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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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53 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Plenty of changes from now to then, but at present my old NNJ haunts get 18" while we get a dusting here and the snow-loving grandkids (who only saw white ground last winter when they visited us for Thanksgiving) get a couple inches of slop and RA+.

Shaping up to be pure torture. GYX posted yesterday that there have only been 2 Christmases since 2002 with more than a dusting on the ground at PWM, and that trend seems likely to continue. Anyway, enjoy it SNE!

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2 minutes ago, SnowEMass said:

A hybrid can work

 

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Definitely more A, baby comes right on up the coast

Yeah because if I recall a couple days ago it was looking more B like but now it appears to dip more into that Gulf moisture. Probably one of the reasons why QPF has gone up.

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4 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Is it just me or is the Dec 16/17 storm beginning to look more Miller A-esque? Almost a Miller A/B hybrid kind of.

No it definitely looks more miller A than a couple days ago. 

That said, it could still go more hybrid f we get some NW ticks as it would result in a stronger primary trying to go into OH valley before the coastal becomes fully dominant. 

We’ll just have to wait and see. Some of the NW solutions are kind of like that. 

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4 minutes ago, PWMan said:

Shaping up to be pure torture. GYX posted yesterday that there have only been 2 Christmases since 2002 with more than a dusting on the ground at PWM, and that trend seems likely to continue. Anyway, enjoy it SNE!

That stat can’t be right for snow depth. Do they mean snowfall on Christmas Day itself? (2012 and 2017?)

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s a great pattern for it. I’m not ready to go big but I do think at this point I think 6” is a minimum for CT. We’d really have to screw this up to avoid a warning level event. 

Not saying close the shades, but it’s a pretty good piece of guidance brother. 

Yeah Will, but they are not high resolution, not enough to rely on with the details!

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Mid Dec is still early for the ocean towns. If we take like a 70/30 eps/gefs blend you’re in good shape for warning snows. Hope you get buried.

Oh I do too, but then the caveat is, that if the warm oceans allow for a change to rain, they also allow for higher moisture content and release over the region.  A higher moisture source if the air mass is arctic and deep enough to offset the surface warmth from the upper-40 F water temps!

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I may have the good looks, but I don’t have the memory or meteorological expertise of Will :P 

Stark departure from the garbage of the last few years. Just hoping we can maximize this one. 

I mean, obviously we need a strong arctic high in place over Maine or Quebec to keep the cold arctic air mass in place, locked in and thrown towards the coast!

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That stat can’t be right for snow depth. Do they mean snowfall on Christmas Day itself? (2012 and 2017?)

Sorry - the post was ambiguously worded but I should’ve done my own fact-checking. Funny how memory works, as it seemed plausible based on my personal experience.  I also realize that my area is still in the game for some action next week, even if we don’t jackpot.

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24 minutes ago, PWMan said:

Shaping up to be pure torture. GYX posted yesterday that there have only been 2 Christmases since 2002 with more than a dusting on the ground at PWM, and that trend seems likely to continue. Anyway, enjoy it SNE!

I think GYX should look again.  I found four 12/25s with 6"+ (07, 08, 13, 17) and 4 others with 1-4", though that 4" year (2005) had zero by 12/26 as the Grinch stole it.  I assume that PWM measures depth at noon, or why 2002 shows zero for 12/25 - the 16" dump started early PM.  That also explains why the 12/25 storm (5") doesn't affect depth until the 26th.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I may have the good looks, but I don’t have the memory or meteorological expertise of Will :P 

Stark departure from the garbage of the last few years. Just hoping we can maximize this one. 

I pray the panic room has “Business Interrupt ” insurance. Hopefully government funding will be provided to keep, Forky, S19 and other staff members employed during the “Its really gonna snow” crises.  As always .....

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The block is a huge player. Otherwise it would be congrats Syracuse to Stowe. Still a little leary it could weaken as we get closer. 

The blocking is why confidence is high at D5. Still don’t wanna spike footballs yet but this is a lot different than hoping for thread the needle setups. 

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