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HIGH IMPACT Stormy Christmas (EVE and morning) 12/24-25/20 6P-10A


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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was the strongest wind gust recorded in Central Park. But that was an ENE flow event. This is more a SE to S flow event.


Wind Records (Peak Gusts in MPH)
  Location
  Measurement
  Date(s)
  Central Park (1951-pres.)
   ENE 78 mph
   December 2, 1974

that was the strongest wind gust recorded at NYC ever....78 mph on 12/2/74?  what about Hazel and its 113 mph?  That was at the Battery out of the south wasn't it?

Do you have the highest winds reported at the various stations?  I think Sandy holds JFK, EWR and LGA records though not sure.

Dec 1992 hit 78 at LGA and Mar 2010 hit 80 at JFK just going by memory.

Out of all of the above Dec 1992 caused the most damage (and it was the most widespread)....3 days of horrendousness lol

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 12z NAM wind gusts are 60 mph+ just inland  and 70 mph+ near the shore.

I can't believe how far inland it has these gusts. 

I can't imagine this is correct but if we see widespread 60 temps with 60+ dews then there won't be much of an inversion left. 

Not much snowpack south of I-78 either.

Also given the colder ocean I'd imagine the strongest gusts could be slightly more inland right? 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I can't believe how far inland it has these gusts. 

I can't imagine this is correct but if we see widespread 60 temps with 60+ dews then there won't be much of an inversion left. 

Not much snowpack south of I-78 either.

Also given the colder ocean I'd imagine the strongest gusts could be slightly more inland right? 

That’s the challenge with the raw 2m  temperatures. They are often too low with surface temperatures during very strong WAA events.  The NAM MOS is 61 at EWR instead of 55 raw.

KEWR   NAM MOS GUIDANCE   12/23/2020  1200 UTC                      
 DT /DEC  23/DEC  24                /DEC  25                /DEC  26 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    41          59          53          53    27 
 TMP  44 46 44 42 42 43 45 50 53 54 55 59 61 61 59 53 51 47 42 32 28 

Raw

TSRA 008OVC389    0.0    2.3
  45 12/25 09Z   55     54     159      29    0.27  0.01    559    558   11.0 -13.1  998 100 -TSRA 006OVC387    0.0    8.3
  48 12/25 12Z   55     54     196      12    0.75  0.06    557    556    7.4 -12.9  999 100 

 

 

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If the 1000-500 thickness gets to 561dm it will get to around 61F or a bit higher in rainy BL wind in excess of 22 kt.  In this case the NAM BL wind is 43KT... about as high as Ive seen it in a non-hurricane.  I'll temper the NAM a bit for exuberance but it won't be more than 7 MPH too high, imo. The inversion looks more isothermal to me, and that 08z sfc temp is 57(probably SST nudged down). Warm the sfc temp to 60 or 61 and it becomes more unstable.  

Finally, a 12z map of HRRR max gusts (not HRRRX) for our area... a very good low starting point I think.  Also, the HRRR  is picking up on short narrow lines of convection after 06z in the Hud Valley LI eastward portion. This is very similar to the tamer ECMWF.  

 

Screen Shot 2020-12-23 at 11.43.58 AM.png

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1 hour ago, allgame830 said:

Sorry can someone explain briefly what a stout low level inversion would mean for our area??

it means more stable air near the surface which would limit transfer of wind downward. the models could be too cool like bluewave mentioned but i'm still cautious about big gusts 

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Upton NY
255 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

CTZ009-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176>179-240400-
/O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0002.201224T2300Z-201225T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0005.201224T2300Z-201225T1500Z/
Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
255 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.
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Hi!  Good to see warnings up for Wind and Flooding in the various locations and watches elsewhere. In the morning, I'll add an OBS-NOWCAST thread for 6P Thursday-~6A or 10A Friday depending on what the 00z-06z/24 modeling consensus looks to be. Not much more I can add tonight. I know some of us will be wrapped up in Christmas eve activities and while I anticipate the ability to post at 5AM Christmas Day, lack of Internet may force me to forego??? All the best on somehow enjoying yet another big wind event. As with all topics,  summary data will be added to the primary thread sometime late Christmas Day, or day after Christmas.  Reminder while flooding will occur, note that larger slower rising rivers may not exceed flood stage til a day or two after the rain ends. 744P/23

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34 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Pardon my reaction, but this makes me very sad to be happening on Christmas eve and morning.  Hope all stay safe and warm especially if without power.  Sigh. 

The utility companies are planning for this. I know of several people who have relatives that work for Con Edison and they already told them they will be working on Christmas Eve and Christmas day. I'm sure it's the same across the other nearby utility covered areas as well.

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s the challenge with the raw 2m  temperatures. They are often too low with surface temperatures during very strong WAA events.  The NAM MOS is 61 at EWR instead of 55 raw.


KEWR   NAM MOS GUIDANCE   12/23/2020  1200 UTC                      
 DT /DEC  23/DEC  24                /DEC  25                /DEC  26 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    41          59          53          53    27 
 TMP  44 46 44 42 42 43 45 50 53 54 55 59 61 61 59 53 51 47 42 32 28 

Raw


TSRA 008OVC389    0.0    2.3
  45 12/25 09Z   55     54     159      29    0.27  0.01    559    558   11.0 -13.1  998 100 -TSRA 006OVC387    0.0    8.3
  48 12/25 12Z   55     54     196      12    0.75  0.06    557    556    7.4 -12.9  999 100 

 

 

would having this happen in the middle of the night mean a little less of an impact than if it were happening in the middle of the afternoon?

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