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2020-2021 LES Thread


josh_4184
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3 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Have about 13" OTG now, deepest of the season, starting to look like winter around here again for the LES Belts. 

snowdepth.png

This map clearly shows where the higher elevation areas are in northern lower. It’s been such a warm winter that the few degrees colder that the elevation provides makes a huge difference so far this winter.

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Really ripping now for the past couple hours, 1-2" per hour rates. If this keeps up will have 12-16"+ of LES by morning.  Little surprised APX hasn't upgraded the surrounding areas to warnings. This is where using LES advisories and warnings are more suitable then using winter storm warnings etc. Still don't like that they dumped those headlines a few years back.

 

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44 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Been that way up here until recently, about 45" under average for the year so far. 

I feel your pain, GRR is 34" below average.  Since I am closer to the lake, I am guessing I am a little below 40" below normal.  Anyway, congrats to finally seeing some snow up there!

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4 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

I feel your pain, GRR is 34" below average.  Since I am closer to the lake, I am guessing I am a little below 40" below normal.  Anyway, congrats to finally seeing some snow up there!

Yea I saw that recently Kalamazoo hasn't even had 12" of snow yet I was pretty shocked I am originally from Jackson and 131 always had at least 70-80" a year of snow. Tis week my area has definitely ate through some of the deficit, probably picked up about 14" so far the past two days and still hitting pretty good when I left for work this morning. May get another 2-4" throughout the day. 

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1 minute ago, josh_4184 said:

Yea I saw that recently Kalamazoo hasn't even had 12" of snow yet I was pretty shocked I am originally from Jackson and 131 always had at least 70-80" a year of snow. Tis week my area has definitely ate through some of the deficit, probably picked up about 14" so far the past two days and still hitting pretty good when I left for work this morning. May get another 2-4" throughout the day. 

I haven't seen 12" yet either.  Just broke double digits for the year earlier this week.  Here's hoping a warm lake and some friendly winds/850 temps during the month of February for both of us.

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Just now, WestMichigan said:

I haven't seen 12" yet either.  Just broke double digits for the year earlier this week.  Here's hoping a warm lake and some friendly winds/850 temps during the month of February for both of us.

Im over 50" for the year now, but a lot of that was from the two early synoptic storms we got. 

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On 1/20/2021 at 3:09 PM, slow poke said:

This map clearly shows where the higher elevation areas are in northern lower. It’s been such a warm winter that the few degrees colder that the elevation provides makes a huge difference so far this winter.

It's the same thing a lot of places this year.  Good totals in the mountains but not much elsewhere due to marginal boundary layer coldness.  The Adirondacks got dumped pretty good too.

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12 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

I haven't seen 12" yet either.  Just broke double digits for the year earlier this week.  Here's hoping a warm lake and some friendly winds/850 temps during the month of February for both of us.

It's been remarkably boring.  Maybe set a record for the amount of non-sticking 35 degree snow lol.  

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The lack of lake effect has really been amazing this year. I saw last night that Boyne Highlands in Harbor Springs has only had 16” so far this season, last year at this time they had received over 80”. Wondering if the rubber band will ever snap back in the other direction or at this point is it just broke. 

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LES has been mostly terrible this season (and a few years running) up until last night.  With the NW winds we have picked up at least a foot since last night and it's been intermittently snowing most of the day so not sure what the final total will be.  The HHRR model run from 00z Friday morning picked up on the big potential.   Finally looks like mid-winter.

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27 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Models are still all over the place with lake response to the arctic air incoming. Safe to say the lake belts are going to get some good snows coming up. Only concern might be that the air is too dry. Ice cover down my way is almost non-existent. 

Yeah Buffalo NWS is already talking about it. Going to be some insane 10 day totals with that arctic air and the synoptic aided moisture.

