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December 16/17 Winter Event


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Just now, CAPE said:

I would feel pretty good if i was 20 miles west of the fall line. Pretty much a can't miss right? #faithinthegefs

What if, hypothetically speaking, you were like 3-5 miles from the fall line and, hypothetically, at like 375’ elevation? 

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Something tells me this is gonna trend colder over the next 48 hours of runs...but maybe it's just weenieism, lol Bur I do put a little stock in the postively familiar scenario of CAD being underdone on the modeling.

cad being underdone has become my favorite weenieism the last couple seasons! don’t forget a low couldn’t possibly tuck so close with CAD that’s modeled :lol:

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

CAD being underdone is the one weenie rule that actually works for us most of the time. But keep in mind that’s for surface temps most, not warm layers aloft.

It works well for inland areas, and even here with a  true Arctic air mass and a good storm track. Pretty ordinary cold and tucked in low is a problem here in mid Dec. Still hoping for the best, but not expecting much of anything at this point lol. See what the models have 24 hours from now.

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12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I would feel pretty good if i was 20 miles west of the fall line. Pretty much a can't miss right? #faithinthegefs

Outside of the Jan 2016 event, you have to go back to the Feb 2014 Miller A since we last saw a true climo gradient NW-SE. I got around 22" here in northern AA County with the Jan 2016 storm, while areas west of the fall line got 36+. In the Feb 2014 event, I recorded 7" on the front end, 4-5" with the deformation the next day, with rain/drizzle/dry slot in between. Areas west were well over a foot. 

I'm not expecting much IMBY on the front end -- I'm definitely more intrigued about the deform potential early Thursday. How far south will that CCB band extend, what will the rates be, and how progressive will it be lifting out are the big questions.

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It works well for inland areas, and even here with a  true Arctic air mass and a good storm track. Pretty ordinary cold and tucked in low is a problem here in mid Dec. Still hoping for the best, but not expecting much of anything at this point lol. See what the models have 24 hours from now.

The New England piece of the airmass is definitely arctic.  Dewpoints below 0F is a classic sign of that.  For us, we have dews in the teens.  That's a respectable polar airmass, but nothing super special. 

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Just now, jaydreb said:

This may be a dumb question, but how exactly do we definte the fall line?  In VA, would it be Rt. 15?  Rt. 28?  Great Falls?

I-95 is about the fall line. It is a bit west of that. You can wiki it. Great falls is a result of the falls, but it used to be a bit east of that

 

 

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4 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

This may be a dumb question, but how exactly do we define the fall line here?  In VA, would it be Rt. 15?  Rt. 28?  Great Falls?

Its where the elevation changes from nominally 100 feet, to 400+ in a relatively short distance. It runs just west of I-95 from DC to Baltimore to NE MD, so easy to identify. It is marked by rapids and waterfalls, so Great Falls may be along the Fall line or just west.

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