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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020


wdrag
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Slowed down too much + confluence exiting = bad news for the coast

At this point, we hope that the front end dump is intense and anything after it is minimal. You can still get several inches of snow from this kinda thing, but it won’t be 12-18

Sad, this was looking so promising for so long

 

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I still think NYC and surrounding except E LI will get at least a foot.  The cold high means business.  Keeping fingers crossed that everyone on this forum gets at least 10 inches.  God knows we are due after last year, but I take nothing for granted.  Getting high snow like this a week before Christmas is very infrequent.  I am going to savor this! 

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Yesterday worried about confluence and northern fringe areas of the subforum and NAM now has precip up the Canadian border. What a trend...

Without this confluence this almost certainly would be a cutter and most of us would be all rain. In a Nina this is what happens. Every storm will try to cut due to the SE ridge. 

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3 minutes ago, sferic said:

looking good for me. you, me and @snywx

Someone across CPA probably steals our jack and gets the 2' but I think we're good to go for 12-18. 

 

1 minute ago, snywx said:

Winds may not reach criteria for our region .

I don't think gusts get over 30. My point and click for tomorrow night is 10-15 gusts 25. Power issues should be quite limited but nonzero--we can be thankful the ratios will be good here.

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Without this confluence this almost certainly would be a cutter and most of us would be all rain. In a Nina this is what happens. Every storm will try to cut due to the SE ridge. 

Its honestly amazing given recent trends that the 32 degree line is still basically over the city. That shows the power of this high.

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Certainly hope you're right. We definitely could see a tick back SE today hopefully for the reasons you mention. 

But even the amped models aren't all that bad for the NYC area especially. 6z NAM is about 12" in NYC (which actually is more snow than 0z run had), but the 700mb low goes north which means a huge initial thump to a dryslot. Much of the period that would coincide with mixing would be light precip in the dryslot, and then some snow as the low leaves. 6z RGEM also about a foot in NYC, 6z Euro about the same? The cold dry air should be our savior for at least that heavy initial thump, and the mid levels don't look horrible unless the WAA there is being underdone (which is possible). 

The big winner though is shaping up to be central PA to perhaps the I-84 corridor where that 700 low track means a heavy high ratio snow band forms and pivots there. Trying to think of the last time State College PA had over 20" in a storm-may have been March 3, 1994. 

January 2016.

Still a good analog in my view. We have a warmer version of this... Shift everything ~50 miles northwest..

C8376EC6-EB5D-4975-BA1D-346295608441.png

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2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Its honestly amazing given recent trends that the 32 degree line is still basically over the city. That shows the power of this high.

Yeah unfortunately though the more amped trough means a lousy setup aloft. Quick dryslot and warmer mid levels I would guess. The fun few hour thump can hopefully still happen here but looks like a good amount of sleet gets pounded in or it really is just a few hours to the dryslot. 

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18 minutes ago, Juturna said:

Everyone jumping ship from one run to the next

It's not jumping ship. The trends have moved away from big snows at the coast, it's not just one run. 

As I said last night, this is looking like a quick 4-8 inch thump around the city then dryslot or switch to sleet or drizzle. The forecasted 12+ inch amounts seem highly unrealistic unless you're 30-50 miles north of the city.

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