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Definitely liking prospects for LES for most GL Belts. Along with some additional synoptic initially with the system through Friday I can see areas easily cashing in 2-3+" in the next 10 days.  Depending how cold it gets, I venture to say the following weekend will be the best snow conditions of the year for my area barring any synoptic miracles after the PV leaves. 2nd weekend of Feb was always my go to weekend for snowmobiling when I used to ride and should be a great weekend this year.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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15 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Definitely liking prospects for LES for most GL Belts. Along with some additional synoptic initially with the system through Friday I can see areas easily cashing in 2-3+" in the next 10 days.  Depending how cold it gets, I venture to say the following weekend will be the best snow conditions of the year for my area barring any synoptic miracles after the PV leaves. 2nd weekend of Feb was always my go to weekend for snowmobiling when I used to ride and should be a great weekend this year.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Yeah 3-6' off Erie and Ontario

image.thumb.png.ed7593b16fc97532cba7dea363459c65.png

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43 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Definitely liking prospects for LES for most GL Belts. Along with some additional synoptic initially with the system through Friday I can see areas easily cashing in 2-3+" in the next 10 days.  Depending how cold it gets, I venture to say the following weekend will be the best snow conditions of the year for my area barring any synoptic miracles after the PV leaves. 2nd weekend of Feb was always my go to weekend for snowmobiling when I used to ride and should be a great weekend this year.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

If only the GFS would verify.  Nearly 3' IMBY.  However the Euro says no way.  Give me less than 12".  Either way, definitely looking to double my YTD snowfall and maybe more.

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1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

If only the GFS would verify.  Nearly 3' IMBY.  However the Euro says no way.  Give me less than 12".  Either way, definitely looking to double my YTD snowfall and maybe more.

Lake effect is always weird in terms of measurement.  Very high winds can cut down on the fluff factor, as can a low DGZ causing more plate-dominant snow.  Think you'd need 25:1 ratio at least to get three feet out of any model output.  Lake effect is always better than 10:1, but you need temps in the mid 20s and wind under 15 mph to get the crazy 20:1 ratio dendrite-dominant feather-fluff.  Even then it doesn't really feel like as much as the official measurement because when it gets deeper than 6" it settles fast under it's own weight even within 6-12 hours of falling.

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8 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Lake effect is always weird in terms of measurement.  Very high winds can cut down on the fluff factor, as can a low DGZ causing more plate-dominant snow.  Think you'd need 25:1 ratio at least to get three feet out of any model output.  Lake effect is always better than 10:1, but you need temps in the mid 20s and wind under 15 mph to get the crazy 20:1 ratio dendrite-dominant feather-fluff.  Even then it doesn't really feel like as much as the official measurement because when it gets deeper than 6" it settles fast under it's own weight even within 6-12 hours of falling.

You just described LES fairly well.  The fluff factor is something most people outside the lakes don't really comprehend.  The nearly 80" I average in a normal year here is not like Iowa getting 80" in a year.  Look at WeatherBo.  He gets 200"+ but depth never gets anywhere near that.

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28 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

You just described LES fairly well.  The fluff factor is something most people outside the lakes don't really comprehend.  The nearly 80" I average in a normal year here is not like Iowa getting 80" in a year.  Look at WeatherBo.  He gets 200"+ but depth never gets anywhere near that.

Agreed. Most LES accumulation never even  comes close to snowpack depth. I average 150-175" a year and usually only for about 1/3  of winter do I 30"+ depth, my area usually runs between 12-24 average depth. With that being said, depending on 850 flow(NW or WNW for my area)  and being able to lock in for a day or so I have seen 2-3' easily in my area over a couple day period now that doesn't mean I will have a 3' snow pack due to compression but it will still be fairly deep especially with the 10" of glacier I have now. When snowmobiling around my area it was  not uncommon to find areas near my house of chest deep snow untouched especially in wind/sun protected areas  With the lakes as wide open as they are for this time of year with the cold coming in it will pile up, but the extreme cold and small flake size will cut back accumulation. 

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17 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Agreed. Most LES accumulation never even  comes close to snowpack depth. I average 150-175" a year and usually only for about 1/3  of winter do I 30"+ depth, my area usually runs between 12-24 average depth. With that being said, depending on 850 flow(NW or WNW for my area)  and being able to lock in for a day or so I have seen 2-3' easily in my area over a couple day period now that doesn't mean I will have a 3' snow pack due to compression but it will still be fairly deep especially with the 10" of glacier I have now. When snowmobiling around my area it was  not uncommon to find areas near my house of chest deep snow untouched especially in wind/sun protected areas  With the lakes as wide open as they are for this time of year with the cold coming in it will pile up, but the extreme cold and small flake size will cut back accumulation. 

Lake effect snow off of Erie is the wettest of the great lakes. Our ratios are usually 1:15 to 1:20. I think it has to do with being the southern most lake and higher lake temps on average for events. A lot has to do with the flow of the wind. NW wind is usually higher ratio snow due to colder conditions. I get hit with W/SW wind which is usually not as cold resulting in lower ratios.

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