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December 16/17 Winter Event


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3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

This is a cold rain 'near miss' and/or sleet fest for most here. Fun while it lasted ... it follows a similar pattern, we should be used to it by now.

i wouldnt give up yet. Here is the NAM by 21z before the changeover. namconus_asnow_neus_12.png

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

Are you gonna see a flake? LOL

At this rate maybe just a few to start and then sleet and dryslot/drizzle. The models are really showing a dryslot here with the last few runs. This storm sure fell apart. NAM drives precip up to my place in Randolph now, very different from prior good runs here. 

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

At this rate maybe just a few to start and then sleet and dryslot/drizzle. The models are really showing a dryslot here with the last few runs. This storm sure fell apart. NAM drives precip up to my place in Randolph now, very different from prior good runs here. 

I wouldn't mind thump --> mix --> rain --> dryslot.  It's better than hours and hours of heavy rain at 35 degrees.  

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3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I wouldn't mind thump --> mix --> rain --> dryslot.  It's better than hours and hours of heavy rain at 35 degrees.  

Yeah, the NAM unfortunately shows more mixing out toward I-81, but it seems to be depicting more sleet than rain in DC with the temp not getting much above 32-33.

 

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1 minute ago, chris21 said:

Yeah, the NAM unfortunately shows more mixing out toward I-81, but it seems to be depicting more sleet than rain in DC with the temp not getting much above 32-33.

 

I'm actually kind of excited for this storm.  Give me a few hours of steady/heavy snow during the day tomorrow then whatever happens is gravy.  Dry slot would be ideal so maybe the ground is still white when it gets cold after the storm.  This is a nice way to pad stats if we can do 1-3 or 2-4 on the WAA.  

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Man, glad DC folks were out of the game on like Sunday. I still think I-81 works out the best but not even sure about all of those MECS type amounts. 

What do you think about ice?  Even though the 3k shows it My thought is it takes a solid below 30F to have significant icing.  28F even.  

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3 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

I’m starting to think places above 3,000 feet near Snowshoe, WV could even see a mix at some point. Still expecting 12”+ in and around Snowshoe though.

You’ll mix down there for a bit I think.  As of now I’m all snow but wouldn’t be surprised to see some sleet mixing in depending on trends.

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

What do you think about ice?  Even though the 3k shows it My thought is it takes a solid below 30F to have significant icing.  28F even.  

This won't be a freezing rain event, those don't really happen anymore. It's either snow or thick rain

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