BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: That’s actually a Delaware park to southern Niagara special. I grew up in NT and recognize this band...this will fire hose and we all end up with a foot plus Big time run on GFS for you guys. 1-2' for northtowns. This is a northtown to southtown special. SW/WSW winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: ICON is terrible but 2" of QPF in Erie county alot of that is rain from the front lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Great run on GFS for big metro hit! I can’t wait to see what camp the NWS is going to take. Every model is giving a slightly different output with widely different outcomes... Just remember 24 hours ago the NWS was “tossing the GFS”. Let’s see what says the Euro and Canadian?! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 The westward trends with the synoptic low are better for BUF, it increases the duration of southwesterlies on the backside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 It doesnt look like a big lightning producer to me, maybe an odd strike or two. The inversion is close to 700mb which is fine for heavy snow in a cold airmass, but its not great for lightning as the -10c isotherm is so close to the ground. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Great run on GFS for big metro hit! I can’t wait to see what camp the NWS is going to take. Every model is giving a slightly different output with widely different outcomes... Just remember 24 hours ago the NWS was “tossing the GFS”. Let’s see what says the Euro and Canadian?! Damn BuffaloWeather was right, that run is like 48 hours locked and loaded at Erie County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Damn BuffaloWeather was right, that run is like 48 hours locked and loaded at Erie County. Boom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 9 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Damn BuffaloWeather was right, that run is like 48 hours locked and loaded at Erie County. It’s more of a 24-30 hour window of roaming the metro. One thing all the models have agreed on this morning is to push back the starting time frame a good 12+ hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: It’s more of a 24-30 hour window of roaming the metro. One thing all the models have agreed on this morning is to push back the starting time frame a good 12+ hours. I think the band starts Friday morning regardless of model qpf outputs. It's a bit sheared then for sure, but good enough for a moderate band of lake effect over the southern side of BUF. It gets better later in the day due to increased instability and less shear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 20 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Great run on GFS for big metro hit! I can’t wait to see what camp the NWS is going to take. Every model is giving a slightly different output with widely different outcomes... Just remember 24 hours ago the NWS was “tossing the GFS”. Let’s see what says the Euro and Canadian?! Please, sweet 30lb, 6oz baby Jesus. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Canadian and Ukmet are both east of the GFS up in canada so the flow is more West-WSW off Ontario, albeit the Canadian looked weak sauce lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Canadian and Ukmet are both east of the GFS up in canada so the flow is more West-WSW off Ontario, albeit the Canadian looked weak sauce lol Toss both...this has the Cleveland suburbs getting 24”... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z Euro has a nice band right through the metro for 12 hr +... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: 12z Euro has a nice band right through the metro for 12 hr +... Where are you seeing that? I’m only seeing a brief shift to WSW winds late Friday Early Saturday that brings the band close to the metro but never into it... Looks like a south of the south towns band to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I can't speak for ERIE but that's a nice aligned westerly flow off Ontario on the European.. Obviously at 10-1 with a model that has trouble picking up lake moisture..NWS cleveland mentioned 15-20/ SLR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Where are you seeing that? I’m only seeing a brief shift to WSW winds late Friday Early Saturday that brings the band close to the metro but never into it... Looks like a south of the south towns band to me... May be just be the site I’m using but looks pretty darn close to the metro to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I'm liking sat for this area as all Globals drop the band south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Maybe just be the site I’m using but looks pretty darn close to the metro to me. That’s metro center cut...models always struggle with this...they lean to the typical snow belts even when a scenario pops that shows different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I'm liking sat for this area as all Globals drop the band south.. There ya go Wolf you cash in and so does BUF haha! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I'm liking sat for this area as all Globals drop the band south.. ...and halt it just to my north. Perhaps I'll be able to arrive home to a dusting? Too much to ask? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: ...and halt it just to my north. Perhaps I'll be able to arrive home to a dusting? Too much to ask? Don't worry, it goes back north next frame just in case.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Paging the KBUF office!!! How’s that update to the forecast discussion going after that cluster of runs... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Nws has 7" here by 7 am Saturday, unfortunately that will not be happening lol Synoptic has gone to shit and I'll miss most of the LES Friday to the north..I expect some adjustments next package update.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Where do you live so I know not to go there? Ha! NNW of Syracuse...a couple miles south of the Oswego county line. But, really the Syracuse area has been in a crap hole of light snowfalls and consistent thaws the past couple of winters. Everything dancing around us. Maddening. You wouldn't know we lived in the "snowiest major city" in the country... