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December 16/17 Winter Event


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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

If anyone is interested, I wrote a book earlier this evening on my thoughts. Feel free to critique. Thanks!

great writeup as usual, just need to tweak in the end that the deform band will make it east to my area ;) 

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

If anyone is interested, I wrote a book earlier this evening on my thoughts. Feel free to critique. Thanks!

Hey bud, love your posts. I went to Cal U met program. I remember you posting back in the mid 2000s lol... I’m going to be chasing this storm out of philly. I wanna get a few spots picked out. Once you get up into PA you think I should head up NE towards that corner of the state or more westward?

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Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

Hey bud, love your posts. I went to Cal U met program. I remember you posting back in the mid 2000s lol... I’m going to be chasing this storm out of philly. I wanna get a few spots picked out. Once you get up into PA you think I should head up NE towards that corner of the state or more westward?

You mean mid 2010's? Mid 2000's I was in HS still being a weenie and learning everything while I stalked Accuweather Forums lol. If I had to pick a spot, right now in PA, I'd head to York county in the hills between HBG and THV. There's routes over to I-81 area too. Someone there will clean up

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Ha! I kid, of course. Should be a good event up here, even if some warm air sneaks in. Going to enjoy whatever I get. 

It's gonna be a fun storm to watch. Wish I was back home for it, but I'll get mine in due time. I'm working on getting back to the homeland in time. I just need to convince someone gullible enough at Sterling to accept me :lol:

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

You mean mid 2010's? Mid 2000's I was in HS still being a weenie and learning everything while I stalked Accuweather Forums lol. If I had to pick a spot, right now in PA, I'd head to York county in the hills between HBG and THV. There's routes over to I-81 area too. Someone there will clean up

Haha maybe. The years kind of blend together. It might have been another Millville username who knows. Thanks man. I personally think center city philly ends up with around 5-6” NE 6-8”. Excited for a semi local chase though!

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3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

You mean mid 2010's? Mid 2000's I was in HS still being a weenie and learning everything while I stalked Accuweather Forums lol. If I had to pick a spot, right now in PA, I'd head to York county in the hills between HBG and THV. There's routes over to I-81 area too. Someone there will clean up

Heading home to dover, pa (from upstate NY). That looks to be a good spot for snow-chasing I think!

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

6Z GEFS mean low locations does not support NAM.

D195EA6F-F4E6-41BA-8443-9D98427E3BD9.png

I know it's December, but how is there is a fresh cold air mass with a fairly strong high and those low locations and a concern of mix or rain still and surface temps above freezing? Those low locations are perfect.

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41 minutes ago, yoda said:

They are 6 hour time period maps... not total event snowfall maps

I understand that, Yoda.  The first 6 is 1-2", the next 12 hours per THAT map is 1" or less. That is the shading I am in.  Please understand I know my own damn climo

My temps will be above freezing for most of the event. I'm not piling up snow during the daytime under THAT forecast.  

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, H2O said:
That says 1-2" for me.  Tops.  Oh well.  Time to look for the next one

Hm says January will be fun

Great.  Can't wait for you to bitch about a model run that takes you from 16" to 12" while I can't even get 4. 

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1 minute ago, chris21 said:

Those are six hour snow amounts. Would be a total of 3-6 inches for you.

Sigh.  Ok.  So for all that don't know where I live I am just under the bottom of the beltway in VA about 6 pixels from the Potomac river.  I am initially in the 1-2" 6hr panel.  Then from that point on its the very first shading which is 0-1"  

So when that first 1-2" falls I will flip to sleet and rain.  My storm total on the ground won't be 3-6".  

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4 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Wow,  to the tight Northern Delaware gradient. Dover to Greenville Delaware night and day!   0 to 12 inch over ridiculous short distance.  

Sweating it here. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-dc-snow_24hr_kuchera-8217200.png

 

 

That gradient is absolutely brutal. Gives me 1". This had better not be a sign of how this winter season will go.

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