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Christmas Eve/Day Annual Scrooger Event


Baroclinic Zone
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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There are some similarities with this event and the screamer in 96 that melted 3-4’ of snow in 24 hours. Does anyone recall how strong winds were in that event, and did the strongest winds occur over snowpack or after it had melted?

Everything I can find is NY related and gusts in the 30s. There were bigger issues.

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/Jan1996Flooding

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20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There are some similarities with this event and the screamer in 96 that melted 3-4’ of snow in 24 hours. Does anyone recall how strong winds were in that event, and did the strongest winds occur over snowpack or after it had melted?

We lost a big spruce in our front yard in that one..blew right down- roots and all.  And there was snow still on the ground when it toppled.  

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

I usually see one maybe two per season if we get real lucky and many years we see none, Last year was one of them where we had 0.

None last winter, none the winter before - 1st back-to-back with no 12"+.  (Of course, 18-19 is my only 100"+ season w/o a 12" storm, so no real cause to complain - yet.)

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41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah I recall quite a bit of wind damage in SNE. I just can’t find anything on how strong winds were 

There were 3 cutters. Blue hills gusted between 80-92 or so. I think strongest winds was the first one. I had a birch uproot with 2’ of snow still. One of the top cutters. I was at stop and shop outside doing carriages at the time. There were power flashes, signs ripping apart, and an old lady blew over right in front of me. I won’t forget that. :lol: 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

There were 3 cutters. Blue hills gusted between 80-92 or so. I think strongest winds was the first one. I had a birch uproot with 2’ of snow still. One of the top cutters. I was at stop and shop outside doing carriages at the time. There were power flashes, signs ripping apart, and an old lady blew over right in front of me. I won’t forget that. :lol: 

That is fantastic. Special memories there 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There were 3 cutters. Blue hills gusted between 80-92 or so. I think strongest winds was the first one. I had a birch uproot with 2’ of snow still. One of the top cutters. I was at stop and shop outside doing carriages at the time. There were power flashes, signs ripping apart, and an old lady blew over right in front of me. I won’t forget that. :lol: 

Did you help her up?

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Oceanic SST's are seasonally declining now in the bite waters/ E of Jersey ...I'm not sure that llv jet gets down into the bottom of the sounding if the water temperature is below the WB of the air mass over top.  hmm.

But hell... there's wind software products and experience so assuredly this has all been considered... 

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know if I’d feel comfortable mentioning 75mph. 

I dunno .. .thing is, I've seen more busts when it comes to 'wind' as an isolated threat metric than I can even keep track of in memory if I cared to even do so .. ugh.

Now... admittedly, most HWW that don't materialize are in CAA ... What's funny about that - I've seen some where Warning gusts were met but no warning was issue more times - I think - than a warning wind forecasts have verified.  Lol

But anyway, of both .. these S gales do seem to stick out in memory as having some impressive canopy leaner wind gusts ...and there is also truth/physics to the notion of SSE winds causing more timbre damage because it's like the environment is not used to that wind direction.. or processed wind flow direction/maintenance

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

0-3KM? I didn’t loo to be honest, but are you sure?

yeah I was just checking the 18z HRRR and it had 60-80 J of 3km CAPE...given the shear parameters that certainly may be enough. 

Maybe I'm wrong and there will actually be some convection involved here. I think that's really the only way we materialize higher end winds out of this. Even still looking at bufkit (only looked at CT) it still seems to be struggling to really bring down significant gusts. But I mean if there is convection involved...it's going to be quite ugly. I just didn't see much in the way for convection outside of the insane forcing.

 

EDIT: actually 12z was a bit better at BDL in terms of mixing

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