If it means getting the key ingredient (cold air) down to our region, then sign me up....I think. But you know once we get that look we are going cold and dry.

The -NAO with a horrid Pac isn't likely to make many people happy, so..

The other interesting thing with the advertised +heights over Baffin in the LR- and this is being debated in the NE forum- is that it may be the result of mild Pac air flow across Canada, warming and expanding the column, and producing those anomalous 500 mb heights, vs an actual ridge(anticyclone) which should have an adjacent trough over the east. I am not sure if I buy that, but there doesn't seem to be much curvature to the height lines once the +heights move into the sweet spot. I think that is probably more an artifact of a smoothed mean 15 days out. Either way, the PAC needs to become less hostile going forward or we will likely continue to struggle for chances of frozen.

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The -NAO with a horrid Pac isn't likely to make many people happy, so..

The other interesting thing with the advertised +heights over Baffin in the LR- and this is being debated in the NE forum- is that it may be the result of mild Pac air flow across Canada, warming and expanding the column, and producing those anomalous 500 mb heights, vs an actual ridge(anticyclone) which should have an adjacent trough over the east. I am not sure if I buy that, but there doesn't seem to be much curvature to the height lines once the +heights move into the sweet spot. I think that is probably more an artifact of a smoothed mean 15 days out. Either way, the PAC needs to become less hostile going forward or we will likely continue to struggle for chances of frozen.

bootleg

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