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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020


wdrag
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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm still amazed how a low that far inland can produce snow in NYC. Must be because of the strong high and the elongated low

I think if the low is where the GFS places it, the only hope for snow is a quick front end. A low over Delaware is going to give coastal areas a more east wind than Northeast, that means ocean air. Maybe some more snow as it pulls away.

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The GFS has slowly come around to an extent on the idea 02-07Z near NYC is dicey on ptype.   This run just about has rain at JFK for a brief period 
I noticed that. But again I wouldn't really rely on it for temp profiles especially when they will be right around that 30 degree mark around the city east.

Sent from my IN2017 using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I think if the low is where the GFS places it, the only hope for snow is a quick front end. A low over Delaware is going to give coastal areas a more east wind than Northeast, that means ocean air. Maybe some more snow as it pulls away.

With the low SW of you yes, winds would be ENE. NAM forms a coastal front that brings Montauk up to the low 40s at 9z Wed. Same time NYC is maybe 26-27. It's had this the last couple of runs. Eastern Suffolk would likely be rain in whatever precip is falling then. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

With the low SW of you yes, winds would be ENE. NAM forms a coastal front that brings Montauk up to the low 40s at 9z Wed. Same time NYC is maybe 26-27. It's had this the last couple of runs. Eastern Suffolk would likely be rain in whatever precip is falling then. 

If the low is SW of me and it is December with milder water temps., I'm very concerned. I hope the GFS is wrong.

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Just now, Barman49 said:

The low is slightly NW and the precip shield is farther north but it's also bigger which is why it's north.

Sent from my IN2017 using Tapatalk
 

For 5 days it had the low 100 miles south of all other guidance and it's northern precip field was a joke. It's been a train wreck with this storm until it finally caved earlier today. 

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2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Maybe this is the weenie version but fwiw (not much) it only rains on the barrier islands.   

 

 

508f7fc8-56b3-42e7-a874-fd19b9d10357.gif

We can guess as to what's more accurate but the NAM has a pronounced warm nose at 750mb by 6z Thu that the GFS doesn't have really at all. That's why it isn't showing much or any sleet. Winds keep a northerly enough component for most to keep it snow therefore for everyone except the twin forks maybe. Big time winds too, probably 50+ mph gusts. That would be blizzard conditions. Unfortunately especially with the mid level warming I believe the NAM more. 

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6 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

We are getting slammed, looks like all snow in the city and Island. 12-18 a good bet right now, the warm tongue aloft is being overplayed.

Look I hope your correct but with ocean temperatures well into the 40s and a low near the coast or even slightly inland, how does Long Island get over a foot of snow. We need the low offshore with a Northeast wind, not an east wind which is what it will be if the GFS is correct. Hopefully the Euro stays more offshore and ends up being correct

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Just now, JoshSnow said:

Don’t worry I can’t steal your snow you’re in a great spot. I’m stealing Albany’s snow right now 

Huh? it's just a bad model and it performed miserably. Euro, CMC, Ukie, all outperformed it. Even Nam and RGEM who were out of their useful range had a better handle on things before GFS. 

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