Christmas Eve Mega Front Disco/Obs

[WinterWxLuvr]

Ok let’s do it. This is at the least interesting.

[Kmlwx]

NAM nest has a nice line coming through tomorrow night. Looks good on sim reflectivity - long range HRRR runs even have some UH swaths showing up. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

It’s been a while since I’ve seen a front with this kind of temp differential roll through here. The two biggest of my life that I can remember were one in Jan of 77. I got to witness that one take temps from 50 to 8 in two hours. That’s the one that produced snow rollers. Only time in my life I’ve ever seen those. Anyone who doesn’t know what they are should look that up and then imagine them laying around literally everywhere. But the most memorable for me was the Jan 85 front. I think that front was more prolific on the west side of the mountains. I remember that about 11 pm on Saturday it rolled in with a significant line of snow squalls. The temp at onset was about 30. When I woke the next morning the temp was -9 and never reached zero that day. By Monday morning the temp was -26. Don’t think I’ll ever forget that one.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Whenever the 18z euro becomes available, someone please post that info.

[CAPE]

Wind! Outside of heat, we can do some impressive wind, esp in winter. 

Mount Holly-

Winds between 925 mb-850 mb will average 80-90 kt Thursday night, but there should be a decent enough inversion to keep the strongest winds aloft. However, with heavy rain, most of those winds will mix down, especially along the coastal areas. With the LLJ now tracking a bit farther west than previously shown, will spread some of the stronger winds back to the west as well. Currently expecting 60-70 mph winds along the barrier island of New Jersey and into coastal portions of mainland New Jersey, as well as along the Delaware beaches in Sussex county, Delaware. Going farther to the west, maximum wind gusts will range from 45-55 mph back through most of New Jersey, Delaware, and into Philadelphia and western suburbs. Will go ahead and upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for coastal New Jersey and the immediate Atlantic facing Delaware coast. Will hoist a Wind Advisory for the I-95 corridor of New Jersey, Philadelphia and western suburbs, and the rest of Delaware and the eastern shores of Maryland.

[CAPE]

18z Euro has the localized S MD/Lower Eastern shore snow band that most other guidance has Xmas evening.

[aldie 22]

[JakkelWx]

I feel better knowing the fact that up north into New England's snow pack is going to be swiftly eviscerated by rain, high winds and warm temps.

[psuhoffman]

Could be some nice convective snowshowers Xmas day as the upper low passes

[psuhoffman]

Just now, JakkelWx said:

I feel better knowing the fact that up north into New England's snow pack is going to be swiftly eviscerated by rain, high winds and warm temps.

Should I remind you of this post the next time we need their cold air source for CAD?

[WinterWxLuvr]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Should I remind you of this post the next time we need their cold air source for CAD?

He hadn’t considered that. I hope everywhere north of us from Wyoming to Rhode Island builds a four foot snow pack and keeps it all winter.

[WinterWxLuvr]

29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

18z Euro has the localized S MD/Lower Eastern shore snow band that most other guidance has Xmas evening.

You got the 12 comparison map?

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You got the 12 comparison map?

Its almost exactly the same everywhere east of the mountains(a bit less out there at 18z).

[Rhino16]

Maybe this wind up in the mountains will bring me some free holiday decorations... it’s windy up here y’all! I’m not going to sit on a chairlift in tropical storm conditions...

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Rhino16 said:

Maybe this wind up in the mountains will bring me some free holiday decorations... it’s windy up here y’all! I’m not going to sit on a chairlift in tropical storm conditions...

Don’t blame you. I was skiing in NC once with temps around 5 and got to see a quad lift break down in high winds. They had to somehow throw a rope up and lower than to the ground. It took at least an hour to get them off. I can’t imagine how cold they were.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Sometimes the cold has a bit better push than modeled. Get that front a little east with the same timing on that low and we could get a surprise

[WVclimo]

I remember that front in 1977 that WinterWxLuvr mentioned.  We were under a blizzard warning in Cumberland when they let us out of middle school early.  Perplexing as we were boarding the bus in sunny, balmy weather.

By the time I got home, the sky was black in the west, like a wall cloud in summer.  We ended up with a few inches in the valley but the Appalachians scored big.  And the wind was as advertised.

Also remember a frontal passage in November 1995 that dropped some accumulating snow behind the front when I was living in College Park.  Dramatic temperature drop that day also.

[aldie 22]

this thing sorta overperformed in Minneapolis I think, my sister lives just over the border in Ohio from WV due West of Huntington. They are calling for 3-6" there...if it overperforms there I'm saying we get on the board beyond snow TV....if not then disregard everything I just wrote

[WVclimo]

Big ring around the moon tonight.  40 degrees with about 80% snow coverage left of 1-2” depth.

[Stormfly]

20 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Maybe this wind up in the mountains will bring me some free holiday decorations... it’s windy up here y’all! I’m not going to sit on a chairlift in tropical storm conditions...

For some reason chairlift in tropical storm conditions (wind) reminds me of this!  Yikes!

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

this thing sorta overperformed in Minneapolis I think, my sister lives just over the border in Ohio from WV due West of Huntington. They are calling for 3-6" there...if it overperforms there I'm saying we get on the board beyond snow TV....if not then disregard everything I just wrote

Actually I think we want it to underperform there. We need that low to be sliding along as the cold comes through. If they get hit hard it means that low is too early for us.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Actually I think we want it to underperform there. We need that low to be sliding along as the cold comes through. If they get hit hard it means that low is too early for us.

That sounds like it should be right...let's run with it. 

[WVclimo]

Last 3 runs of the 12k NAM for QPF at MRB:

06Z - 3.62”

12Z - 2.67”

18Z - 2.98”

I’m all in.  

[JakkelWx]

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Should I remind you of this post the next time we need their cold air source for CAD?

Oh

[JakkelWx]

50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

He hadn’t considered that. I hope everywhere north of us from Wyoming to Rhode Island builds a four foot snow pack and keeps it all winter.

Consider that considered!

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Surprised there's not more action in here . A very dynamic 24 to 36 hours lining up.  Hrrr 18z also is a flooding rain event for many with 3-5" numerous locals verbatim.  Still snowpack here . Icon lays down 5 inch rain amounts in Pa where 15-30" fell past week . 

Congrats PA?

[chris21]

32 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

I remember that front in 1977 that WinterWxLuvr mentioned.  We were under a blizzard warning in Cumberland when they let us out of middle school early.  Perplexing as we were boarding the bus in sunny, balmy weather.

By the time I got home, the sky was black in the west, like a wall cloud in summer.  We ended up with a few inches in the valley but the Appalachians scored big.  And the wind was as advertised.

Also remember a frontal passage in November 1995 that dropped some accumulating snow behind the front when I was living in College Park.  Dramatic temperature drop that day also.

The November 1995 cold front is the one that stands out the most for me in Bethesda. I remember high winds, thunder and a dramatic temp drop with 1.5 inches of paste. It was early November (the 8th maybe), I actually lost power for the night.

[Snowchaser]

Baltimore/Washington office out with their snowfall forecast.

Baltimore 0

Washington 0

Leesburg .1-1”

Charlottesville .1-1”

Winchester 1-2”

[WinterWxLuvr]

I mentioned these earlier. Only time I ever saw these was Jan of 77.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_roller
 

[yoda]

I'd be more concerned about the flash freeze potential IMO