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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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7 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I gotta give it to this forum, there are a lot of polyannas prognosticating this way or that...if, X winds up here and Y does this and it's a Thursday and we close one eye then a HECS can happen.  Sorry, it ain't happening.  Face it we aren't getting any major snow this year. In fact, the sun is out full force today and I can already tell its angle is increasing.  Countdown til spring has commenced.... 

Ha, it's a little early for that. I think there is a middle ground between those saying winter is over in late December and those with false hope of something happening in the next 2-3 weeks when it appears the cold air is MIA.

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24 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I gotta give it to this forum, there are a lot of polyannas prognosticating this way or that...if, X winds up here and Y does this and it's a Thursday and we close one eye then a HECS can happen.  Sorry, it ain't happening.  Face it we aren't getting any major snow this year. In fact, the sun is out full force today and I can already tell its angle is increasing.  Countdown til spring has commenced.... 

You were already reaped....the first in fact. Stay in your place of rest ...  in peace...and silence ;)

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27 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I gotta give it to this forum, there are a lot of polyannas prognosticating this way or that...if, X winds up here and Y does this and it's a Thursday and we close one eye then a HECS can happen.  Sorry, it ain't happening.  Face it we aren't getting any major snow this year. In fact, the sun is out full force today and I can already tell its angle is increasing.  Countdown til spring has commenced.... 

I believe you are looking for the Mid-Atlantic Panic Room™️

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

From there is we can get the western trough to split and the vortex to pull back allowing that energy out west to slide under the block that can go somewhere good. If the whole trough keeps digging west....ehh

The GFS does do that later in the run. Pushes a nice ridge to the west coast. We can live with this:

gfs_z500a_namer_59.png

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24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

When was the last time we had a clipper pattern? I mean legit winter where we had a couple of clippers. I feel like years ago we used to get on avg 2 or 3 per year. They were 1-3"/2-4" events but they seemed so commonplace. I dont even remember when we had a single Alberta clipper tbh. 2013?

RIP clippers, we followed you for days and days then you hit the mountains and all dried and desiccated yourselves into oblivion and gave us clouds and flurries. 

 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GEPS was never really on board with the great look in late Dec early Jan but now...

3FA8DFBC-CE2E-451E-89E2-0AF4B766EA26.thumb.png.0063a3e96b6c2c913a107113746c89cc.png

 

Just have to see now if it keeps getting kicked.  The last 24-36 hours all 3 ensembles more or less show 1/8-1/12 the transition to the -EPO or +PNA look.  I think I want to see that come inside 240 before  I believe it.  No idea either how the SSW which does look legit at this time impacts this.  Obviously the major results won't transpire til mid or late Jan but we saw 2 winters ago how the warming process basically effed over what was going to be a good pattern shift for the East.

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4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

 Canadian ensemble looks very similar to the EPS (EPS a little less pronounced of the PNA ridge).  That’s an impressive west -NAO.  

 

7DBB0C49-8673-4DE4-B440-262A9FC9FC8D.png

Just a general question. Why arent the height lines in the AO region more curved like they are in the alaska trough. I know means are smoothed out I’m just worried we’d see more of the same current pattern

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You don’t seem enthused about the upcoming pattern.  
Its actually worse than last year because we have the high latitude blocking and we still not tracking anything of significance but its worse for me because on paper we should be killing it
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1 minute ago, Ji said:
21 minutes ago, BristowWx said:
You don’t seem enthused about the upcoming pattern.  

Its actually worse than last year because we have the high latitude blocking and we still not tracking anything of significance but its worse for me because on paper we should be killing it

Not sure about worse.  You already had a warning level event...last winter was epic shit pile with corn...it’s still better...your expectations were too high with the blocking...we were all too excited about it...so.lower the expectation or you’ll just be miserable.  

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12 minutes ago, Ji said:
32 minutes ago, BristowWx said:
You don’t seem enthused about the upcoming pattern.  

Its actually worse than last year because we have the high latitude blocking and we still not tracking anything of significance but its worse for me because on paper we should be killing it

Yo how can you possibly say that? We have a vulnerable polar vortex this year...that ALONE is better than last year!

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11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Not sure about worse.  You already had a warning level event...last winter was epic shit pile with corn...it’s still better...your expectations were too high with the blocking...we were all too excited about it...so.lower the expectation or you’ll just be miserable.  

Ji literally said 2009-2010 was a disappointment because it didn’t snow any more after the 3rd HECS. His expectations are far, far beyond the point they can be put in check. 

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