Kleimax Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Congrats ocean city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Can the gfs stop with the cutters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 6 hours ago, Ji said: Can the gfs stop with the cutters. Well it did puke out this random gem. No real support on the ens though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 The 0z GEFS has the eastern half of the US awash in mild temps from Jan 5 on. At the very end of the run, the trough near AK weakens/retrogrades. Also at the end of the run, there is a perfect Davis Strait block. I guess we keep watching to see if these ideas are legit. I think I have seen enough of the NE PAC trough/PAC jet extension combo though. It's a Pacific puke machine. The jet isn't likely going anywhere, so that trough needs to relax/retrograde. Again we see hints of that towards the end of recent ensemble runs, but it seems to stay stuck in that timeframe. Meanwhile, something could still pop up between now and early Jan, possibly the (potential)event following the NYE heavy rain event. Seems to be a bit of a window there. Lots of moving parts, but not a lot of cold around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 7 hours ago, Ji said: Can the gfs stop with the cutters. How do you like the sliders on the 6z? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: How do you like the sliders on the 6z? Nice to see storms tracking near/south of us for a change on an op run, even if they are rain lol. It must have finally "seen" the blocking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Pretty decent signal for a coastal low Jan 3-4 on the 6z GEFS. A few nice snow hits in there, some rain, some offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: Pretty decent signal for a coastal low Jan 3-4 on the 6z GEFS. A few nice snow hits in there, some rain, some offshore. That’s good news. I can’t get to any of the 6z members yet but many of the members from 0z were interesting in that time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 I also think the NY storm is interesting. Yes it is similar to the last system but the front orientation is different and this time the low is on more of a sw to ne path. Need that cold air to push just a bit further se and we would be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s good news. I can’t get to any of the 6z members yet but many of the members from 0z were interesting in that time frame The 0z GEFS had a few members suggesting a wave/changeover to snow on the back end of the New Years storm. Kind of bled into the following period. 6z looks like a cleaner signal to me for that window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 53 minutes ago, CAPE said: Nice to see storms tracking near/south of us for a change on an op run, even if they are rain lol. It must have finally "seen" the blocking! Its like going out to a fancy ice cream parlor with your date to get their gourmet homemade ice cream in their handmade waffle cones. You place your order but you only receive the waffle cone....no ice cream. And the cashier just acts like oh well, maybe next time. Pattern and storm track in prime climo minus the most important ingredient (cold air) stinks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: minus the most important ingredient (cold air) stinks. Only this year, and in this new warmer background state, does a deep - AO and -NAO produce no significant snowfall for us. Source region concerns continue, and even though the +EAMT events are helping with the -NAO they are also bringing in copious warmth to Alaska . At our latitude we need perfection and it is just not there. The fast flow and uncooperative Pac is over-powering the - AO and -NAO. How long this lasts is still uncertain , but hopefully by mid month the Pac changes up a bit. At the moment the really cold air is in Asia, as you have read about the very strong high pressure areas there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 A SSW the first 5 days of January would translate to local effects the last week of January IF it couples to the troposphere and IF our side of the planet sees the impact 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 29 minutes ago, frd said: Only this year, and in this new warmer background state, does a deep - AO and -NAO produce no significant snowfall for us. what the heck does that mean? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Well it did puke out this random gem. No real support on the ens though. Last three runs of the gfs and last night's euro all show a deep area of LP forming to our south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40westwx said: what the heck does that mean? It means the climate is indisputably warmer now than it was 20, 30, 40, or 50+ years ago. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It means the climate is indisputably warmer now than it was 20, 30, 40, or 50+ years ago. sigh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40westwx said: sigh... Feel free to spend some time with exhausted recycled arguments in the climate change sub forum 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Feel free to spend some time with exhausted recycled arguments in the climate change sub forum why bother how many posters can remember back to 60 or before edit maybe ustedtobe but that maybe a mistake also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Feel free to spend some time with exhausted recycled arguments in the climate change sub forum The funny thing is is that I wasnt even sure what that guy was talking about until you jumped in to talk about climate change.. it is such a tiring dead end/ frustrating topic.. I suspected that this is what he was referring too.. and I wanted to point out that it really has no bearing on our chances for snow/ snowstorms... 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 It very much does have bearing on our snow chances. And that’s the end of this discussion. 16 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: A SSW the first 5 days of January would translate to local effects the last week of January IF it couples to the troposphere and IF our side of the planet sees the impact This stuff is fun to discuss, especially when the perception is that the longwave pattern isn't evolving as hoped/as fast, but it's difficult to predict whether the effects will be net positive, negative, or anything impactful at all. The SPV could take the hit and then quickly rebound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Judah has his explanation for the modeled mild period in the east for early Jan. Ofc it is related to SPV disruption. What else could it be?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 34 minutes ago, CAPE said: This stuff is fun to discuss, especially when the perception is that the longwave pattern isn't evolving as hoped/as fast, but it's difficult to predict whether the effects will be net positive, negative, or anything impactful at all. The SPV could take the hit and then quickly rebound. So what you're saying is it might snow or it might not and it could get cold or it might not or it could be transient and do all of those things or it might just be warm wet cold dry or warm wall to wall or cold throughout? Let me know if I missed anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Noticed that the actual numbers for the AO and NAO have been above the forecasted numbers for the past week or so. They don’t appear to be at the levels desired just yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So what you're saying is it might snow or it might not and it could get cold or it might not or it could be transient and do all of those things or it might just be warm wet cold dry or warm wall to wall or cold throughout? Let me know if I missed anything We just can’t know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We just can’t know Maybe today? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So what you're saying is it might snow or it might not and it could get cold or it might not or it could be transient and do all of those things or it might just be warm wet cold dry or warm wall to wall or cold throughout? Let me know if I missed anything People pay more attention to the esoteric voodoo shit when the LR pattern doesn't look so good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Maybe today? No not today. Tomorrow or any other day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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