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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah the Ukie amounts aren't happening. Not with a dampening s/w and occluded low.

FIRST CALL

8-14” for most of MA, CT, and RI. Spot 14”+. 

4-8” S VT, S NH and outer Cape to the Canal. 

2-4” C VT, C NH and far southern coastal ME and outer Cape. 

C-2” MV and ACK.

Cirrus for NNE. 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Did you see the mid levels? If it delays the dampening of the SW, then it makes sense. Probably wrong, but not nonsense.

I did. I just don't like how it flattens out as it moves overhead. It may not mean much as the low is already matured and won't really weaken...but I don't see how it produces that much QPF in a larger area. JMHO. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Labeling a run as BS without looking at what it is doing is silly. The GFS and UK both make sense due to respective handling of the SW evolution, but are both likely wrong.

Correct.  Did you read what I said prior to posting the images.  If timing is slowed, I see no reason it's not a viable solution.  GFS on the other.

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8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Right which is why I laugh.  We had no school for 2 days/unheard of back then.  NYC schools closed for the first time since the 26 inches of 12/26/47

December 12, 1960

'Twas the night before deer season, with snow in the woods,
Still snowing at sunrise as we went for the goods.

My dad and best friend and I headed out that day,
with a foot and a half powder to impede our way.

My friend and I slogged thru the hills in the snow,
While my dad leaned upon a nice oak down below.

My friend and I saw tracks, but not a thing more,
While my dad saw the buck and one shot made the score.

My friend and I walked back to admire the deer,
And I got to field dress it,  as dad made it clear.

I wondered why he couldn't do it, not me,
When I finally shot one (8 yr later, in PA), his training I could see.

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20 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

FIRST CALL

8-14” for most of MA, CT, and RI. Spot 14”+. 

4-8” S VT, S NH and outer Cape to the Canal. 

2-4” C VT, C NH and far southern coastal ME and outer Cape. 

C-2” MV and ACK.

Cirrus for NNE. 

Not bad at all at this juncture.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Correct.  Did you read what I said prior to posting the images.  If timing is slowed, I see no reason it's not a viable solution.  GFS on the other.

Yea, if we alter the timescale as far as how the SW interacts with the block, then new ballgame. I was more hopeful for this through the weekend, but getting late now.

We need to see the EURO do that in the next 30 minutes to realistically consider it.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My guess is it won't change much....people always a pick a cycle as this "come to jesus suite" during which all guidance undergoes an epiphany, but it seems pretty locked in.

That makes sense. If the EC spits out a solution more like the UKMET, I'd be pretty excited however.

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35 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Tracking is so exhausting LOL I fully admit that I am a weather weenie at 49 years old. I've Loved tracking the weather my entire life. Even had a stint in college for meteorology, ending up in Design ( which I love ). With that said, even if we see 6 to 12 in I'll be super happy. Plus, we still have January February March and even April.. At least it's not the last few years for here in Southern New England

Mm. Ya know ... people who engage in this distraction are really after the cinema the weather charts offer; and there is a story and thematic arc there, just like any story that gets told… And it takes a good deal of one’s imagination hence “design“ to turn those pages.
 

In a sense I think most of the people that are hobbyists and Meteorologists .. are all  like designers – or at least carry that trait in common…

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