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Dec 16-17 Storm OBS Thread


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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

With the pivot this can get wild. Incredibly heavy snow encompassing the capital district. 

Yep, you can see the rotation north of Harrisburg after that it goes into the pivot. 3-4 hours at least of these rates, then the snow rates will weaken but not end until later this morning.

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...Very heavy snow will continue early this morning...

Expect snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour through 5 AM with
whiteout conditions. Travel will remain very difficult during
this time. Motorists are urged not to travel, but if you must
travel, be prepared for snow covered roads and near zero
visibilities.
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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Yep, you can see the rotation north of Harrisburg after that it goes into the pivot. 3-4 hours at least of these rates, then the snow rates will weaken but not end until later this morning.

2' possible here....3-4' in Binghamton. Insane, snowgrowth is the only issue here it's good but not what you'd expect 

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I can buy 40" from the storm and 8-10" from enhancement.

Yeah to be honest I seem to recall 48 or 50" for SYR which could have included back end lake enhancement or outright LES. I had a good write up on that event saved a couple of computers ago but that's gone.  Not sure if it was an NWS product but I think it was.

I can say that the map i posted was rubbish in SE CT. We had 3-5" on snow and then the kitchen sink of gruel thereafter.  No way eastern CT had 6" on the coast. I was 15 miles inland and I measured 4".  In West Hartford there was 20"...on the other side of the CT river. 

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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Yeah to be honest I seem to recall 48 or 50" for SYR which could have included back end lake enhancement or outright LES. I had a good write up on that event saved a couple of computers ago but that's gone.  Not sure if it was an NWS product but I think it was.

I can say that the map i posted was rubbish in SE CT. We had 3-5" on snow and then the kitchen sink of gruel thereafter.  No way eastern CT had 6" on the coast. I was 15 miles inland and I measured 4".  In West Hartford there was 20"...on the other side of the CT river. 

Yeah Syracuse got around 42" from the storm I believe.

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

I wish they had sent Cantore to BGM to witness/video this awesome snow instead of Bethlehem, PA to show us a sleet and dry slot storm.

I really should have drove there and stayed at my uncles and aunts place in the hills of binghamton, its technically on the way to the Adirondacks where im going to Friday. Bad planning by me.

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This was sort of well modeled in some respects (thinking slp) but what's going on near BGM is a galactic bust.  Something like this was shown in 850/700 Fgen on some models...but over CPA.  The mid levels were all wrong in placement, too far south by 40-100 miles i think.   Also, the snowfall algorithms are going to be wrong in the other direction south of here, much of PA, and coastal areas. Will be interesting to see how SNE makes out.  The warm nose was only hinted at down there and it ended up jacking down snow totals it seems so far.  NWP snow algos are a general swag but we all go nuts on them.  

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I really should have drove there and stayed at my uncles and aunts place in the hills of binghamton, its technically on the way to the Adirondacks where im going to Friday. Bad planning by me.

I was going to snow chase to BGM but didn’t think they’d get nearly this much, plus I was too lazy to drive there lol. Absolutely pissed I didn’t pull the trigger. 

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Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said:

I was going to snow chase to BGM but didn’t think they’d get nearly this much, plus I was too lazy to drive there lol. Absolutely pissed I didn’t pull the trigger. 

Yeah lmk next time I'm off tomorrow until Sunday for my trip I would have went. I thought it was going to be 12-15 with inch per hour rates. Never expected this.

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