Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[nycsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The usual flood prone spots like Freeport could approach low end major flooding. Especially if the low tucks in and slowly crawls east early Thursday. Also looks like coastal sections may approach HWW criteria.

http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/

 

Tough for upton do you go HWW or blizzard warning because it still is gonna snow 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Really hoping the HRRR is out of its ideal range but it has us dry slotting and showing us the finger rather early

 

 

Yes-it won’t be useful until tomorrow. 

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Really hoping the HRRR is out of its ideal range but it has us dry slotting rather early

 

 

HRRR shouldnt be looked at until tomorrow.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Tough for upton do you go HWW or blizzard warning because it still is gonna snow 

For it to be a blizzard you need the conditions for 3 consecutive hours. Probably won’t happen since the most intense winds might correlate with the dryslot or mixing. 

[nycsnow]

Euro and ukie continue to show incredible winds nyc east 

[nycsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

For it to be a blizzard you need the conditions for 3 consecutive hours. Probably won’t happen since the most intense winds might correlate with the dryslot or mixing. 

The euro and ukie have a long duration wind event 9pm-6am but yeah I guess we shall see

[nycsnow]

Upton could technically wait till tonight to issue a warning as well to see if this warm or change over trend is legit or just a blip 

[weatherbear5]

For what little it’s worth, the 18z NAM is much less aggressive with heights along the East Coast

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, JoshSnow said:

It’s still going to snow and it’s going to be probably the biggest snowstorm of the year. Maybe we won’t get the 24 inch snows we wanted but a foot looks likely for the city!

I’d say the odds of a foot in Central Park are under 30%. If I had to say a number there I’d say 7” of snow and junk mixed. 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said:

For what little it’s worth, the 18z NAM is much less aggressive with heights along the East Coast

Def a positive start hopefully 12z was an over correction 

[Sn0waddict]

NAM looks a little less amped up to me.. will see how it translates but it would be great if it moved more towards euro type solution. 

[NJwx85]

[nycsnow]

Need the nam to head ENE which it might if so we’re OK!!

[David-LI]

According to 18z NAM city should be seeing its first flakes at 6 pm tomorrow. Gonna be nice to watch the snow fall and accumulate with all the holiday decorations around.

[RCNYILWX]

Tough for upton do you go HWW or blizzard warning because it still is gonna snow 

For winter weather headlines, the winds typically get grouped into the WSW. You wouldn't issue a HWW on top of a WSW, similarly wouldn't issue a Wind Advisory on top of a WWA. In our bulleted current text products, an extra bullet for additional details might be included that mentions the 45-60 mph wind gust potential. The one location it's probably tricky is out east on Long Island where changeover should occur quicker and amounts might not reach warning criteria but the winds do. My guess is because the snow/mix would be impactful enough plus the damaging winds, might do a WSW for simplicity. Not speaking for OKX though, just speculating based on how my office and surrounding offices typically handle multi faceted winter events.  

 

 

 

 

[nycsnow]

Just now, RCNYILWX said:

For winter weather headlines, the winds get grouped into the WSW. You wouldn't issue a HWW on top of a WSW, similarly wouldn't issue a Wind Advisory on top of a WWA. In our bulleted current text products, an extra bullet for additional details might be included that mentions the 45-60 mph wind gust potential. The one location it's probably tricky is out east on Long Island where changeover should occur quicker and amounts might not reach warning criteria but the winds do. My guess is because the snow/mix would be impactful enough plus the damaging winds, might do a WSW for simplicity. Not speaking for OKX though, just speculating on how my office and surrounding offices typically handle multi faceted winter events.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Awesome thanks! The winds have been the most consistent part of this storm lol... models havent wavered on a pretty impressive wind event jersey shore up to nyc east 

[nycsnow]

Yep nam going to be better !

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Need the nam to head ENE which it might if so we’re OK!!

Eventually it will when it encounters the block/confluence. Better call is it has to before we’re flooded with warm mid level air and a dryslot. 

[weatherbear5]

It’s amazing how different the height fields look on the 12z vs the 18z. Bad data must have gotten into one or the other. It’s absurd how volatile that change is in 6 hours

[NJwx85]

[jdj5211]

keep seeing that dry slot move in....not sure if it's real or not yet...

[nycsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Eventually it will when it encounters the block/confluence. Better call is it has to before we’re flooded with warm mid level air and a dryslot. 

Nam is doing it and no real deadly dry slot so far 

[nycsnow]

Just now, jdj5211 said:

keep seeing that dry slot move in....not sure if it's real or not yet...

It is not nearly as bad as last run

[weatherpruf]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d say the odds of a foot in Central Park are under 30%. If I had to say a number there I’d say 7” of snow and junk mixed. 

I'd take the 7 of junk after the last two years....it would still be the biggest event in years.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Really hoping the HRRR is out of its ideal range but it has us dry slotting and showing us the finger rather early

This will be the first winter storm for the big HRRR upgrade a few weeks ago. It will be interesting to see if further development down the line replaces the NAM. Heard a while back that the NAM may be discontinued next few years 

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn20-46rapv5_hrrr_v4aab.pdf

[Barman49]

Does that jump west again at 34.  Otherwise it looks SE and better until then.

[wizard021]

get that pink south please away from me.

[weathermedic]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The usual flood prone spots like Freeport could approach low end major flooding. Especially if the low tucks in and slowly crawls east early Thursday. Also looks like coastal sections may approach HWW criteria.

http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/

 

Saw tidal flooding this morning along Brookville Blvd in Queens. Was about a foot of water on the roadway with the lunar high tide. Can imagine that would be impassable if the storm does what it’s supposed to do. 

[jm1220]

Just now, jdj5211 said:

keep seeing that dry slot move in....not sure if it's real or not yet...

It’ll be real somewhere for sure. The strong mid level lows mean there’ll be a huge front end hit of snow where we can make it happen but also dry air circulates in behind it. 

[wizard021]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

It is not nearly as bad as last run

give me heavy snow please