Active mid December with multiple event potential

[PowderBeard]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I looked at hr 60 on 12k and 3K nam and don't see any appreciable difference.

Yea it catches up in the Chesapeake Bay area around 60.

[Bostonseminole]

can't figure out how to multi-quote and multiple pages, but thanks for the replies, I gather we will do better than 10:1 ..  cheers!! getting pumped!

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, It's Always Sunny said:

@CoastalWx couldn't the NAM have inflated totals due to non-hydrostatic approximation?

NAM goes nuts for a variety of reasons..lol. I do think That area near UNV on N and E get smoked due to the mid levels closing off and going to town. That is jack zone IMO.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Nor am I, but I gather temperatures between -12 to -18C in the DGZ with sufficient lift is most important for ratios. Surface temps don't make that much of a contribution.

Looks like the range the Nam has it in looking at a sounding up here @hr69

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

can't figure out how to multi-quote and multiple pages, but thanks for the replies, I gather we will do better than 10:1 ..  cheers!! getting pumped!

Hit the plus sign next to quote on how many you want to quote,, Then click in the box in the lower right to add you text.

 

 

[Spanks45]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes. I’ve learned that the hard way but I still suck at analyzing soundings. I’d rather keep this at 10:1 for now. 

As it stands...8-12" with spots that see 12-16" around our region, we can adjust this evening or tomorrow morning based on new data

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

The combination of the waning dynamics and OES component implies subsidence city for the 495 belt....not feeling this one out my way.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Pretty quick storm on the NAM... 12 hours or so for my area

[Henry's Weather]

So if I'm understanding correctly, we want Monday to phase as late as possible to increase wave spacing between today's event and Thursdays, so heights can rise.

[dryslot]

9-12hr on these is pretty typical.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

9-12hr on these is pretty typical.

So it’s not 24-30 hrs..?  

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The combination of the waning dynamics and OES component implies subsidence city for the 495 belt....not feeling this one out my way.

On then NAM those heavier amounts is that OES CJ  around boston NE or you think further south? if yes I might be smoking exhaust

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, dryslot said:

9-12hr on these is pretty typical.

Agreed.  Hard to get a foot unless it really dumps

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

So it’s not 24-30 hrs..?  

"Days and days...and days"
 

[PWMan]

Would love to lock in the NAM - nice advisory/warning event for most on the forum. No jackpot fetish here; my main hope is to get the grass covered.

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

So it’s not 24-30 hrs..?  

till Friday AM?

[ineedsnow]

Kuchera

[WinterWolf]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

"Days and days...and days"
 

 

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

till Friday AM?

Ya..that’s what we were told right? 

[PowderBeard]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

So it’s not 24-30 hrs..?  

This should be up there with "making its own cold."

[NorEastermass128]

Thinking this turns into a region wide 8-14” storm for most in CNE and SNE. KU amounts unlikely since this is hauling. 

[WinterWolf]

12-18 looks reasonable from what I’m seeing currently for most of CT.  That’s a big storm. Hope it verifies. 

[Southshorewx]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Pretty quick storm on the NAM... 12 hours or so for my area

72 hr storm at DITs house. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Agreed.  Hard to get a foot unless it really dumps

1"/hr rates would be close, You would need a period of higher rates in that window definitely for 12"+.

[Mothman]

31 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

This has me in the jackpot! Lock it!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

12-18 looks reasonable from what I’m seeing currently for most of CT.  That’s a big storm. Hope it verifies. 

My guess is 10-16 SW areas 7-12 otherwise . Seems more realistic as this Maxes SW of SNE and  is weakening on approach 

That is a very solid storm for most in SNE , w S Shore just Inland Having best shot of 10-12 for eastern areas

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

On then NAM those heavier amounts is that OES CJ  around boston NE or you think further south? if yes I might be smoking exhaust

Either or....its usually more on the south shore, but the n shore can get it through inside of rt 128 if the wind is right. Probably more of an issue for me than you.

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

1"/hr rates would be close, You would need a period of higher rates in that window definitely for 12"+.

