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From NE Forum:

Weeklies gone wild from mid-January onward....PAC gets better and NAO blocking looks more classic. Let’s hope it is right. 

EPO never gets great on weeklies but it doesn’t have to if the NAO/AO ends up like it depicts. It goes into a bit more of a neutral state and the PNA ridging pops a little more. 

It’s not a cold pattern up here but it is a good one for snow events. Definitely a cold pattern down south though.  

Weeklies could be wrong though. They don’t have a lot of skill beyond week 3. 

Still not a good look for lake effect.

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7 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Just measured exactly 2” in the past hour (5:54 to 6:52 pm) here in Barnes Corners...along with gusty winds blowing it horizontally at times.   

Nice! You live up there? I remember coveting that location as a kid. At one time people thought it was the snow capital of the Great Lakes. Before Carol found the honey pot. 

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24 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Nice! You live up there? I remember coveting that location as a kid. At one time people thought it was the snow capital of the Great Lakes. Before Carol found the honey pot. 

That's the thing, spotters are sparse, so we wouldn't know if other parts of the tug averaged more..She sits at about 1350 ASL, some parts get up to about 2k..I guess we'll never know..lol

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26 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Nice! You live up there? I remember coveting that location as a kid. At one time people thought it was the snow capital of the Great Lakes. Before Carol found the honey pot. 

Hi Dave and Buffalo!  I’m up here with my wife and 20 month old baby girl building her first snowman (Olaf) and sledding on a hill.  Was on our way back to my wife’s families house in Lancaster, Pa. when I saw the forecast and the radar.  Decided to come into the Tug Hill to do the aforementioned.  

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7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It could be worse

2020 isn't quite over yet, but barring something unexpected - For DC (downtown station plus DCA airport) has its warmest minimum for the calendar year on record, 22, beating 21 in 1949. Also the least snowy calendar year on record, 0.2", beating 0.5" in 1998.

— NWS Baltimore-Washington (@NWS_BaltWash) December 28, 2020

Wait, it never got below 22 degrees in DC, in all of 2020? And they got all of a dusting of snow?

That is insane.

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

Looks like this first band has already hit its southern point. Just a few flurries here. Yaaaaaaaawn. Hope the band forms on the WNW flow overnight...otherwise, it's another loss here.

Yeah WRF/3k/hrrr don't look too promising..The forecast would bust for Oswego county if it verified..Winds look to turn more NW overnight so obviously you have a chance, GL..

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

From NE Forum:

Weeklies gone wild from mid-January onward....PAC gets better and NAO blocking looks more classic. Let’s hope it is right. 

EPO never gets great on weeklies but it doesn’t have to if the NAO/AO ends up like it depicts. It goes into a bit more of a neutral state and the PNA ridging pops a little more. 

It’s not a cold pattern up here but it is a good one for snow events. Definitely a cold pattern down south though.  

Weeklies could be wrong though. They don’t have a lot of skill beyond week 3. 

Still not a good look for lake effect.

Nah all ensembles showing it as you alluded to earlier in fact the 18z GFS says big cold dump still in the cards 2 weeks from now 

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2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Nah all ensembles showing it as you alluded to earlier in fact the 18z GFS says big cold dump still in the cards 2 weeks from now 

Literally the coldest frame on the 18z GFS. I guess you’re referring to the 850’s but I see mild weather not a cold dump. Show me what I’m missing? image.thumb.png.e5c9793278936100dbbb05a4fdb2359e.png

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1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Literally the coldest frame on the 18z GFS. I guess you’re referring to the 850’s but I see mild weather not a cold dump. Show me what I’m missing? image.thumb.png.e5c9793278936100dbbb05a4fdb2359e.png

Well conceding the fact it’s only - 4 to -6 c the avg high is 31 so that would equate to below freezing temps, which like BW stated we snow instead of rain...small victories 

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It has to be snowing at least 2-3"/hr right now and has been for a couple hrs now! Just measured at 3AM and I'm at 8" with the band still cranking so I believe this will be an overachiever and we will easily surpass the 1' mark when its all said and done.  I was NOT expecting this to occur but am super happy that it is so there wont be anymore complaining out of me for at least until our next rain storm, lol!

 

image.thumb.png.0c1bbb8b730ddc12b7eb0a0388e1dc18.png

The band looks to be steady state out of the WNW with no signs of moving as of yet but am expecting it to start sagging South in the next couple hours!

CONGRATS TO ME, LOL!!!!

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We've been upgraded to a warning and its definitely warranted!

.LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations
  of 6 to 9 inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego county. The heaviest snow will be across the
  southern portion of the county.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with poor visibility and
  deep snow cover on roads. The hazardous conditions will impact
  the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

 

I still think totals will surpass the 9" mark as I'm already at 8" like I said!

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