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Christmas Eve/Day Annual Scrooger Event


Baroclinic Zone
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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Rain can stabilize things, but not always. Even if we’re “mixed” it’s going to be moist adiabatic with the high dews advecting in over the pack. It gets more difficult in the foothills and sheltered valleys where the latently cooled air can put up an easier fight, but there’s going to be a corridor just inland where the pack will go relatively quickly and the winds will be roaring off the deck with 59/59 at 2m. Idk...I can kinda see this going either way, but I feel like you’re getting a little Popeish here with the angry anti-wind posts and trying to pound your chest while going against the grain. I mean we get it, we know where you stand. But the NWS is hitting the concern pretty hard and some other mets too. Hey, I hope you’re right...we don’t need trees falling on travelers Christmas morning.

Exactly what I tried to convey

1717  can't attack you because of your tag lol.  Dude needs to sulk in the background this is all over his head.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Rain can stabilize things, but not always. Even if we’re “mixed” it’s going to be moist adiabatic with the high dews advecting in over the pack. It gets more difficult in the foothills and sheltered valleys where the latently cooled air can put up an easier fight, but there’s going to be a corridor just inland where the pack will go relatively quickly and the winds will be roaring off the deck with 59/59 at 2m. Idk...I can kinda see this going either way, but I feel like you’re getting a little Popeish here with the angry anti-wind posts and trying to pound your chest while going against the grain. I mean we get it, we know where you stand. But the NWS is hitting the concern pretty hard and some other mets too. Hey, I hope you’re right...we don’t need trees falling on travelers Christmas morning.

I'm just trying to bring perspective and lay out everything not go all balls out b/c some model maps are showing 60+ knot gusts. I' certainly not pounding my chest at all. I can see pockets of stronger winds for sure...but how many of these set ups in the past have been overplayed? There are virtually two scenarios here;

1) It pans out

2) It doesn't pan out

So what's the difference between the set ups that pan out and don't pan out? 

Also, just going through various bufkit profiles...it's very hard to find any locations yielding strong enough mixing to bring down 50+ knot gusts. 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

1717 is just a trouble maker. You and I know Wiz, we can discuss anything without personal attacks. I agree with most of your assumptions however 2 concerns, fine line convection and dry slots in between rain bands. I so don't want this storm

Completely agreed...if we see fine line convection or any dry slots...well all bets are off. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

I'm just trying to bring perspective and lay out everything not go all balls out b/c some model maps are showing 60+ knot gusts. I' certainly not pounding my chest at all. I can see pockets of stronger winds for sure...but how many of these set ups in the past have been overplayed? There are virtually two scenarios here;

1) It pans out

2) It doesn't pan out

So what's the difference between the set ups that pan out and don't pan out? 

Also, just going through various bufkit profiles...it's very hard to find any locations yielding strong enough mixing to bring down 50+ knot gusts. 

GfS bufkit?

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Exactly what I tried to convey

1717  can't attack you because of your tag lol.  Dude needs to sulk in the background this is all over his head.

Why would I "attack" Wiz??....he comes across as a good guy. He shares his thoughts on the weather.  At times he's correct and at other times he's not correct but that goes for all mets.......

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

GfS bufkit?

For BDL, it actually looks to have the highest gust potential later Friday morning (if you keep the momentum xfer option at a 10). However, if you increase the depth of mixing and change it to a 20 it does yield gusts potential 50+. 

Too me that seems a little concerning for higher gusts b/c the GFS is usually more mix happy. 

FWIW, I'm not saying we aren't seeing big gusts. I'm thinking 40-50 mph gusts state wide but don't think we'll see widespread 50-60+ gusts

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38 minutes ago, wdrag said:

 

 

 read the doubts about wind. Here's my suggestion; Review all the High Wind topics and note the performance (we verify all these) of the topic that takes into consideration a slight high bias in guidance in advance, of the EC and HRRR wind gust algorithm.  It's not by more than 5 knots (if we did a study)  I'll add two graphics from the 06z/23 HRRRX for 06z/25 only...  use the legend and lets see what happens.  Take at most 5 knots off the HRRRX GUST wind guidance or just use the knots as MPH.  Should be very close.