Yeah I think 8-12 would cover many areas, maybe a narrow area getting it more where the mesoscale fronto is.  I still think those north of pike may get into decent fronto. Even you Ray.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My guess is 10-16 SW areas 7-12 otherwise . Seems more realistic as this Maxes SW of SNE and  is weakening on approach 

Fair enough.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Agreed. The good news is that the second wave packet has yet to be sampled completely yet and it's been subtle changes in its location that have made some big differences.

 

Yup!  - boom

I can see you and et al were on to this facet overnight so no need to get into large vs smaller scale destructive interference sermons, ... but as I was cursory evaluating the guidance, overnight ... ..As far as this social media/public depot goes...there has been a tendency to ignore and/or not consider either way, exactly "why" the GFS was doing what it has been ...In lieu of chasing turns of phrase that protect the heavier snow chances and/or chastising it for being less entertaining - Lol...

There was a nuanced ...I wouldn't call it 'nod' so much as a 'hm...' behind pursed lips look over at the GFS by the other guidance...  That ICON ( which I still am uneasy and lack personal confidence in using due to ( lack of experience + it's C- handling on the last ...)/2   ) , really tried pretty hard to show the wave damping that the GFS has been insisting, as being more neggie interfering.. In fact, both runs now dampen our beloved S/W spacing to nothing S of Maritimes - someone post yesterday some excerpt taking from somewhere else .. how this was a scenario where the whole structure was "...increasing in strength so that is why the GFS was wrong" ...uh no.. Even the Euro was normalizing that wave down leaving...I think there's a lot of invention of plausibility and that we suffer fake news in here just that same ... Lol again...

Anyway, all guidance at this point have a goodly mass of isohypses impinging/bullying into the backside, back through the mid lat's of Apallachia ... into Thursday and even Friday.

You know...if that gets a bit more ( and several GEFs members are already flagging this ...), we end up with some kind of 800 to 700 mb easterly jet that stays sort of in position post this thing's eject seaward.  Even if weak sauce, it's doing so in a saturated or near saturable column... Could be good for a band or two or broken patches of on-going Currier&Ives holiday parade detritus ... 

I disagree with the Euro and GGEM that the pattern goes banal and uninspired afterword.  It seems the model battle is really that these two higher resolution Global numerical solutions are consummately attempting to offset the sped up Hemisphere anywhere beyond 4 days... I think the 4-D variable system/smoothing is a brilliant concept but it's outmoded in a hurried environment that is proving even chanllenging to the teleconnector statistics - the wave spacing is adaptive to the faster flows and it's sort of taking relative EPO and NAO and PNA mode derivatives ...and allowing wrong weather to happen relative to each... I'm definitely seeing some weirdness in the tele signal --> verification tendencies as not behaving quite as tight and cuddly as decades ago... One reason for that is that the faster flow doesn't appear to allow, or situate patterns for long enough - the residences are moving on... and, lengthening R-waves cause them to "split" which also disrupts the mass continuity ...leading to unusual statistics...  But I'm pretty sure you've stopped reading this by now so ...sorry -.. I only  mention it because this thread technically did mention something could be in play late next weekend -

Anyway, for those that are still reading, the short is that the GFS is probably not as off as it was meme'd to be over the last 30 hours since that one juggernaut solution the other day - when attitudes toward it were "surprisingly better" - gee...   I suspect the compromise is in order, until this immediate 12z run ...18z, and 00z are absorbed into the processing - there is still wind momentum in the mid troposphere feeding off the Pacific ...so just because the trough isohypsotic nadir is nearing Vegas, it's still getting fire hosed into the backside...and probably safest course of least embarrassment regret until more of that is actually sampled...   Hell, for all we know, ...the 12z runs suddenly help enthusiast - ... I almost/also wonder if the wave mechanics causing that sag Thu/Fri lag ...might also be over assimilated?  In same vein ...it could prove under assimilated... and then we got a problem...

[ineedsnow]

Icon will be fun I think