Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Does the hrrr have any cold bias? It’s been very steady with giving the metros more of a front end thump probably the steadiest I’ve seen anything in the past couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Temps appear to mainly be cooler than modeled thus far. No model had me at 22 at midnight. HP also appears to be better positioned / a weeeee bit stronger on the UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Zdudswx said: Does the hrrr have any cold bias? It’s been very steady with giving the metros more of a front end thump probably the steadiest I’ve seen anything in the past couple days Not sure honestly. Think it may have either a wet bias or a tendency to see sleet as snow. that being said... it could be onto something. WAA with these classic Miller A’s tend to overproduce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 39 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: The high is not even in Maine yet and it’s 5mb stronger and that low gonna get shoved bit more east and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Hrrr gives everyone around i95 (even down to dc) about 4 inches or so before the change fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: The high is not even in Maine yet and it’s 5mb stronger and that low gonna get shoved bit more east and south The HP also hasn’t retreated as much by hour 30 as was being shown at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Honestly just waiting for the euro to go even further west with the system so we legit have every single card on the table 10 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I’ll hug this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 WB 4Z HRRR at 5pm. You need to subtract sleet from the snow totals. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Any other storm I’d have much more confidence in the outcome this close to the storm. The forecast looks pretty locked from 15 on west. However...in the C MD, N VA and the I 95 corridor, not so much. Models still differ a great deal at both the surface and the upper levels. Going to truly be a nowcasting situation with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, jayyy said: Any other storm I’d have much more confidence in the outcome this close to the storm. The forecast looks pretty locked from 15 on west. However...in the C MD, N VA and the I 95 corridor, not so much. Models still differ a great deal at both the surface and the upper levels. Going to truly be a nowcasting situation with this one. This is the first time in awhile I truly don’t have a clue what’s gonna happen in my neck of the woods. Setting the bar super low here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 4Z HRRR at 5pm 850s 0c is literally 10 miles SE of me. Kept all snow... barely. Best place to be for QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Zdudswx said: This is the first time in awhile I truly don’t have a clue what’s gonna happen in my neck of the woods. Setting the bar super low here Not a bad idea. I think 2-5” is a good call for downtown Baltimore. I feel good about at least 2-3” with the front end thump being depicted on mesos and Hi res - Lollipop 4”They can usually sniff out WAA thump way better than globals can. Not sold on backend snows at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Euro just slightly warmer at h85 through 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, jayyy said: Not a bad idea. I think 2-5” is a good call for downtown Baltimore. I feel good about at least 2-3” with the front end thump being depicted on mesos and Hi res - Lollipop 4”They can usually sniff out WAA thump way better than globals can. Not sold on backend snows at this juncture. I agree with that! It’s just insane how tight the gradient is around here a 10 mile difference from giving my house a boom with 6in and a total bust with an 1”. I also agree the mesos are sniffing out exactly where the r/s line is gonna be. If hrrr verifies most of us will be extremely happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 4Z HRRR at 5pm. You need to subtract sleet from the snow totals. Thanks. Looks amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 HRRR is keeping the SLP further SE like the globals were a day or two ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Euro improved a good amount. Takes the low East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Zdudswx said: Euro improved a good amount. Takes the low East Well it did until hr23 when it did a massive jump NW with the SLP... so weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 The low no longer goes straight up the bay. Definitely an improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: Well it did until hr23 when it did a massive jump NW with the SLP... so weird Every model has been somewhat jumpy. We truly won’t know until it actually happens. It’s insane how much variance we have right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Euro has done this two runs in a row. It doesn’t make sense to me, at all. The pattern is fairly progressive, a ridge is pumping to the south... all conducive of a NE track, not NW. I must be missing something... HRRR track would be swell for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 wow...the euro is decent 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 WB 0Z EURO 7pm. Warmest panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Hi Rez Euro is 1.6 QPF in Winchester. All Snow. It was actually colder up top than 18Z. Gets sleet line up to Front Royal for a short period of time. It is a mauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 After mulling over guidance for a bit, decided to make a final update to the forecasted snow for the area and where I think the max will occur. I did trim totals back for many, but I do think areas north of I-70 stay snow or sleet through the duration of the storm. The wrap around from the CCB when the 85H low develops and swings south of Rt50 will help tack some fresh powder on the typical suspects over the northern tier. 2-4" could be had from just that, so it'll be nice after changing to sleet for a while. Time to let it all play out. Here's my projected totals for snow/sleet: East of I-95 near Baltimore: 2-4" with max to 5"; will mix with sleet then change to sleet/rain for a time East of I-95 near DC: T-2" then changing to rain mid afternoon DCA: T-2" IAD: 3-7" BWI: 2-5" Eastern HoCo: 3-7" Western HoCo: 5-9" Southeast MoCo: 2-4" Northern MoCo: 4-9" Loudon: 4-8" with highest across western Loudon NoVA south of DC: T-1" Southern Carroll: 5-9" Northern Carroll (Westminster and north): 7-12" with local to 14" Southern Frederick County: 4-8" Northern Frederick: 8-14" with local to 16" Washington County: 9-15" with local to 18" Winchester: 8-14" with local to 16" WV Panhandle: 9-15" with local to 18" Southern Harford County: 4-9" Northern Harford County: 6-10" Southern Baltimore County: 3-7" Northern Baltimore County: 6-10" with local to 12" Southern PA from Chambersburg to Gettysburg: 10-16" with local to 20" Gettysburg to York: 9-15" with local to 18" Bullseye: Rt 99 in PA down to western MD, moving NE through Central PA into NE PA: 18-24" with local to 30" 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: Hi Rez Euro is 1.6 QPF in Winchester. All Snow. It was actually colder up top than 18Z. Gets sleet line up to Front Royal for a short period of time. It is a mauling. I’m salivating at that run here in west Carroll county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 WB EURO storm totals. Subtract other frozen/ liquid from snow map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB EURO storm totals. Subtract other frozen/ liquid from snow map. Woooof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Frikin PUMMELED! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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