Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020


wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the last time we really had to worry about confluence here was 2-6-10. But that was a -5 AO vs  -3 now. Most of the time for us the correction is more N and W with amped systems. That’s  why some of our best snowstorms on record were modeled 3-5 days out to crush Philly or DC. But then corrected north in the short term. So a day 5 forecast with the mixing just to our south usually shifts further north in the short term. So now it looks like mixing will be an issue near the coast following the initial front end thump.

speaking of the ao its forecast is to rise to near neutral and go negative again stronger than now...one member even goes past -5sd...Iwishfull thinking there...another storm could effect us next week or after Christmas...rain/snow???

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, weatherbear5 said:

GFS VERBATIM, is predominantly snow for central Long Island, based on soundings

I would give it a 5% of verifying that way though. The models ALWAYS under-do warm air intrusion in the mid-levels

Verbatim (laughable of course) the mid level lows seem to track in a way that keeps the mix and dryslot just south of the island. The mix becomes a problem when you start having strong southerly mid level winds. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

And this is why you can't trust the GFS especially when it is on its own. For 5 days it was 100 miles south of practically every other model with the low and then moved it east, and was showing a pathetic and incorrect northern extent of precip. Look at it now. It gives me 18 inches after giving me 2 inches for 5 days. POS. 

The GFS trending north eventually was as predictable as Anthony hoping for a blizzard.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, North and West said:

We got around a foot with that one out here.

5-7 here and not much south the issue there was the officials held onto the big numbers for these areas even though it was clear it wasn't happening, because they didn't want people going out in a sleet fest. I would hope they at least let folks know when they know this time.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Verbatim (laughable of course) the mid level lows seem to track in a way that keeps the mix and dryslot just south of the island. The mix becomes a problem when you start having strong southerly mid level winds. 

Which is what the warmer NAM solutions had been forecasting.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Reading some from the NE forum many seem to think that the models have over corrected too far NW and will come back some to SE.... 

i think this just proves we have a generally negative outlook as a group.  just about everyone on the forums wants the snow, and [almost] everyone has doubts for their backyard

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Reading some from the NE forum many seem to think that the models have over corrected too far NW and will come back some to SE.... 

What is that based on?

I know every storm is different but once the north trend starts on all models within a couple of days of the event, I don't ever recall those trends reversing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

What is that based on?

I know every storm is different but once the north trend starts on all models within a couple of days of the event, I don't ever recall those trends reversing.

Models do have a tendency is over correcting its happened many times and I believe Typhoon Tip made some good points about it... can't find it though now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...