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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020


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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The dry slot magnified.

rgem_mslp_pcpn_neus_43.png

Wow jeezus you can get killed in some countries for making that hand gesture.

 

Mixing issues aside, the dry slot is hard to nail down but the models have been honing in on it and so far it doesn’t look great for the metro area.

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

snku_acc.us_ne.png

Kuchera ratio RGEM is still showing a pretty good snowstorm before the changeover to sleet. Not the blockbuster snowstorm, but I'd still be happy with a good 8 inches of snow. Hopefully this is about as warm as the solutions will get, rather than continuing to fall apart at the last minute.

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Just now, romba said:

Wow jeezus you can get killed in some countries for making that hand gesture.

 

Mixing issues aside, the dry slot is hard to nail down but the models have been honing in on it and so far it doesn’t look great for the metro area.

That dry slot is literally giving us the finger :lol:

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Remember when people said this couldn't happen. 

It's almost not worth it to bank on anything too many days before a storm. Outcomes that change a lot from computer prognostications are common. Predictive science is taking a beating in recent years in more than one field. 

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8 minutes ago, sferic said:

Is the Kuchera method tied in to higher snow ratios?

If not, what is its purpose and is it ever right?

Higher and lower. It doesn't go with the standard 10:1 and accounts for higher or lower based on temps and other conditions. So in this case it would show lower snow amounts and not count sleet in snow totals. Right now Kuchera NAM and RGEM are still giving my area (north-central NJ) about 8 inches of snow. Really hoping it won't continue to trend worse. Will be interesting to see if GFS and EURO still show the bigger snow solutions. Hopefully NAM and RGEM are a little too amped.

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Wow....everyone needs to relax for a minute. This is ALL about the placement of the 850mb low. That’s it!  That’s what’s causing the difference in the models. They’re simple trying to resolve that placement. Take a look at that precip shield on the NAM with the moisture plume coming out of the gulf about 12 hours before the storm gets to us!  The cold air is in place, the block is in a good place. This is a monster storm for mid December. Unfortunately, it’s a nowcast situation as we watch the development. However, in my opinion this is an all snow event from PHI/NYC north and a mostly rain event for SNJ and the coast. The question is what happens in between?  Where does that mixing line set up? 

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I still don't understand how you get 2 feet of snow in Albany with a 1038mb high parked over Quebec. Just doesn't make sense to me.

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_3.png

The confluence seems to be departing as the low is coming in. It’s also a very strong mid level trough that tries to amplify. We need the confluence to stay strong to force the turn east. Been that case for days. 

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9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Remember when people said this couldn't happen. 

I thought the trends weren’t great for Albany yesterday when the confluence looked better and the trough not so amped. That looks to be changing so their chances go up big time. That area from Albany to State College would get annihilated if the Nam/Rgem are right. 

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