Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)

[Kasper]

Kuchera 

[Carvers Gap]

12z RGEM...

[Carvers Gap]

Pretty crazy.  You can see the convective snow bands in the RGEM above.  Some of those bands are picking up very light traces of snow into southern parts of Georgia.

[Jed33]

HRRR looking good! That’s not even the end yet.

[Gr8estShowOnRockytop]

23 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Hello Cleveland Tn!

How is it looking for Cleveland? Paul Barys says nada.

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS looks very similar to 6z.  By the time it runs again, this event will be under way.  So, that is basically its last run(with the totality of the event) for folks to the west of TRI.

[Carvers Gap]

Definitely a westward expansion of snow on the 12z GFS, especially important for those along I-75 in John's neck of the woods and London/Corbin.

[AMZ8990]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

12z GFS looks very similar to 6z.  By the time it runs again, this event will be under way.  So, that is basically its last run(with the totality of the event) for folks to the west of TRI.

You gonna try to get up to carvers gap tonight or tomorrow if you can make The drive?

[Kentucky]

4+ WPC probability, thanks to everyone that contributes to this awesome community. Good luck and Merry Christmas 

 

[snowbird1230]

14 minutes ago, Gr8estShowOnRockytop said:

How is it looking for Cleveland? Paul Barys says nada.

RGEM gives you hope 

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

You gonna try to get up to carvers gap tonight or tomorrow if you can make The drive?

LOL. I  thought about it - very briefly.  By the time it starts snowing there...not sure I can make it back to TRI.  Might try to swing up there Saturday if roads permit.  I suspect(if this verifies), they may have near blizzard conditions overnight and into early tomorrow.  I have great respect for how bad the weather can get there...My scout troop (the year prior to me joining way back when) went up to the first bald to camp.  There are stories that they couldn't hold their tents down(tents today are much more suitable for higher winds).  About halfway through the night in howling winds and rain, they packed up and walked back to Carvers Gap to whatever transportation they had - not sure if they slept in the van or came home that night.  These were pretty savvy kids and wouldn't normally pack-up...I have been up there a few times after big snow storms - waist deep drifts type stuff.  White knuckle stuff coming back down.  The road up to the gap(not sure if you have been) is on the shady side of the mountain.  So, it gets super icy.  

[AMZ8990]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL. I  thought about it - very briefly.  By the time it starts snowing there...not sure I can make it back to TRI.  Might try to swing up there Saturday if roads permit.  I suspect(if this verifies), they may have near blizzard conditions overnight and into early tomorrow.  I have great respect for how bad the weather can get there...My scout troop (the year prior to me joining way back when) went up to the first bald to camp.  There are stories that they couldn't hold their tents down(tents today are much more suitable for higher winds).  About halfway through the night in howling winds and rain, they packed up and walked back to Carvers Gap to whatever transportation they had - not sure if they slept in the van or came home that night.  These were pretty savvy kids and wouldn't normally pack-up...I have been up there a few times after big snow storms - waist deep drifts type stuff.  White knuckle stuff coming back down.  The road up to the gap(not sure if you have been) is on the shady side of the mountain.  So, it gets super icy.  

I figured it crossed your mind that’s why I wondered, haha.  I’d probably be tempted too.  And no I haven’t ever had the pleasure of getting up there, hopefully one day I can.  Definitely looks like it’s gonna get dicey up there tonight!  Can’t imagine being up there during a scenario like your story, little too close for comfort for my blood!!  Do they have a webcam up there by chance?  Would be cool to see what’s going on up there during the storm 

[Carvers Gap]

MRX update...9:49AM

.DISCUSSION...

The main change for the morning update will be to end the Wind
Advisory and High Wind Warning, as obs around the area show wind
gusts falling below criteria in the last few hours.

The forecast for snowfall this afternoon still appears on track,
as the latest model guidance shows a changeover to snow starting
in the Plateau between 1-2 PM, in the TN Valley between 2-4 PM,
and in NE TN/SW VA between 4-6 PM. Behind this transition zone,
there will be a 3-4 hour period where snowfall rates could be
high, around an inch per hour possible with localized snow bands
producing even higher rates. Steep low level lapse rates and some
low level CAPE around 175 J/kg may even produce some thundersnow
in NE TN/SW VA around 4-6 pm, as shown by the HRRR.

