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Christmas Eve/Day Annual Scrooger Event


Baroclinic Zone
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8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Don't often see >40 knots of MOS around here. 

Screen Shot 2020-12-22 at 9.50.36 AM.png

That is beyond impressive...wow. 

I'm still conflicted on the overall wind potential. My thinking is still gusts in the 40-50 mph range but there will probably see some higher gusts in the typical favored locations...but is that going to be the coast or higher elevations? 

For a more significant wind threat, I think I'd like to see the sfc low probably another 75-100 miles farther northwest. As currently modeled, I think it may be difficult to full swing the sfc warm front through a large part of the region. I could see it getting hung up around the MA Pike or maybe even a bit farther south. When you also get these highly anomalous LLJ's this time of year, it also usually indicates potential for a much stronger inversion (WAA aloft > WAA at the sfc). I guess it also depends too on how deep the inversion is but as we've seen it doesn't take much of an inversion to prevent big winds from mixing down. 

I also don't see much in the way of convection to aid in any transport. It looks quite stable throughout the column outside of some subtle unstable layers. Forcing is certainly enough to support convection but don't seeing much instability aloft. Having a fully saturated column doesn't help either. I also don't like the super heavy rain which is coincident with the max LLJ. This will further destabilize the column and lapse rates are very poor so mixing is going to be weak. 

I see sustained winds being strong (20-30 mph) but it might be tough to full gusts much above 40-50 mph with exception of the usual spots. 

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18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think VT, W MA and E NY will definitely have small stream flooding issues. 

Yea I would be worried about SVT and NY. Throw 2" of rain on feet of snow, streets will be flooded out. The Susquehanna around Binghamton and the West River of SVT will be in trouble. Luckily there should not be much ice up there yet. Deerfield, Westfield, and Housie should be pretty high as well. 

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I don't get why people on social media always have to show a model prog which is the worst case scenario. Hey the GFS snow map shows 12-18'' but the NAM only shows 3-6''...let's share the GFS map b/c it shows the most snow and everyone gets aroused by hype so let's arouse them. euro showing max wind gusts of 75 mph...NAM only 55 mph...let's show the euro. NAM showing 5000 CAPE, GFS showing 2000...let's show NAM. Everything always has to be the most aggressive, most extreme output. IT's FOOKING RIDICULOUS. WTF IS THE POINT?? Oh here is a SHARPpy sounding that indicates PDS Tornado...I'm going to share that even though what's presented on the sounding is probably more indicative of straight-line winds with a bit of curvature but it's PDS tornado and I want to scare the crap out of people. OUTRAGEOUS. 

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35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just an unreal look. May go down as one of our all time screams .. and on Christmas Day no less 

3rpkGHr.jpgThat’s so off. First of all, it doesn’t shape the coastline magically. Second, highest gusts likely just away from shoreline because SSTs will cause an inversion. 

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2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

And it may come at a time when many power companies may be operating at less than ideal manpower requirements

 

My neighbor is a lineman. Holiday pay is triple overtime with a 16 hour minimum for storm duty. He makes 60$ an hour so he would make $180×16= $2,880. Lineman will jump on any storms as the money is absurd. When they go out of state your on the clock the moment you get in the truck. Your even on the clock sleeping in a hotel. He has had $10-15k weekly paychecks doing 7 days of 16 hour shifts.  

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2 minutes ago, BrianW said:

My neighbor is a lineman. Holiday pay is triple overtime with a 16 hour minimum for storm duty. He makes 60$ an hour so he would make $180×16= $2,880. Lineman will jump on any storms as the money is absurd. When they go out of state your on the clock the moment you get in the truck. Your even on the clock sleeping in a hotel. He has had $10-15k weekly paychecks doing 7 days of 16 hour shifts.  

:o :blink:

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