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December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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3 minutes ago, high risk said:

     You sure about that?     Both the 12 and 3 km versions seems to have snow in your area by 2 or 3pm.    (I'm commenting on the precip timing, as it does look like you will go sleet.)

you're right. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The dry slot is now a problem here because the track has shifted NW.  It didn’t get dryer it just shifted the heavy qpf up into PA!  That dryslot is because the best WAA and fgen have shifted northwest by then because the track shifted NW.   It wouldn’t be snowing where that dryslot is anyways because there is a huge mid level warm layer and that’s why the dryslot. To simplify the WAA lift stopped because the cold has been scoured out and is no longer resisting and forcing the warmth to lift over it.  Again there will be 20”+ totals with this storm. It’s plenty wet. Those totals just won’t be anywhere near us as the track keeps shifting north. 

Right, I know. These storms where we need monster rates to verify always seem to disappoint in that department.

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13 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Dropped to 30 briefly here in mt pleasant

rock creek park really does have an effect on its immediate surroundings.  even where i live downtown (but close to the park) it is a couple degrees colder at night here than even a few blocks to the east.  we got down to 32.4 here, DCA 33.

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Just now, pazzo83 said:

rock creek park really does have an effect on its immediate surroundings.  even where i live downtown (but close to the park) it is a couple degrees colder at night here than even a few blocks to the east.  we got down to 32.4 here, DCA 33.

Exactly what I was thinking. I’m about a block from the park...

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Some folks will get upset that this busted, but it speaks to the state of forecasting honestly. The models aren't to be taken as what will happen, only an input into formulating a forecast. Even some mets I think have forgotten that. Models are a tool - not a prediction.

There were some like @ers-wxman1 that sounded caution on this early and said the airmass wasn't conducive to a big event.

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