It's an extensive problem that is coming.  I also added the 80m wind...  if you don't like the option from the gust algorithm, then use the lower speed 80m wind guidance as your gust.  Maybe that will verify better.  We never know for sure in advance, but it's better to prepare.   If the models are right,  and in advance we dismiss as way too high, sooner or later we automate these model guidances and outperform humans. The models are slowly improving. Gotta run. Back this afternoon, Walt 

Screen Shot 2020-12-23 at 7.41.22 AM.png

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

For BDL, it actually looks to have the highest gust potential later Friday morning (if you keep the momentum xfer option at a 10). However, if you increase the depth of mixing and change it to a 20 it does yield gusts potential 50+. 

Too me that seems a little concerning for higher gusts b/c the GFS is usually more mix happy. 

FWIW, I'm not saying we aren't seeing big gusts. I'm thinking 40-50 mph gusts state wide but don't think we'll see widespread 50-60+ gusts

Hope so. The meso models are very concerning, global models just don't have the fine tuning mesos do. Point in time bufkit has issues with spatial fast moving lines. Let's hope you are correct Paul. Merry Christmas my good friend

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6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Why would I "attack" Wiz??....he comes across as a good guy. He shares his thoughts on the weather.  At times he's correct and at other times he's not correct but that goes for all mets.......

Lol it was Dendrite. Please go away.  Some people without tags have extensive experience and knowledge that adds to our discussions, all you add is stirring up trouble.

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hope so. The meso models are very concerning, global models just don't have the fine tuning mesos do. Point in time bufkit has issues with spatial fast moving lines. Let's hope you are correct Paul. Merry Christmas my good friend

Merry Christmas to you too, Steve. 

This is certainly close. Did notice the 3km NAM was showing 50+ knot gusts over a widespread area. Not totally ruling this out. 

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31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hope so. The meso models are very concerning, global models just don't have the fine tuning mesos do. Point in time bufkit has issues with spatial fast moving lines. Let's hope you are correct Paul. Merry Christmas my good friend

Are the smaller rivers and streams free flowing, ie no ice jam concerns. 2-4” of rain with melting pack presents hydro concerns alone

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14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hopefully the power crews in CT, RI and SE Mass are on standby. Sucks that it is on Christmas...

Should be interesting to watch the outage map as well as the damage reports on BOX

Some tidal concerns on south facing?? 

https://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn&region=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=ctlond

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8 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Are the smaller rivers and streams free flowing, ie no ice jam concerns. 2-4” of rain with melting pack presents hydro concerns alone

Local rivers have ice but not thick.  The issue will more or less just be the water in W NE. 
I would be concerned for places in S Vermont and E NY. 

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yup, my older brother will be one of them.   He said the number of wind events the past few years has really helped with his girls’ college bills. 
still sucks to be called out on holidays. 

I'm doubting there is a way to track it, but have the last 10 years or so had more big wind events in SNE than usual?  Sure seems that way...

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm doubting there is a way to track it, but have the last 10 years or so had more big wind events in SNE than usual?  Sure seems that way...

He has been with Verizon for 18 years and said he has been much busier with overtime ever since the Springfield tornado in 2011. 
I take his opinion with the caveat that crews from pretty far away can get called in for fairly localized events so it’s difficult to speak for New England as a whole.  
He is stationed out of Haverhill and Boston which were not affected by the tornado yet he spent a week working down in that Wilbraham - Sturbridge corridor that got nailed. 

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58 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I recall S NH blowing away with +RA and 40s in Feb 2010.

That's the one where the storm center ripped up the Merrimack River and anyone north of the center ripped right? Remember sitting in my dorm at U Lowell with the wind ripping wondering what the hell was going on. I don't think winds of that magnitude were in the forecast??

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The drought is the only real weather event we’ve had here this year.

At least that actually materialized... unliked any winter “threats” over the next two weeks.

2020 is one of the dullest years for weather that I can recall.  The drought certainly impacted many people especially those with wells. 

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