Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Christmas Eve 2020 Snow Potential


cyclone77
 Share

Recommended Posts

As RC and many others have pointed out in the mid-range thread there's growing potential for something a little more substantial Wed night into Thursday (Christmas Eve).  May be a bit of a thread-the-needle event depending on how it phases, but hopefully a lucky swath could pick up some fresh snow just in time for Christmas.  :santa:

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro OP definite hail Mary. Not much ensemble support and no other model support save one run days ago on the GFS. Based on this pseudo El Nino pattern that has established itself would favor a wave developing further east affecting Eastern Ind, Ohio, PA, and interior NE. GFS, GEM, and Ukie seem to show this more often. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re. Euro op, the 00z run wasn't a huge difference from the 12z run conceptually, just shifted farther south with the surface low. Key thing is the wave rounding the trough being allowed to come up and have a chance to phase in with the northern wave. Member spread increased between the 00z and the 06z EPS, so we might be reshuffling the deck, and need to see the clustering lean more toward the southern solutions on the 12z run and the other ensemble systems as well moving forward.

 

As is seemingly always the case, we have pieces of energy coming from two data sparse regions plus the reliance on a phase to play out in a way that results in a favorable outcome for our area. With the very mild air mass out ahead of the possible system and owing to this strong positive mid-level height anomalies to the east, we also can't rule out a farther northwest rainer cutter. I think chances of a decent event somewhere in the sub have increased a bit, but still need a lot to happen just right for the Chicago metro snow hole.

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS and most of the boring progressive solutions are breaking off a southern cutoff from the wave over the pacific before the trough gets to the west coast
Hopefully we can avoid that, keep the wave intact and allow the trough to dig more into the four corners region
 
 
 
06z GEFS was a step in the right direction, pretty easy to see just by looking at height anomaly run to run comparison with the 00z.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

well beyond useful range but the NAM is much less progressive than the GFS and digs he wave into central CA
 
FWIW, the NAM wiped the floor with the current GFS from 84 hours out to verification on the east coast storm. Should keep an eye on how the parallel GFS is handling things because it performed much better than the operational with that system.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

FWIW, the NAM wiped the floor with the current GFS from 84 hours out to verification on the east coast storm. Should keep an eye on how the parallel GFS is handling things because it performed much better than the operational with that system.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Off topic but yea, huge win for the NAM out East with that storm, even from its dreadful range

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

New Years Eve 2007 and we had a similar set-up.  You all remember what that storm did?? It wasn't good for the lower lakes.  

Wat? Everyone from NW burbs of Detroit and west made out great with that storm. E Lwr lakes maybe not, but SMI and NIL are also lwr lakes region.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Off topic but yea, huge win for the NAM out East with that storm, even from its dreadful range

Seems as that was a much more straight-forward scenario fwiw. Hedging my bets on any model really having a strong grasp on this system at this point. All options seem to remain on the table. How soon do we begin to eliminate those is the question.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Wat? Everyone from NW burbs of Detroit and west made out great with that storm. E Lwr lakes maybe not, but SMI and NIL are also lwr lakes region.

Ok.  Makes sense now.  I live in Toledo, so It was a win for the glacial ridge and northwest.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GEM was much more 00z Euro-like but also emphasizes the thread the needle nature of the setup. The southern wave goes neutral to negative tilt on its own and the system takes off but cuts too far northwest, followed by full phasing of northern and southern waves. From a big picture perspective, it's a step in the right direction.

 

Edit: The 12z GEFS was also another step in the right direction.

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Re. Euro op, the 00z run wasn't a huge difference from the 12z run conceptually, just shifted farther south with the surface low. Key thing is the wave rounding the trough being allowed to come up and have a chance to phase in with the northern wave. Member spread increased between the 00z and the 06z EPS, so we might be reshuffling the deck, and need to see the clustering lean more toward the southern solutions on the 12z run and the other ensemble systems as well moving forward.

As is seemingly always the case, we have pieces of energy coming from two data sparse regions plus the reliance on a phase to play out in a way that results in a favorable outcome for our area. With the very mild air mass out ahead of the possible system and owing to this strong positive mid-level height anomalies to the east, we also can't rule out a farther northwest rainer cutter. I think chances of a decent event somewhere in the sub have increased a bit, but still need a lot to happen just right for the Chicago metro snow hole.

Here's a look at the location of the energy from the time of 6z ECMWF initialization. I suspect model guidance will continue to struggle as the energy is embedded within a broad/complex jet streak out over the North Pacific. The energy is incident on the west coast by ~0z Tuesday.  

image.thumb.png.a3133712cc6780b12552fe7a8cace485.png

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Cary67 said:

favor a wave developing further east affecting Eastern Ind, Ohio, PA, and interior NE. GFS, GEM, and Ukie seem to show this more often. 

I am far more concerned about this scenario... a late/east developer (of the secondary low)... than it coming far enough west to rain on us.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Glass half full post.  There is more than one swath of snow.  Not that you'd have confidence in this particular evolution.

floop-ecmwf_full-2020121912.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif.0c888e47092bb60ca5d4b593b78fadb4.gif

Decent wishcast for GRR.  The last one that looked like this at this range dumped 2" of rain and zero accumulating snow though. :(  Previous runs had better lake effect events for me on Christmas day.  Would really prefer the main low to move closer to James Bay for westerly cyclonic wrap-around.  This coastal-low dominant crap brings cold with little LES.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...