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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020


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2 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

For what it's worth, SREF mean has trended upwards for LGA over the last 4 runs: 6.68", 7.95", 8.00", and now 9.56"

Didnt know they still existed. Those are great for storms that are well east if you still want to find a model that will show Snow. Guess they can be used for trends as they are a blend of the short term models that run with the Nam

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3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Didnt know they still existed. Those are great for storms that are well east if you still want to find a model that will show Snow. Guess they can be used for trends as they are a blend of the short term models that run with the Nam

They tend to be over amped further out and more accurate closer in. 

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2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Rare post, but Thanksgiving 1993 Dallas, Leon Lett fumble game in Dallas, that looked like snow on TV but was 90% sleet, and a lot of thunder and lightning.  Wrong forum, but sleet can be fun, especially thunder sleet.

I don't think I've had thundersleet since January 26th, 2011.  

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15 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Didnt know they still existed. Those are great for storms that are well east if you still want to find a model that will show Snow. Guess they can be used for trends as they are a blend of the short term models that run with the Nam

Likewise, the plumes are always just fun to look at though . For example the mean in Scranton is 22 inches including one model that gives them 15 inches in three hours!  Best here is 8 inches in 3 hours, which would still be incredible lol

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18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

FWIW the “wall” of heavy snow we need is setting up pretty well down in MD and VA. 

I am seeing very light snow begin here.  There is steady light snow falling to my west between Allentown and Harrisburg.  Visibilities that I am seeing in those areas look to be about 1 - 2 miles along I-78.  Along I-81 to the south and west of Harrisburg visibilities drop off steadily.  I am seeing 1/4 mile visibilities as you go down towards MD.

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Have seen 12z/16 EC..enough to keep me thinking ice and packed snow LI/NYC sometime later tonight but it goes back to all snow by 5 or 6AM i think and snows another inch or possibly 2 in the city 7A-9A.  I could see snow amounts capping 8-12" inland I-78 I to I195 due to sleet.  Also think  1 hr flash freeze (8F temp drop self defined for parts of NYC Monmouth County when the wind shifts to n around 5or 6A 33-25).  IF that happens, bad news for bridges and rails. Again, FOLLOW NWS.  This is just something the models have been trying to hint at for a number of cycles.

One other thing: EC does not have thunder.  But per multiple models I see qpf suppression in an area w of I95 and near I78.  These things happen in big storms and NOT predictable yet where they will occur.

Nothin here yet. 119P and off line til 2PM ish

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In JC here. I am not liking the 850/700 temps. 

Surface temps are fine, but I think there is a huge bust potential here. My experience from warm noses like this are they usually over perform and tend to creep further North and West than predicted. The 9-13in here is in serious question.

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20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro looks good

I'm such a weenie. I have a few paid subscriptions lol. 

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-8195600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-8206400.png

Nothing wrong with a clean hobby Anthony. If you fished, hunted or golfed you'd spend a lot more, trust me ( and no I do not hunt or golf, but I have enough fishing rods to outfit a whole party boat )

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