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1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Remember, new is on the left.  12z GFS operational compared to 6z. Looking back, the GFS "should" have been stronger.  Low placement was decent, but precip was lacking once the changeover occurred.  That is a legit option.  

826507743_ScreenShot2020-12-22at1_21_48PM.png.c10cbdb8a74e8bd53dce0a380a20d158.png

but this is also a bit more generous to those in eastern middle Tennessee.  Would be nice to get more on our forum into the "schmaybe" games!

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12z operational scorecard:

UKMET:  NE TN scraper but otherwise a whiff.  

GFS: Plateau and elevation dependent in TN.  Eastern half of KY scores but less than previous runs.

Euro:  Consistent and beefs up numbers.

CMC: Ohio...wow.  High end of probability and a bit of an outlier.   

Trends:  Westward jog on GFS and NAM.  Others are fairly similar including RGEM.

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20 minutes ago, Kasper said:

That’s so close just pull back to the west a little more and we would be golden! 

I think the potential is there for a big thump for somebody.  Timing a strong cold front which is chasing into a line of precip from the West is tough.  Ideally, we would want the slp to slow as it forms.  

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Just browsing the Euro...weak slp pressure forms in east-central Alabama.  It moves NNE to extreme NE TN.  Meanwhile a very weak area of slp forms near Charleston, SC, and moves along the coast.  That feature is not on the GFS which I can find. 

I think it’s going to be a wild 24hrs. A mod will drop all the snow while another one goes crazy but it gets somewhat sorted out by 12z tomorrow. If we can get the NAM to come back a little east I will be feeling better.


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Speaking from experience, being in the bullseye across most modeling for a week straight virtually never works out for me. That's where I've been on almost every model run except the last couple of Euro and UK runs for about 8 days, this event hit the GFS at 228 hours. Don't know if it will be right but except for yesterday it's been rock steady. 

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2 minutes ago, uncheelfan said:

So the low forming is kind of like a miller Bish set up?

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
 

I don't think so.  I think this is more like the base of that trough forms two waves.  One runs up through western NC and then another forms right along the coast.  These powerhouse cold fronts have all kinds of energy.  Short story...I don't see energy transfer to the coast.  Now, there may be some energy transfer from one side of the apps to another at some point, especially further north.

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