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December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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3 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said:

The usual caveats with a NAM at 57, but it is slightly colder at the surface in the cities this run.  Low is still in the same general area as last few runs.

the coastal is developing in a good spot on the nam, but it's moving due north whereas the gfs is off the coast.  assuming the off the coast idea is correct, i would think the nam adjusts further se.

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3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

3k tracks the low west of Norfolk too.

Problem is that the 850 low runs north of DC.

There is a realistic potential that areas inside the DC Beltway get non-accumulating snow on the front end and miss the deformation on the back end.  Trace is absolutely in play.

Looking forward to your obs, seriously. They always make me feel glad about where I live. LOL

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Just now, IronTy said:

This storm has bust written all over it. Heck I probably won't even get an inch of rain.  Wood frogs were calling yesterday at my house, they think it's March already. 

Sorry IronTy -- I grew up a few miles south of Dunkirk and know all about southern MD heartbreak.  Once my job locked in DC I started shopping for a NW area.  My family is still all there and they have fun with me when southern MD gets a big hit that I miss.

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5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

badee4087a14998ee5f1d85be522c804.jpg

Filled out a couple more squares. Might’ve missed an Eskimo Joe “meh.”

 

Wait...when was there a reference to the DGEX for this event???  Don't recall that offhand...fortunately!!

Oh, and by the way, I think the NAM is just where we want it at this range, it's showing a slight improvement! :D

 

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

she doesn't live in a warm part of the subforum, she's out west in WVA. Which was her point. Many forget that we have members who live in WVA

Or who live at higher elevations in western VA, like me.  I agree with her that I am not ready to give up on this storm when the GFS and Euro still paste me with 13"+. 

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I am legit wondering about that and the whole 50/50 thing...now does the 50/50 influence track too? Or just temperatures?

Nothing with this storm is set in stone.  This is a factor, but like others have noted there are lots of factors coming together.  Well maybe the MOCO death band is set in stone lol

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A lot of wishcasting going on in here. If the NAM showed a mauling for the area you would all accept it, but because it is not, it’s out of its wheel house and should be tossed. No, it should not be tossed! It is giving you hints as to the evolution of the pattern. 
 

For one, the airmass regardless of the High setup is marginal at best! It is a CAD but not impressive and not Insitu. The low track is not ideal. This has been screaming fast changeover for the cities for days and even the immediate suburbs will mix or changeover. This is an I-81 to 68, 15 from northern Loudoun to the PA border, north of I-70 heavy snow event. Rest of us from west to east mix and even go to rain closer in toward Fairfax. Writing has been on the wall for three days. 

 

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