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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020


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Just now, David-LI said:

If the media hype was enough that I can get a day off from work , stay home enjoying a hot chocolate and building a snowman with the kids, then I’ll take my 2-4 inches if it comes to that. 

You're not wrong. A snow day would be much appreciated, even if there ends up not being any snow IMBY (not that snow days truly exist with virtual teaching being an option now), still, one day not having to be around Covid kids is a bonus.

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5 minutes ago, David-LI said:

If the media hype was enough that I can get a day off from work , stay home enjoying a hot chocolate and building a snowman with the kids, then I’ll take my 2-4 inches if it comes to that. 

Anything that gives us some enjoyment these days is welcome....but I'm retired now and can sit back and watch.

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28 minutes ago, billgwx said:

Want to see other guidance as amped/warm as the 12Z NAM cycles before jumping on it. Latest parallel GFS looked similar at H5 but was cold...oh wait the GFS is often too cold aloft. Anyway, the NAM amplification yesterday didn't appear to be due to convective feedback. But the model's not consistent run-to-run, 12Z'ers amped/warm and the other cycles colder. All that said, I didn't entirely discount the warmer idea yesterday and threw in some south shore/east end mixing for Long Island.

It looks like one of the features on the v16 is a fix for the cold bias. Do you know if it’s still scheduled to go operational in February?

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

3F516E8A-0DB4-462C-85AB-9901DD4BD3A8.thumb.png.7ca0c00e530945d2f8ff5b8a02af9fd8.png

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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The dry slot magnified.

rgem_mslp_pcpn_neus_43.png

Wow jeezus you can get killed in some countries for making that hand gesture.

 

Mixing issues aside, the dry slot is hard to nail down but the models have been honing in on it and so far it doesn’t look great for the metro area.

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

snku_acc.us_ne.png

Kuchera ratio RGEM is still showing a pretty good snowstorm before the changeover to sleet. Not the blockbuster snowstorm, but I'd still be happy with a good 8 inches of snow. Hopefully this is about as warm as the solutions will get, rather than continuing to fall apart at the last minute.

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Just now, romba said:

Wow jeezus you can get killed in some countries for making that hand gesture.

 

Mixing issues aside, the dry slot is hard to nail down but the models have been honing in on it and so far it doesn’t look great for the metro area.

That dry slot is literally giving us the finger :lol:

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Remember when people said this couldn't happen. 

It's almost not worth it to bank on anything too many days before a storm. Outcomes that change a lot from computer prognostications are common. Predictive science is taking a beating in recent years in more than one field. 

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8 minutes ago, sferic said:

Is the Kuchera method tied in to higher snow ratios?

If not, what is its purpose and is it ever right?

Higher and lower. It doesn't go with the standard 10:1 and accounts for higher or lower based on temps and other conditions. So in this case it would show lower snow amounts and not count sleet in snow totals. Right now Kuchera NAM and RGEM are still giving my area (north-central NJ) about 8 inches of snow. Really hoping it won't continue to trend worse. Will be interesting to see if GFS and EURO still show the bigger snow solutions. Hopefully NAM and RGEM are a little too amped.

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Wow....everyone needs to relax for a minute. This is ALL about the placement of the 850mb low. That’s it!  That’s what’s causing the difference in the models. They’re simple trying to resolve that placement. Take a look at that precip shield on the NAM with the moisture plume coming out of the gulf about 12 hours before the storm gets to us!  The cold air is in place, the block is in a good place. This is a monster storm for mid December. Unfortunately, it’s a nowcast situation as we watch the development. However, in my opinion this is an all snow event from PHI/NYC north and a mostly rain event for SNJ and the coast. The question is what happens in between?  Where does that mixing line set up? 

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