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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020


wdrag
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Just to answer a question that originated 2 hrs ago:  Sounding can be 0 or below but if the saturated layer doesn't have any -8C  above 2 or 3000 feet, ,hard to get snow in that sounding. In other words, we need ice nuclei or salt nuclei.  Usually -8C is the theoretical warmest limit to produce snow via ice nuclei.  

Here's some depressing guidance for NYC... I hope the probabilistic is too low for 6,12,18.  Also add probabilistic chance for .01 freezing rain. The 12z/ 16 HPC HREF you will like but my guess it's 3" too high in NJ/LI...just my guess. That last HPC HREF graphic is for 7P tonight to 7P tomorrow...has no snow prior to 7P. 

This is it for me for a bunch of hours.

Screen Shot 2020-12-16 at 5.13.32 PM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-12-16_at_5_14.29_PM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-12-16_at_5_16.58_PM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-12-16_at_5_18.30_PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-12-16 at 6.08.34 PM.png

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1.5" mod snow. Wind marginal, but gusty. SPC mesoscale analysis is interesting. A lot of stuff pointing to east solution. 2 hour pressure change near kitty hawk with 850-700 frontogenesis north of the pressure change south and east of ACK. 

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