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December 16/17 Winter Event


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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not sure I think the NAM was a worse run. Could be just me but actually thought the 3k improved

maybe its good for you but its horrible up here. i thought 00z was awful and it still gave me double digits. 12z doesnt even give me 6 on snowmaps 

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

At this point everyone in here would take the RGEM and run. 

I mean, I was thinking a dusting-2” could be a better forecast for MBY potentially. 3K NAM and RGEM keep hope alive that I could exceed last years total snow (3.5”) from this storm. 

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There are multiple problems here. First off, certain models always show too much snow like Kuchera and 3K. People should not even look at those. Next, there were always models that suggested this was not a great event for many but people decide to toss those out for no reason. You can't just toss something out because you do not like it lol. Also, we know the NW trend. This being locked in days ago was always bad, it could only trend worse. You do not want to have something locked in 5 days away, it will always change.

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

that includes sleet though. 

     exactly.    no one should ever post a 10:1 map when the precip type images clearly show a ton of sleet.     The NCEP models tally snow and sleet together and put out a liquid total;   a 10:1 ratio applied to that  has no chance to be even in the ballpark.

 

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Lotta sleet.  The 3K never torches us that badly. 

It is definitely interesting to see even when the low is going as far W as these models have shown, surface temps barely touch freezing or don't go above for a lot of the northern tier folks. 

The 3k wasn't a "worse" run per say. I'm thinking a lot of these models are showing mesolow features as the true SLP, whereas the h85 and h5 tracks give us a better idea of where it actually would be. 

 

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I have tropical tidbits up and the 0 degree isotherm at 850 straddles I-95 and I-95 never gets above -4 at 700mb which would imply rimmed snow or ice pellets. It isn't shoved west like 00z or 06z. This is definitely an improvement. I REALLY hope the NAM is wrong, but it's scored some big coups on thermals in the past. 

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Inches are inches. At least TWSS

snow is very much IMBY and I hate sleet. So f this storm.

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The 3k NAM is 2 feet in Randolph. What the hell am I even doing down here? LOL

you missed us and wanted to be miserable

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