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 23 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Paging the KBUF office!!! How’s that update to the forecast discussion going after that cluster of runs... The update at 152 was the same, may not change until the 3pm text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 P&C forecast changed a little here with"occasional" included in the wording for Friday which makes sense.. Saturday still looks good for 4 days out.. Christmas Day Snow before 7am, then occasional snow showers, mainly after 7am. High near 30. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday Night Occasional snow showers. Low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow showers. High near 25. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 44 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Paging the KBUF office!!! How’s that update to the forecast discussion going after that cluster of runs... Exactly I'm quite confused too, leaning towards non blockbuster event. Should be a good one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 For Friday morning, there should be a brief transition from ending synoptic snow moving into Central NY and developing lake effect snow developing on a WSW flow over the lakes. The coldest aloft will still be upstream and poised to move overhead later Friday afternoon. So there may be a period Friday morning with a meager lake response before a full-blown lake response takes hold. As a result, there`s still quite a bit of uncertainty to both the start time and placement of lake effect snow. East of Lake Erie...some models move the band well into the Northtowns while others place it toward Metro Buffalo Friday afternoon. Regardless, the coldest airmass should pass overhead Friday evening and mark the period for the heaviest and most intense lake effect snow, where 2"/hr and thundersnow will be a possibility into Friday night as the band settles a little to the south overnight. East of Lake Ontario...a similar transition period is expected, with widespread snow tapering off Friday morning...followed with a lake response Friday afternoon. The most intense period should be Friday night and well into Saturday. Similar to Lake Erie however, there`s still uncertainty placement at this point through Saturday. The best chance will probably be over/north of the Tug Hill Plateau. Then another shortwave trough will move across the St Lawrence valley and should push the band south over and eventually south of the Tug Hill Plateau. With concerns noted above, the watch will stand for now until there`s more confidence in timing and placement along with corresponding snow amounts. In summary, the synoptic snow should yield 1-4" sloppy heavy snow for nearly all of WNY, followed by a break or decrease, then localized lake effect develops. There`s high confidence for lake effect downwind of both lakes, but details still need to be ironed out. Lighter lake snows will linger into Sunday and eventually fall apart as warm advection ahead of the next system to affect the area turns flow southerly and warms temperatures into the start of next week. Long range guidance in fairly good agreement on a shortwave trough rounding the base of the Northern Stream on Monday. The associated cold front crosses the Great Lakes region during the day Monday, leading to snow shower chances across the area. Daytime heating on Monday may raise temperatures enough for some rain to mix in with the snow, but should be all snow again by Monday evening. The large scale system pushes out of the area by Tuesday morning, but much cooler air ushering in behind the front may lead to some lake effect snow for Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: For Friday morning, there should be a brief transition from ending synoptic snow moving into Central NY and developing lake effect snow developing on a WSW flow over the lakes. The coldest aloft will still be upstream and poised to move overhead later Friday afternoon. So there may be a period Friday morning with a meager lake response before a full-blown lake response takes hold. As a result, there`s still quite a bit of uncertainty to both the start time and placement of lake effect snow. East of Lake Erie...some models move the band well into the Northtowns while others place it toward Metro Buffalo Friday afternoon. Regardless, the coldest airmass should pass overhead Friday evening and mark the period for the heaviest and most intense lake effect snow, where 2"/hr and thundersnow will be a possibility into Friday night as the band settles a little to the south overnight. East of Lake Ontario...a similar transition period is expected, with widespread snow tapering off Friday morning...followed with a lake response Friday afternoon. The most intense period should be Friday night and well into Saturday. Similar to Lake Erie however, there`s still uncertainty placement at this point through Saturday. The best chance will probably be over/north of the Tug Hill Plateau. Then another shortwave trough will move across the St Lawrence valley and should push the band south over and eventually south of the Tug Hill Plateau. With concerns noted above, the watch will stand for now until there`s more confidence in timing and placement along with corresponding snow amounts. In summary, the synoptic snow should yield 1-4" sloppy heavy snow for nearly all of WNY, followed by a break or decrease, then localized lake effect develops. There`s high confidence for lake effect downwind of both lakes, but details still need to be ironed out. Lighter lake snows will linger into Sunday and eventually fall apart as warm advection ahead of the next system to affect the area turns flow southerly and warms temperatures into the start of next week. Long range guidance in fairly good agreement on a shortwave trough rounding the base of the Northern Stream on Monday. The associated cold front crosses the Great Lakes region during the day Monday, leading to snow shower chances across the area. Daytime heating on Monday may raise temperatures enough for some rain to mix in with the snow, but should be all snow again by Monday evening. The large scale system pushes out of the area by Tuesday morning, but much cooler air ushering in behind the front may lead to some lake effect snow for Tuesday. Can I put multiple likes or “weenie” likes on this? This basically calls this a metro event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Can I put multiple likes or “weenie” likes on this? This basically calls this a metro event I’m afraid I’ll be too far south in Clarence for once lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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