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December 16/17 Winter Event


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Interestingly, the 06z EPS seems to be a bit more uncertain than the 00z. Bit more strung out in terms of member lows from NW to SE at hour 72. Only potential positive I can see to hang onto. May still have time and "room" amongst that uncertainty in the ensemble for a slight shift in that rain/snow line, but the densest clusters and continuing trend are disappointing.

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5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You will get the lollis to 10-12 up there. No mixing. Just lack of precip. I said a few days ago these monster rate events often seem to fizzle and those with good temps waste hours getting spitting snow while those getting yellow-banded are at 35 degrees.

yeah temps dont look like a problem here, unless that low comes inland more. like you said, the precip amount itself. i will take whatever falls of course. snow is snow.

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3 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said:

CMC running a tight line right down I-95.  Temps in the cities are just below freezing with heavy precip.  Could be a sleet bomb in the making.

Soundings are showing more sleet than rain in the cities. CAA could be enough to at least hold off rain for some time.

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Just a tad too much emotion if i'm being honest but I'm sure you have a handle on this thing at this point

I leave emotion out of the forecast. I’m helping emergency managers make decisions so must remove emotion and put analysis and facts on the table.no emotion in my post, just facts.

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2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

I leave emotion out of the forecast. I’m helping emergency managers make decisions so must remove emotion and put analysis and facts on the table.no emotion in my post, just facts.

Well then I guess my emotion detector is off. Good luck with your forecast and stay safe

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38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How about we wait before you bless us with lessons. And CAD doesn’t usually apply in situations where lows run the Piedmont 

Lot of hot takes here today.  Got accused of "cliff diving" or whatever because I'm a lifelong residents of these here parts, and I've seen this movie a million times and I know how it works out.   People know I don't just give up easily...shit sometimes I'm the last man standing when everyone bails.  But this one doesn't feel right...I'm talking for us 95/DC folks.   For you...kick back, open up a can of your favorite brew and get ready for the show.    

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Lot of hot takes here today.  Got accused of "cliff diving" or whatever because I'm a lifelong residents of these here parts, and I've seen this movie a million times and I know how it works out.   People know I don't just give up easily...shit sometimes I'm the last man standing when everyone bails.  But this one doesn't feel right...I'm talking for us 95/DC folks.   For you...kick back, open up a can of your favorite brew and get ready for the show.    

I still think we at least cover the ground and get a fair amount of sleet. 

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Lot of hot takes here today.  Got accused of "cliff diving" or whatever because I'm a lifelong residents of these here parts, and I've seen this movie a million times and I know how it works out.   People know I don't just give up easily...shit sometimes I'm the last man standing when everyone bails.  But this one doesn't feel right...I'm talking for us 95/DC folks.   For you...kick back, open up a can of your favorite brew and get ready for the show.    

Don't think anyone could've said it better than this. For the past few days, even when the GFS and even the Euro were showing decent outputs, we were still walking between raindrops. No 100% consensus, still NW solutions, and plenty of time for the typical NW jog. It's also just a product of the time of year, we're still a month and change away from prime snow climo. Just gotta pack up and move on, hopefully this pattern delivers for the people who have been snow droughted the most (just looking forward, the EPS has a bundle of lows centered around Indiana on Christmas day :pepsi:)

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43 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I mentioned it at 18z yesterday. I was told the models still had enough precip to support December 2009 totals across the land. LOL

The GFS is by far the lowest. It will adjust. Every other model has a qpf max of 2”+. There will be 20” totals from this storm it just won’t be over us.  The Max is likely up in PA. That’s our problem...not qpf. 

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We never want to be on the southern edge of the heavy snow 4-5 days out.  Always better to pull for the north trend.  But never felt confident about this one. 

Bright side is even the local ski areas should do pretty well so maybe can be open for business in time for X-mas!  

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20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Lot of hot takes here today.  Got accused of "cliff diving" or whatever because I'm a lifelong residents of these here parts, and I've seen this movie a million times and I know how it works out.   People know I don't just give up easily...shit sometimes I'm the last man standing when everyone bails.  But this one doesn't feel right...I'm talking for us 95/DC folks.   For you...kick back, open up a can of your favorite brew and get ready for the show.    

Well said. I am 57 and lived here my entire life loving snow. Can’t tell you how many times back in the mid 70s the famous “Heavy Snow Warning” was issued for 4-6 inches. After no snow I would get the update. How?  Calling 936-1212. Then would be crushed to hear the  revised forecast of a Travelers Advisory for 1-3. And reality would end up being 0. Many years later the drill might be different but the results frequently the same. 

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