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Ice Time? Dec. 16ish Possible CAD Event


Tar Heel Snow
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51 minutes ago, griteater said:

I miss a good ice storm from the 80's.  You'd go to school with a forecast of rain and 38, and you'd get sent home mid-morning with rain and 28.  Models and forecasters didn't have a dam clue on how to handle cold air damming.

I remember those days, too, Grit.  The 1980s were a great decade for winter weather for those that lived in the shadow of the Apps.  (I was in Lenoir then.)

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Low forming off Jacksonville, FL.  A few more hours of clear skies for I-40 and north.  As previously mentioned, the time of day aspect with this one is about as good as it gets with precip moving in overnight into early morning.
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Grit, do you believe the CAD hangs on longer than whats being modeled?

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30 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Grit, do you believe the CAD hangs on longer than whats being modeled?

I think a combo of the hi-res NAM and GFS here looks reasonable.  I believe the RDPS will be a little too cold.  The sneaky factor here will be the prime setup of maximizing the coldest part of the day for when the precip gets going.

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41 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@griteater what’s your take on HRRR? Does it usually run too cold? Latest run looks much colder with several hours of some moderate snow up this way based on this run vs last using cod website. 

I think it's possible you see a little snow, yes...then sleet, then frz rain.  I've never been a big fan of the HRRR.  It's usually a furnace toward the latter part of its run.  And here on this loop, it just doesn't look realistic with this thin transition from snow to rain in a CAD setup.  It just tends to be inaccurate toward the end of its run, but it only goes out to 18 hours....so, that doesn't give you much lead time for it to be of much use in winter.  Guess it is meant to be used in nowcast time...but hey, I can just look at the radar then.  Good luck up there.

DKv9IaC.gif

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18 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

The 18z Euro wants to develop are narrow band of dynamic cooling aloft over the Piedmont Wednesday afternoon. Actually supports a brief period of snow. What is going on??
.

The HRRR is picking up on this is well... Could be interesting, with some pretty wild dynamics. Short lived window though, just before going into a dry slot

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17 minutes ago, griteater said:

I think it's possible you see a little snow, yes...then sleet, then frz rain.  I've never been a big fan of the HRRR.  It's usually a furnace toward the latter part of its run.  And here on this loop, it just doesn't look realistic with this thin transition from snow to rain in a CAD setup.  It just tends to be inaccurate toward the end of its run, but it only goes out to 18 hours....so, that doesn't give you much lead time for it to be of much use in winter.  Guess it is meant to be used in nowcast time...but hey, I can just look at the radar then.  Good luck up there.

DKv9IaC.gif

Appreciate your insight on everything. 

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