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Major LES event-December 24-27


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5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Lowered totals significantly across the board. Only 7” in BUF with the high end being 10”.

A1386C34-1907-4B7C-84C3-AE5FF380DBD9.png

Yeah looking at the models this morning I thing our chances of a big event in the metro have gone away. The synoptic looks like our bigger snowfall out of the 2 events. In fact this map would almost make this a west/nw wind judging by the heaviest accumulation near Erie PA...what a change

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3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah looking at the models this morning I thing our chances of a big event in the metro have gone away. The synoptic looks like our bigger snowfall out of the 2 events. In fact this map would almost make this a west/nw wind judging by the heaviest accumulation near Erie PA...what a change

Yep 06z models look much more W to WSW. In fact the 06z RGEM barely gets the band to the Southtowns it mostly stays over far southern Erie into Ski Country. This is why I don’t get my hopes up until we’re within 24-36 hours. So much can change once we’re in range of the mesos and they usually do. 
 

definitely not looking like anything major but at least we’ll have our white Christmas. 

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53 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Yep 06z models look much more W to WSW. In fact the 06z RGEM barely gets the band to the Southtowns it mostly stays over far southern Erie into Ski Country. This is why I don’t get my hopes up until we’re within 24-36 hours. So much can change once we’re in range of the mesos and they usually do. 
 

definitely not looking like anything major but at least we’ll have our white Christmas. 

The way the models are trending they may keep the WSW up for the synoptic part if the Euro is to be believed.

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20 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think Saturday morning is the best chance for good LES in BUF now as some warm advection kicks on the tail end of the trough. At least with the synoptic low trending east, you end up getting more snow for Christmas morning. 

Is it looking more like a high advisory event for the synoptic in your opinion?

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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I don't buy the rdps/gdps with all that freezing rain west of the low center. They seem overzealous. It's really tough to drag in the low-level cold air while at the same time maintain a warm nose on the west side of a low. You'll have a tendency to go isothermal snow as lift increases. 

Yeah that caught me by surprise as well. I can visualize the warm air of an approaching storm where warm air aloft goes over cold air at the surface and has a tough time scouring it out but I don’t recall too many instances after a front.

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Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah that caught me by surprise as well. I can visualize the warm air of an approaching storm where warm air aloft goes over cold air at the surface and has a tough time scouring it out but I don’t recall too many instances after a front.

Yeah it's fine on a temporary basis (a few hours or something), but the idea that you're going to be getting 0.30"-0.50"/3 hr of freezing rain on the west side of the surface low is tough. If the precip were lighter/lift weaker then it would be easier to maintain the warm air aloft. 

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Hey another thing I’m real curious about, I just checked the indicies and every one of them is as good as I can remember and the forecast for each is to go stronger in each direction we need (PNA positive 2) NA negative 2 and AO possibly negative 3 or 4, yet we’re seeing alot of cutters...what would be causing this?

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21 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Hey another thing I’m real curious about, I just checked the indicies and every one of them is as good as I can remember and the forecast for each is to go stronger in each direction we need (PNA positive 2) NA negative 2 and AO possibly negative 3 or 4, yet we’re seeing alot of cutters...what would be causing this?

 

3 minutes ago, vortmax said:

6z GFS definitely a tick east and gets it done for everyone west of SYR

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Post these in the general discussion, this one is just for lake effect 

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33 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I don't buy the rdps/gdps with all that freezing rain west of the low center. They seem overzealous. It's really tough to drag in the low-level cold air while at the same time maintain a warm nose on the west side of a low. You'll have a tendency to go isothermal snow as lift increases. 

What are your thoughts on snowfall totals? I still think 1-2' is expected by sunday afternoon across most of central/southern erie county. (including the synoptic)

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3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah looking at the models this morning I thing our chances of a big event in the metro have gone away. The synoptic looks like our bigger snowfall out of the 2 events. In fact this map would almost make this a west/nw wind judging by the heaviest accumulation near Erie PA...what a change

Yeah this is expected but still disappointing. The probability of long duration LES events for the metro/northtowns is constrained by the calendar (between the time that sufficiently cold air is far enough south to result in snow formation but before the lake shuts down), but also by the rarity of atmospheric conditions that create a stable SW flow. Timing has to be perfect. It’s catching lightning in a bottle. And what seems to happen is that an early signal of a major event for the metro gets our hopes up until we get closer to the event and better sampling data makes it clear that one of the components won’t be there.

I have to remember that we won’t know with certainty that we will have a major metro event until the second foot starts falling.

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Not sure if posted yet, updated FD from KBUF

...Heavy Lake Effect Snow Possible Christmas through December
26...

For Friday morning, there should be a brief transition from
ending synoptic snow moving into Central NY and developing lake
effect snow developing on a WSW flow over the lakes. The coldest
aloft will still be upstream and poised to move overhead later
Friday afternoon. So there may be a period Friday morning with a
meager lake response before a full-blown lake response takes
hold. As a result, there`s still quite a bit of uncertainty to
both the start time and placement of lake effect snow.

East of Lake Erie...some models move the band well into the
Northtowns while others place it toward Metro Buffalo Friday
afternoon. Regardless, the coldest airmass should pass overhead
Friday evening and mark the period for the heaviest and most intense
lake effect snow, where 2"/hr and thundersnow will be a possibility
into Friday night as the band settles a little to the south
overnight.

East of Lake Ontario...a similar transition period is expected, with
widespread snow tapering off Friday morning...followed with a lake
response Friday afternoon. The most intense period should be Friday
night and well into Saturday.  Similar to Lake Erie however, there`s
still uncertainty placement at this point through Saturday.  The
best chance will probably be over/north of the Tug Hill Plateau.
Then another shortwave trough will move across the St Lawrence
valley and should push the band south over and eventually south of
the Tug Hill Plateau.

With concerns noted above, the watch will stand for now until
there`s more confidence in timing and placement along with
corresponding snow amounts.
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