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Active mid December with multiple event potential


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15 minutes ago, Greg said:

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I agree, Harvey seems to get it. Not too high, not too low just about right with a chance of movement north or south depending on future runs. Good job Harvey.

I’m sorry this is worthy of the trash. There’s going to be a really sharp gradient along I90 ish. It’s going to be a great storm south of there. More of a “feast or famine...” 

The global guidance continues to flag significant dry air/subsidence, to the north of I90. That’s why snowfall total maps are not jiving well with the apparent precip shield to the north. To me, that’s a giant red flag that what will we be seeing is a lot of radar echoes with little/nothing reaching the ground. 
 

That 4-8, 2-6 area is going to bust very high, unless there are big changes between now and go time.

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’m sorry this is worthy of the trash. There’s going to be a really sharp gradient along I90 ish. It’s going to be a great storm south of there. More of a “feast or famine...” 

The global guidance continues to flag significant dry air, to the north of I90. That’s why snowfall total maps are not jiving well with the apparent precip shield to the north. To me, that’s a giant red flag that what will we be seeing is a lot of radar echoes with little/nothing reaching the ground. 
 

That 4-8, 2-6 area is going to bust very high, unless there are big changes between now and go time.

Let’s see....you vs one of the most esteemed Mets I the country who has been forecasting this area >40 years who you called trash (forecast).   Sorry Pope-you lose.

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This whole thing is almost like a warm frontal wave.. .

The QPF "walling" front load look is classic for isentropic burst, and then the CCB is weak sauce, ...followed by storm evac with almost nill backside CAA ... Thicknesses are higher behind the system than at onset - but ...still low enough that should the lagging trough and wind maxima passing underneath need-require easterly anomalies .... blah blah ongoing under-the-radar grits and flurries perhaps...

 

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This analog was circulating yesterday. Reality will look something much more like this.

Where the gradient really sets up is difficult to know, but my best guess is right around I-90.

Shift this roughly 50 miles north...

Harvey has me in 2-6”. 

I’ll take pics of my overcast.

 

149D16C6-9275-473B-8B14-8EE282EFCC78.png

That map is not accurate for Cape Cod, Harwich got 15.5"

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14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Let’s see....you vs one of the most esteemed Mets I the country who has been forecasting this area >40 years who you called trash (forecast).   Sorry Pope-you lose.

 

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Wishcast away my friend.

 

Lets behonest, Harvey could easily be wrong, but it's a first guess map. This is the same as those over analyzing Ray's first map. And final point... Yes Mr pope... Harvey always seems to pull every forecast so it's tough to go against him. Hardly wishcast

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1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

 

Lets behonest, Harvey could easily be wrong, but it's a first guess map. This is the same as those over analyzing Ray's first map. And final point... Yes Mr pope... Harvey always seems to pull every forecast so it's tough to go against him. Hardly wishcast

You’re from Southie- be careful what you say to Papi!

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