Travel conditions will deteriorate quickly during and in the
hours after the transition to snow. The forecast snow
accumulations and the W/W/A products will not be changed at this
time.

[PowellVolz]

MRX update...9:49AM

.DISCUSSION...The main change for the morning update will be to end the WindAdvisory and High Wind Warning, as obs around the area show windgusts falling below criteria in the last few hours.The forecast for snowfall this afternoon still appears on track,as the latest model guidance shows a changeover to snow startingin the Plateau between 1-2 PM, in the TN Valley between 2-4 PM,and in NE TN/SW VA between 4-6 PM. Behind this transition zone,there will be a 3-4 hour period where snowfall rates could behigh, around an inch per hour possible with localized snow bandsproducing even higher rates. Steep low level lapse rates and somelow level CAPE around 175 J/kg may even produce some thundersnowin NE TN/SW VA around 4-6 pm, as shown by the HRRR.Travel conditions will deteriorate quickly during and in thehours after the transition to snow. The forecast snowaccumulations and the W/W/A products will not be changed at thistime.

I’ll take 3-6 hours of lake effect type snow banding.

 

 

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[Carvers Gap]

15z HRRR( @Reb mentioned the HRRR trends earlier) has really beefed up in comparison to 12z.  I am about out of memory space, but a Kuchera Ratio from 12z(full run) and 15z(full run) would be interesting to look at at the trend.  Even comparing the same time of day is impressive.  

[BlunderStorm]

Getting down to the make it or break it part of the event for a lot of areas. Hoping that any moment now the radar will start filling back in towards Crossville and Chatty.

[Jed33]

The HRRR just got even more “beefier” wow!

[BlunderStorm]

One more Euro map for the heck of it.

[Carvers Gap]

Euro Kuchera...shift east a hair with heavier snow.  Final run before the modeled storm.  

[PowellVolz]

Awful quiet up in here. Anyone looking at temps vs predictions on the mods?


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[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Jed33 said:

The HRRR just got even more “beefier” wow!

Have to get all of the way to the end of that run.  Lots more snow fell after that image.  Fingers crossed, Jed!  

[PowellVolz]

Euro Kuchera...shift east a hair with heavier snow.  Final run before the modeled storm.  

I’ll take 3-5” across Knox Co and cut the check right now


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[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

I’ll take 3-5” across Knox Co and cut the check right now


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17z HRRR is backing down a hair, but yeah...we roll with that right now!!!

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Awful quiet up in here. Anyone looking at temps vs predictions on the mods?


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Been out running in this mess.  Just got back.

[Jed33]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Have to get all of the way to the end of that run.  Lots more snow fell after that image.  Fingers crossed, Jed!  

I just saw that! I should have kept going haha.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like the system is beginning to back up the flow just a bit as a line to the west of Knox Co is beginning to build - real time and not a model comment.

[PowellVolz]

17z HRRR is backing down a hair, but yeah...we roll with that right now!!!

I’m north of 40 and east of 75 in knox co. Mods have stayed about the same for me and matches up with the Euro around the 4-5” mark. I know we usually cut the totals in 1/2 but I think the high ratio from the cold pool might make some of that back up.

 

 

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[Carvers Gap]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

I’m north of 40 and east of 75 in knox co. It has stayed about the same for me and matches up with the Euro around the 4-5” mark. I know we usually cut the totals in 1/2 but I think the high ratio from the cold pool might make some of that back up.


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Bring it!

[PowellVolz]

Bring it!

The valley is still a coin flip though unless you are above 1500ft


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[Carvers Gap]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

The valley is still a coin flip though unless you are above 1500ft


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I like what I am seeing on the radar to the west of Knoxville and to the south.  Looks a lot like that 16z run of the HRRR.  Precip slides past, lee side forms, precip blossoms to the west.