Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • WxUSAF pinned this topic
1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Interesting, do any of those terms mean anything to you?  I am only vaguely familiar with NWP.  I was under the impression that it involves lots of non-linear partial differential equations.

I am by no means an NWP expert. I didn’t get that deep into that before switching majors and most of what I do know is actually from my own research out of curiosity and wanting to understand some. But from my limited grasp if it is an EDM as he says then it focuses on using time series data to make causal inferences about the factors governing the observations in the time series and then use those correlations and inferred causalities to predict the future.  That’s different from the typical nonlinear hydrostatic and non hydrostatic models that initialize the atmosphere then use the differential equations that govern physics to predict the future. Back to the original issue EDMs require significantly less computing power and resources.  I am sure I didn’t do this justice and hopefully one of our resident NWP experts can chime in with a better explanation. @Disc @dtk  @high risk
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am by no means an NWP expert. I didn’t get that deep into that before switching majors and most of what I do know is actually from my own research out of curiosity and wanting to understand some. But from my limited grasp if it is an EDM as he says then it focuses on using time series data to make causal inferences about the factors governing the observations in the time series and then use those correlations and inferred causalities to predict the future.  That’s different from the typical nonlinear hydrostatic and non hydrostatic models that initialize the atmosphere then use the differential equations that govern physics to predict the future. Back to the original issue EDMs require significantly less computing power and resources.  I am sure I didn’t do this justice and hopefully one of our resident NWP experts can chime in with a better explanation. @Disc @dtk
 

Thank you for this info.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yoda starting this thread is money.  Here we go folks.  I looked at the 384 GEFS...how do we get AN temps with that H5 look?  Where is the cold? 

Look at the 850 anomalies. The air is cold enough if we get a decent storm track. But regarding the surface anomalies there are 2 factors. First they use 1981-2010 climo to calculate and frankly our base state is warmer. Slightly below normal for RIGHT NOW is probably slightly above normal for the climo period the model is using. That’s depressing but it is what it is. The bigger factor is that we’re still suffering from the worst fall pattern ever that didn’t allow any cold to build anywhere in North America. Then blocking set in but we never got cross polar flow to inject the cold over in Asia. So we essentially blocked in the pac puke. The domestic airmass is slowly cooling but we’re still paying the price for the fact we rolled into December with the whole continent torching.  There just isn’t any true cold around. Very small pockets form when an intense cyclone mixes it down then it quickly mixes with the surrounding airmass and moderates. We just need to hope that airmass is “cold enough” that with a good track we can get snow. It should be as we get into January. And if we can get an injection from cross polar flow at some point it would help going forward. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think everyone is anxious because it’s been so long seeing red in the right places.  
 

I think the reason we are not getting fantasy hits is the block being too Far East with the crap pac.  Every piece of ensemble guidance gets some sort of PNA help out west around day 10 with a retro west of the NAO ridge.  Like PSU said, we don’t need anomalous cold, especially in early January. I think there will be some sort of good storm in the first 10 days of Jan.  
 

 

CF8917C8-82C5-4632-98B8-5E7C7AFE2E17.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Ji said:

Euro has potential d10

As is that’s likely to cut due north. Actually because of too much blocking. The blocking retrograded so far southwest that the trough cannot progress east at all and is just doing a fujiwara with SWs rotating around. But it has potential in that if you adjust the block north slightly it’s better. I Don’t mind seeing a too extreme solution. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest CFS runs look interesting in a couple weeks. Nice improvement in the EPO region. That look would deliver some cold.

Hearing about concerns related to source regions from several mets. 

This went in the wrong direction, hopefully by mid Jan this looks much different. CFS progression makes sense, so it is not out there alone with bringing improvements in the EPO region.   

tenday.gif

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest CFS runs look interesting in a couple weeks. Nice improvement in the EPO region. That look would deliver some cold.

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_4.png

There we go. Thats the look we need to get the cold air that's locked up in Siberia/Mongolia over the pole into a better region to tap. Now get that look under 7 days! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There we go. Thats the look we need to get the cold air that's locked up in Siberia/Mongolia over the pole into a better region to tap. Now get that look under 7 days! 

Donald Sutherland did some posting about the  CFS last winter, and its accuracy for the month ahead. What he found was it really gets into its wheelhouse of accuracy around this time of the month for the month ahead. So, it would appear you can place a little more faith on the CFS at this time. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, it sure does.

 

58DD083C-D280-4F53-87CB-E736E9BE7B70.png

Looks like a cutter

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Latest CFS runs look interesting in a couple weeks. Nice improvement in the EPO region. That look would deliver some cold.

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_4.png

I read what PSU posted about cold air or lack thereof. Good read and makes sense. There’s just no cold air anywhere to be found, and with a warming climate I feel like we need more help to get snow than 20-30 years ago. That said I do think we loose that crap PAC but how long does that take is the question. We’ve done this kick the can deal for a couple winters now

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF locked and unpinned this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...